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wulfadams 451 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 2, 2013 12:19 AM Member since: Oct 3, 2000
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  • wulfadams wulfadams Mar 2, 2013 12:19 AM Flag

    Thorazine is harsh unless amended with a generous beaker of Nyquil and a dollop of HGH. Even at proper balance it is best to avoid shellfish and kale for several days.

  • Reply to

    Can we see 17 today?

    by avinash2070 Feb 6, 2013 8:51 AM
    wulfadams wulfadams Feb 6, 2013 11:12 AM Flag

    Yes, though you may have to switch to a different symbol to do so. FIO, for instance, is around $17.60.

    One of the most disappointing things about tech firms is that the promise is often greater than the delivery. It is great to have eye-popping revenue growth but if the company is worth less every successive quarter, there begins to be a problem. Fortunately, most of the execs have portions of their compensation tied to results that are directly related to the color of ink on the EPS line, so it should self-correct over time. Just not quickly enough to let the price fall to a more rational level.

  • Reply to

    One man's garbage is another man's gold

    by loneplains_drifter Feb 1, 2013 1:29 PM
    wulfadams wulfadams Feb 2, 2013 1:26 PM Flag

    loneplains,

    There is a thread below yours where several folks mention buying in much higher and hoping to sell once they can clear a few more $; others just throwing in the towel. Others have lost faith and will move on, shorts will cover with a satisfied smile. The full spectrum of hope and fear, smug mistrust and a new whiff of doubt that all must sense if not quite believe.

    In that kind of scenario, it is hard to imagine any near-term catalyst that will chug this up above $20 other than a surprise PR piece that will come out of nowhere. Faced with such a situation, I'm torn between averaging down and just bailing at this level and waiting for a month to get back in. Locking in a loss is sometimes good tax policy. My risk would entail that element of great news that would - KA-CHING - send the buyers back in. In that the company did not see fit to preannounce the bad news, it would be cruel to announce major good news before next earnings, three months away.

    So, to your point as to whether this is gold or trash, that depends entirely on circumstance and situation. If I had the expertise and industry familiarity to have no concern whatsoever, it would be easy to double or triple down. Lacking that certainty and even though I agree with management's explanation(s), I will not make this an outsized weighting. Whether I'll sell and take the loss, buying back proportionately more shares at this new lower range remains murky right now, though that would be my intent.

    There is always risk in these investments and we are wrong to assume that everything will go smoothly or as projected. My Father worked with agricultural interests all his life and there was always the risk of a crop failure or hail or even that a slowing economy might depress consumption. In instances such as these you dust yourself off, consider the situation and begin again. FIO again? Why not?

  • wulfadams wulfadams Feb 1, 2013 2:29 AM Flag

    Jlb,

    I agree with what you said in general. The trade today was of dump, cover and accumulation. The analyst action was mostly designed to cover their own exuberance in earlier opinions - and whatever negativity they dropped today can be easily retrieved as soon as they are more certain that the quarterly miss in guidance was as described, simply a question of timing.

    I was riveted by the overall caliber of the analysts who were asking the questions on the CC. These are big players, not the fellas with an office in Orlando and Phoenix. Clearly, the investment community that follows techland waiting for The Next Big Thing has been circling this tree for awhile. I didn't count the number of callers, but if there were four downgrades and one lonely vocal supporter, there were plenty more who didn't issue a peep - apparently not having enough of an altered opinion to verbalize it.

    Wall Street protects its own interests first, and no one would like to take credit for recently steering clients into FIO, it is prudent to tell them to Hold until more clarity is certain. And they will be bugging FB and Apple and very other likely customer for details over ramps in purchasing before pounding the table again.

    Management sounded supremely confident that such 'faith' was well-placed and I tend to think they may be right. And while we try to think who else could be as large a fish as Apple in the data pool, that is like Thomas Watson never guessing computers could become commonplace. It stands to reason that every business with enough usage to support a server could benefit from faster, cheaper and more flexible storage technology.

    The risk here is seemingly always what we do not know. Is there a crack team at EMC working on something similar and with a massive development budget? After all, in tech, there are rising and fading stars all the time and the trick is to be solidly sure of the ones you invest in. I was resigned to selling until reading the CC carefully for weakness that I did not find. I was prepared today to buy, but only if the discount was compelling. I may never get the chance (hard to tell with all the covering). But I say this is still a winner.

    And, in the spirit of seemingly everyone else, I think there is a big buyout coming from U-Haul. Moving and Storage is their next big concept. Or not.

  • Reply to

    I am getting sick and tired

    by craigseller1981 Jan 25, 2013 12:03 PM
    wulfadams wulfadams Jan 25, 2013 2:31 PM Flag

    Craig,
    I hear ya. Could not believe when the dotcom bubble blew that all the stocks I'd loved treated me so badly and all at once. This is not that event by a longshot, but it did teach me to diversify both out of tech and into different concepts involving tech. The argument for investing in index funds is that at least you can keep up with them market. The argument against it is the same, you won't EVER beat the market, which is a trader's goal.

    Apple isn't dead, just has shifted from being a growth story priced cheaply to a value stock priced cheaply. There are still plenty of shares that will change hands as growth people give up on that notion and value investors decide AAPL is safe. The suppliers you mention sell into the phone sector, which is still robust and they should recover, some of the others just have bright futures if the premise becomes reality. That is what investors do - sift through the many to find the few.

    Good luck.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Goog does half of Apple and shares go up

    by genesis_gekko Jan 23, 2013 7:22 PM
    wulfadams wulfadams Jan 24, 2013 1:21 AM Flag

    Ah, how soon we forget... Most of the other former largest market cap companies are still around. Did the world end when they were toppled or did reality at their true potential finally arrive at the share price? Consider: Exxon, IBM, Microsoft. Even Cisco at one time. The mighty AT & T, now scattered,
    Wal-Mart, whose growth continues, but slowly. GM? Not lately, just as Philip Morris is... in ashes.

    Is there ever really a company with such lofty potential that it deserves such a great multiple? No, because growth is finite. There was a time when Southwest Air was worth more than all the other airlines together. A good reminder of why buy and hold may not work.

  • Reply to

    byk444 is really an annoying little kvnt

    by whatafvkingidiot Jan 23, 2013 6:23 PM
    wulfadams wulfadams Jan 23, 2013 6:34 PM Flag

    Background checks?

  • Reply to

    Changes in payments after BLUE MONDAY

    by desantis.william Jan 23, 2013 5:03 PM
    wulfadams wulfadams Jan 23, 2013 5:20 PM Flag

    Nope, just blue spam.

  • wulfadams by wulfadams Jan 23, 2013 1:31 PM Flag

    John Shinal, a tech writer, just posted a story on Market Watch on how Android may/might/will put a squeeze on Apple. Worth a read for anyone long and hopeful. He suggests the conflict will determine which company becomes the largest tech powerhouse.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    WILL TRY TO SELL GOOG BEFORE THE WEEKEND

    by zvtglwj Jan 22, 2013 8:04 PM
    wulfadams wulfadams Jan 22, 2013 11:03 PM Flag

    You should get an online account. It is really easy to buy and sell whenever you want.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy Now Thank Me Later?

    by gavinsox Jan 7, 2013 9:19 AM
    wulfadams wulfadams Jan 7, 2013 1:09 PM Flag

    Hey out... I see your point about SAP. The buyer would probably need to be HP to overpay by that much - maybe Oracle on a dull week.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • wulfadams by wulfadams Nov 16, 2012 12:49 AM Flag

    This is a friendly question, so please respond accordingly. I moved to the Seattle area from NY, knowing that there had been quite an explosion in microbreweries in this region. Most places in NY focus more on imported beer than anything local other than the standard nationals. You can imagine my surprise at the refrigerator case of a smallish grocer with 150 craft bottles for sale and the likes of Red Hook, Widmer, Alaskan, Rogue Ales, etc. I think you could spend a couple of years just doing an in-depth comparison. One of our favorites is from a tiny brewer in Snoqualmie, Wa.

    But isn't that part of the problem? Most of the beers are pretty good or they just fade away quickly. That leaves a bunch of good stuff on the shelf and no particular reason for one to start to dominate the consumption. There seems to be a thread of speculation that if someone large bought a small firm, that would assure it product placement all over the known world and instant success. That overlooks one of the appeals of craft beers in that people like them because of a notion of locality. No one in Phoenix gives a rip about how Widmer is from Portland but they might warm up to something from Flagstaff (the AZ town, not to be confused with Falstaff, the beer).

    So how does BREW become more like SAM and less like the dozens of other breweries all hoping to get large enough to have a fat footprint on the drinking population? It would almost seem easier to assemble a collection of regional breweries and stop worrying about the national market - just be strong wherever you are.

  • Reply to

    Warren Kanders to Acquire Safariland

    by rymaloof Jul 30, 2012 9:21 AM
    wulfadams wulfadams Aug 2, 2012 8:26 PM Flag

    My thought is not much. BD is recreational sports and this is more in the quasi-military angle. I'd be treading carefully in that direction as I think, post-election, there will be some effort to reel in the acquisition of military-style equipment by general consumers.

    My actual feeling for BDE is I hope the interest in these active sports has remained high despite economic hardship. It probably is a good time to acquire young companies with bright prospects that are not flourishing as well as they might in a more robust environment. When the bad music finally dies down, these small ventures can thrive.

  • wulfadams by wulfadams Jul 11, 2012 5:09 PM Flag

    I was recently through Wallace, Idaho and saw the offices of Hecla. It was one of those ah-ha moments when I wondered about their potential. Digging deeper - as much as someone can with online research - I sensed this was a good play from both a contrarian and fundamental angle. But the stock behaves badly. Up when it seems surprising and down for reasons we can only guess at.

    All of us would like to believe that the future is rosy for our choices but there are significant gusts from overseas and our own economy that are making this summer challenging. I even unloaded a couple of 'safe' positions (Ebay and Lowe's) today because while I think they are not risky, a 10% eventual decline is still a loss and will represent a better entry point later.

    With this company (and no, it is NOT a POS), the best strategy seems to be buy when you can't believe how low it has gone and sell when you are feeling relieved at a decent rally. The price action gives plenty of opportunities to find entry and exit points.

    The market is waiting for resumption of activities at the ID mine before rewarding a higher value. There is a bit of ??? risk that is priced into the shares right now. That may be the time when gains are registered in dollars rather than dimes. Right now, shoot for dimes or quarters.

  • Reply to

    this blows

    by mopsu28 Jun 1, 2012 10:32 AM
    wulfadams wulfadams Jun 8, 2012 8:21 PM Flag

    "Cash flow is positive because they are borrowing from their revolving credit to meet earnings."

    - Oh Lord, you never even opened the cover of that accounting book, did you?

  • Reply to

    Other Ideas

    by mike5885 Feb 27, 2009 3:53 AM
    wulfadams wulfadams Feb 28, 2009 1:04 PM Flag

    Now hydrologists have been trying to figure out how to get more water for years. One thing they discovered is that water flows not only through the rivers, but also - albeit much more slowly - in the soils and sands below.

    Las Vegas, Tucson and Phoenix are cities that get lots of their water from these underground aquifers. The water is replenished when it is wet (not often!) and seeps in though these metro areas have undertaken fairly harsh measures to limit water use by citizens. The generally sandy or gravelly soils in the West are more likely to hold such large reserves of unseen water.

    During the recent drought cycle in the West, Colorado undertook a very strict policy on how some farmers used water. If you've ever flown over that country, you can see lush green circles from the air where an enterprising farmer has sunk a well and used one of the rotary sprinklers. This was often done on land where there was no existing water right to free-running water. But it was ruled that the water IN THE AQUIFER was not theirs to use at will. Some of that water was destined for use for downstream municipal or other wells.

    So, for a couple of years, there were farms that could not produce crops because they were not allowed to run those pumps unless they BOUGHT water from someone willing to sell it, but there isn't much of that during a drought. There is a market for water such as that. Not much gets wasted.

  • Reply to

    Other Ideas

    by mike5885 Feb 27, 2009 3:53 AM
    wulfadams wulfadams Feb 28, 2009 10:27 AM Flag

    This is a real sensitive issue in the West, where water rights are a big deal. Generally speaking, whoever developed the first property on a stream or river has right #1. That does not mean they have the chance to claim 100% of the water, just that in a dry year, the folks with less senior rights will be the ones who may not get their allotment.

    Cities and towns, sometimes in combination with one another, usually have their own drawing rights. In a dry year, they may have to buy surplus water from someone with better rights and those sellers are sometimes forced to sell that water.

    There is no water cartel that holds those rights that I'm aware of - most ranchers or farmers need what they have to keep the value of their properties.

    When a town has grown and needs more water than they have been allowed, they have to negotiate with someone higher up the water chain and buy those rights and build storage reservoirs - often buying several properties to accomplish this.

    This has been a thorny issue in Colorado, where most of the population is on the east side (Denver, etc.) and most of the precipitation is on the west side. All of those east-side cities have acquired western water, but the west-side interest have increasingly demanded their own storage facilities as part of the deals to make sure they are protected in dry years as well.

    Throw in state and federal oversight to make sure the stream runs have enough water - and at suitable temperatures for fish, and you can see why it is a complex issue. Add in the many dams that were built for hydropower and it gets even thornier.

    More to follow...

  • Reply to

    h grant - OT

    by minnesotafarmcountry Feb 25, 2009 12:43 PM
    wulfadams wulfadams Feb 25, 2009 3:16 PM Flag

    I think CBI has put in a double bottom here.

    http://i154.photobucket.com/albums/s253/LenDt64/BigAss.jpg

  • wulfadams by wulfadams Feb 23, 2009 9:09 AM Flag

    BMO Capital Markets upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform. It was their only recommendation in this sector - at least so far today. They downgrades three healthcare stocks, including Humana, to Underperform.

    True, such recommendations are not the basis for cashing in your Mom's home equity, but always nice to have one fall on your side - if you are sharing the sentiment.

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