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Orbital Sciences Corp. Message Board

wright.tom64 188 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Aug 17, 2008
  • Reply to

    OT

    by wright.tom64 Dec 28, 2014 7:54 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 29, 2014 7:39 AM Flag

    Yes it could. I know the board is about Magellan but a bit of a distraction now is not going to bother anyone nor is it going to have any effect on the world oil market.

  • Reply to

    OT

    by wright.tom64 Dec 28, 2014 7:54 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 28, 2014 10:20 PM Flag

    Wow, bitter and not a Seahawk fan.

  • wright.tom64 by wright.tom64 Dec 28, 2014 7:54 PM Flag

    SEAHAWKS RULE! On to the second round of the playoffs with our first round being a bye.

  • Reply to

    tom

    by networthgrowing Dec 26, 2014 3:16 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 27, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    Have never seen anyone rack up so many thumbs down in a short period of time as you avi. And I did not even join the parade. Are you so bitter that you cannot even wish others some good fortune during this time of year?

  • Reply to

    tom

    by networthgrowing Dec 26, 2014 3:16 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 26, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    Good. I think that is where their focus will primarily be and I would suspect they already have decided on how to deal with the required 2 million to Celtique. 10 million to fund solid growth should be a small burden to bear and I honestly believe we will have higher oil prices (70-80 per barrel) within a year.

  • Reply to

    CAPITAL RAISE

    by muckahoy88 Dec 26, 2014 8:00 AM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 26, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    Took great joy is making the thumbs down count go to 10. You did not even address the question I posed which, all too often, is par for the course for you.

  • Reply to

    Rig count

    by skatz50 Dec 25, 2014 8:23 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 26, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    The perfect price buying point is often the enemy of a good buying point. Mid 5's are good enough for me. But, indeed, no one can be sure where the price will end up at any given time.

  • Reply to

    Rig count

    by skatz50 Dec 25, 2014 8:23 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 26, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    Much of that news may already be calculated into the stock price.

  • Reply to

    CAPITAL RAISE

    by muckahoy88 Dec 26, 2014 8:00 AM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 26, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    Who is going to buy these new shares being filtered into the market? If the situation is this dire, it would seem that there would be few if any buyers especially for the number of shares being posited by some on this board. My guess, if there are eager or even just willing buyers, is that they see a company on the edge of having far more value than the market would currently indicate and thus would be willing to take the risk. Magellan is not far from selling at book value right now but your point of their cash burn is troublesome.

  • Reply to

    Shelf Registration - issue up to $100 equity

    by muckahoy88 Dec 25, 2014 11:19 AM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 25, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    Use it as they need but not for salary or bonuses unless revenue increases even more from solid achievement. For example, signing a deal to get CO2 supplies should not result in a bonus at the end of the year. The CO2 offer is on the table--either do it or don't but do not expect huzzahs in the form of more moolah to management.

  • Reply to

    Merry Christmas everyone

    by mrsports90210 Dec 24, 2014 9:30 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 25, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    Same to you mrsports. How anyone can give a thumbs down for your wish that everyone have happiness only shows the immaturity of that "thumbs down" poster.

  • Reply to

    Semantics

    by wright.tom64 Dec 24, 2014 12:43 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 24, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    I think the shares went from about 35 to 53 cents and then down along with nearly all other shares of small explorers. Central is producing and does have reserves although who knows if they will pan out. Perhaps the 20 million (which was about 18 million US) at the time is the only value Magellan will end up with but that is not certain as no one can tell the future. Maybe oil rises, maybe Central gets bought out, maybe they go belly up. Magellan owns no reserves of CTP and in that you are right. But they have the right to certain financial gains under the deal given specific benchmarks so, if those reserves pan out for CTP, Magellan can benefit. Only time will tell.

  • wright.tom64 by wright.tom64 Dec 24, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    Am going to admit that avi is correct about Magellan not having reserves in Australia as part of their 11% shareholding in Central Petroleum. They do not own the reserves (Central does) any more than shareholders own the reserves of Poplar. Magellan owns them. But, Magellan will or can benefit from Central's reserves if and when the share price in Central rises or production from the Surprise field or Palm Valley or gas from Dingo reaches a certain level. In fact, Suprise is producing, Palm Valley is operating and Dingo may be in the near future. So, at the CURRENT TIME, Magellan is not benefiting except to the extent that they received millions in cash (which they are using) from their original deal.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    For what it is worth

    by wright.tom64 Dec 24, 2014 8:24 AM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 24, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    My bad. ATK is actually a couple dollars higher so perhaps 35 is more appropriate. A lot depends on the value of Vista (sporting goods spinoff) compared to the left over tech/defense portion of the current ATK. Of course arbitrage is always about analyzing risk so the author's analysis of the tech portion vs the sports portion of ATK may not be accurate.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • wright.tom64 by wright.tom64 Dec 24, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    Seeking Alpha article this morning values Orbital/ATK at 35 dollars a share. Was written when ORB was about 24.70. Article is a pretty good explanation of the merger arbitrage concept. Hope the author is right altough I think the value of ATK has dropped some since the article was written so makes his calculations somewhat less. I would guess about 32-33 dollars per ORB/ATK share assuming the merger gets the vote it needs.

  • Reply to

    RESERVES

    by networthgrowing Dec 22, 2014 2:59 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 23, 2014 9:03 PM Flag

    Little picture was comment about oil in Australia stating it was 0. That was incorrect. Also, declining reserves may be a mistake as well from your side of the big picture. Proven and probable is going to rise over the next few months especially if the flow test in the UK is successful. Please stay on point if you are going to comment about my reply to a specific allegation by phony carson.

  • Reply to

    RESERVES

    by networthgrowing Dec 22, 2014 2:59 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 23, 2014 7:18 PM Flag

    BOO! Phony carson tries to impose his ignorance on the board. Read the latest press release from Central Petroleum "carson without a cr" and you will see that oil is being produced from the Surprise field and pipeline construction from the Dingo gas field has begun. Also directors have taken a one year cut in pay and some employees have been furloughed due to lower oil prices. Natural gas is sold from Palm Valley at set prices so downturn in oil price is not affecting those sales although they are not as large as CP would hope.

  • Reply to

    A nice Christmas present would be

    by wright.tom64 Dec 23, 2014 8:50 AM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Dec 23, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    Which appendage, besides you avi, wants to grinch up my Christmas wish? Two thumbs down? I am crushed.

  • Santagellan reporting solidly increased oil flows from the CO2 wells.

  • wright.tom64 by wright.tom64 Dec 22, 2014 6:16 PM Flag

    Is there a metric that would give us a guideline as to how much of the estimated 5.2 million barrels from zones in the UK of this porosity and maturity? For example, if 20% is recoverable, then Magellan might have a share of perhaps 375000 barrels. No one knows for sure what that might be worth a year or two from now if the well is put into production or what might happen if the next well drilled with Celtique shows more mature and porous zones.

ORB
29.32-1.00(-3.30%)Jan 28 4:01 PMEST

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