A small rebound at 195, maybe trying to re-test 200, based on some "rumors". Then another round of sell-off coming.
There is probably no recession this year, so the real crash has to come later, but I might be wrong.
between US, EU, and Asia market.
between SPY and oil and bond
The last time we have such strange and massive relation was 2009.
The Fed cannot handle Lehman in two days, they can not handle Briexit in two days either. This is just common sense. Buying into a dead cat rebound in face of mounting uncertainty is just foolish. The buyers will run away 10 times faster.
The trading range for the next four days will be 195-205, depending on which rumor is coming out at any given moment. Most likely there will be another dead cat rebound tomorrow due the three stooges meeting tomorrow.
This is a typical dead cat rebound.
The theme for the rest of the day and into next week will be "sell first, ask question later".
If Brexit does not happen, it is a non-event. If it does happen, it is a very negative event.
People are buying a non-event with close 50/50 probability. This is panic + craziness.
Come on. It won't happen. The market has already voted. The big players have already decided, the gov around the world have already sanctioned the result. The best thing you can expect is a false rumor on poll number today.
Sell whatever short position that you might have tomorrow pre-market, and go long for the LONG weekend. New high of the year is just around the corner.
Then we drop.