It's actually quite the opposite.Commerial traders like JPM have been covering shorts & adding longs for the past 3 months. Silverseek posts a beakdown of the COT report every Friday. In the silver futures market on 12/4/12 commercial traders held 96,924 short contracts & 38,410 longs for a net short position of 58,514 contracts. As of last week those numbers were 81,957 - 52,774 = 29,183 net shorts. Speculators have been the ones adding large numbers of short contracts. It has been alleged that the commercials are using high frequency trading & layering (issuing & then immediately canceling orders) to take out stops, allowing them to cover.All they'd need to do is give the "momentum" traders a little "nudge" to get them to add a significant number of shorts. (just look at all the recent postings saying silver is going to crash & it doesn't seem that far-fetched does it?) Anyway, silverseek's archives go back to Nov 2003 & in all that time the lowest gross commercial short was about 48% of total open interest. As of last week it was about 55%, down from near 70% in Dec. IMO we're very close to the bottom, but I expect them to take the price down a bit more next week as there's an FOMC meeting the 19-20th. Open interest is fairly high so if this is the bottom I don't think we'll be here long. This is all, of course just my opinion, not to be taken as investment advice. good luck
been looking at the latest COT report. interesting thing happening in silver futures. commerials have been closing short positions & adding longs, while small specs are doing the opposite. not saying it's written in stone, but in the past this has happened before significant moves up.
yeah ....silver to $20 ..........that's why swap dealers are currently net LONG over 8000 futures contracts. gee...when was the last time swap dealers were buyers? oh, that's right.. last summer!!
they came to the party late.......now that it's over , they don't want to leave! where were they when SLW was $40+???
gee.... I wish I could see a "better housing market" in my neighborhood. Our insurance company estimates replacement cost of our house at just about double the market value. hmmmmm......
a couple previous "death crosses" for SLW:
10/4/2011 SLW closed at $27.45, 11/7/11 about one month later.....$37.10 up 35%
4/19/2012... $29.51 and a little more than 6 months later 11/1/12.........41.14 up 39%
I'll take my chances, especially with the current COMEX COT numbers being what they are.
if you go to Westport-hd site they show current avg. diesel price as $3.85 vs. $2.87 for LNG. On a 3000 mile trip at 6 mpg you'd burn 500 gallons. $1925 (diesel) - $1435 (LNG) = $490 savings.
Well, if you look at it over a 1 million mile life, or about 7 years at $20,000 that's about $140,000 or almost the cost of the truck. Buy one get one free?
Remember the infamous Blythe Masters interview where she said this?
"If you see only the hedges and our activity in the futures market but you aren't aware of the underlying client position that we're hedging, then it would suggest inaccurately that we're running a large directional position," she added. "In fact that's not the case at all. We have offsetting positions. We have no stake in whether prices rise or decline."
I actually do find her statements half believable. The "offsetting positions" is probably pretty truthful, IMO. The "on behalf of our clients" part: not so much. So they make money on price movement, whether it be up OR down. I know that a lot of people watch the net commerial short position #s , but for a while I've been looking more at the small spec positions since I started wondering WWJ(PM)D? What Would JPMorgan Do? As such I see a possibility of low $27.xx in the short term with a bit of sideways movement to follow before we break to new nominal highs. Looking to add a few shares within the next week or two.
Look who's back:
yeah yeah yeah..... we heard this all before. you're a 2 term viet nam vet, Roman Catholic,a drunken sailor, You LOVE the United Socialist States of Amerika, the POTUS and the FLOTUS, illegal immigrants, conservatives are evil....blah blah blah now go take your meds.
the low may not be in just yet. there's another FOMC meeting next week. after that we could reap our reward.
COT report came in with numbers relatively unchanged. Looking for a spike low in silver next week around the time of the FOMC meeting.