6 points in 2 days is certainly a good reason. Plus, A Signal paid 3 points in 1 day all by itself. Great reason to cover and take some off the table. And we're right back to the a Line in the Sand. It wants 52 but not quite yet IF we get another sign. Play Safe.
Good stuff as always, Duke. But where does the US consumer fit in this story. Flush with newfound capital thanks to these lower commodity costs, does he spend more both domestically and around the world. Or does he just stick it under his mattress or in The Bond at negative returns. Would US consumer spend be enough to offset lost GDP from higher US export expenses and lower oil and gas capex. Or, what IF we find a happy medium and oil goes back to 80 during its typical spring boom, only to settle back to 60 in perpetuity.
I don't know when this stuff comes to a head. I'm just thankful The Duke shares his views with all of us. Cause I sure as heck won't see it coming. All I know is we are trading on the wrong side of the historical average S&P valuation. Have been for a while. Whether we do that for another few days, months or years, I do not know. But that is something I can and have been prepared for.
Frank - it's been a fun time back. Last week we dusted off a few old favorites long TSLA and NFLX, into and then off of my favorite pattern like a spring board. 2 and 3 to 6, then 9 and 10. Big winners. And left plenty of names on the table. Same to the downside in names like ZOES and GPRO. Cleared out of most all remaining longs in FB and AMZN this AM but left the runners for the rest of week. They can go to zero, or they can add to Santa's big bag. Seems this has been one of those times to make some real money. Only get so many of those per year.
Merry Christmas to all. And to all a good night.
It ain't a bad strategy. Use it for CORE positions myself. But to say you're after 100+%, while short-term traders are ONLY stockpiling 20-30% wins is the wrong way to look at it as far as how the 'other half' lives. For starters, string a few 20-30% wins together and you still get to 100+% in a very short period of time vs having to wait long term. Further, forget 20-30%...what if I were to tell you that some trading gameplans involve making 100+% in days or weeks with far less capital at risk than you. Just have to crunch a few more numbers than that valuation stuff and learn some signals. And sleep better at night.
Congrats on a great 20 years. Here's to hoping you have another great 20 years applying the same strategy.
No position in FRSH. But the company has no growth potential and no moat. A Cashless kind of stock. You want to trade it on nonsense, be my guest. Trade it to 30+...then we'll consider a position on the Darkside.
Zero Payout –
Here is your dilemma to come. The Plan depends on more of you buying the dip at today’s prices on the ‘Low Gas Price’ story. Look, it’s a great 2015 story but don’t expect it to necessarily kickstart 2015. For one, oil prices will likely go thru their spring boom and the consumer tax break theory will get put to the test. Under this scenario, I would expect oil to then roll over again to $60. So what happens to the reason to own ZOES IF oil goes back to $80+. What do you do with all those excited purchases at $30 when the stock is trading at $20-23. Maybe you do nothing and have a long-term horizon. To that I say great. Stand strong in your ZOES conviction. But let us then see what happens at $15. You may never sell. I would expect nothing less from a Strong Bull. But a lot of folks like you will IF put to the test. Put the story in reverse and ramp the stock to start 2015. Doesn’t matter. Until someone rocks the boat, the gameplan remains. And under either scenario, the stock prints $23. Or even worse, the $15 IPO. It is destiny or whatever other fantasy you choose to believe in.
Cashless will tell you I am still waiting for a setup. He doesn’t understand what ‘Straight to 25’ or ‘Know The Numbers’ means, nor does he understand how trades like this are put on. In other words, as a legendary trader once said to me, he does not know what he does not know.
It is unfortunate, Ray. But there has been nothing to see in SIRI for over a year. That is the problem with a Fear of Elevators.
As I said yesterday BEFORE the takeover chatter, The Target is 1.35. It remains. Turn on some 5SOS and have some fun.
Well, good thing we hung on. What a day. Big winners in some old favorites. Add on an old favorite pattern...might they have a second or even third day. Yes Virginia...
You're not thinking about HOW a business deal like this might be structured. You don't just get to dump stock on the open market like that at whatever price you want, especially not shortly after an IPO. You think WS would just allow you to make a mockery of its business. No, you MAKE A MARKET. Like I said, it is just the cost of doing business. Think about WHO owns the stock at WHAT price. And IF you think there were 10-12M sh worth of willing buyers at 30 and 32 at this valuation on a story that is asking you to wait 3 to 5 years to get paid, well then go with that. I do not. I believe there are more folks unwilling to wait the 3 to 5 years and we are on a path to weed out those investors.
Now Cashless has stalked me from the NDLS board. You see, at 40, NDLS made the same deal with the devil. I said the stock was on its way to its IPO price at 18 as a result, and that I would like to BUY the stock for a long-term play (like you with ZOES). Said my plan would execute at every 5-10 lower in pyramid fashion. So 35, 30, 25, 20 and 18. For me, the plan worked better than expected because of a gap down open right through 25. So the price action allowed me to skip the 25 buy altogether and instead executed around 21. Then 20 and 18 as originally planned. Guy likes to tell the story differently but he has trouble with the little things.
You are focusing too much on Cashcrack and less on what I told you was happening to the stock. IF you didn't take me seriously before, this week's price action should tell you it is at least a high probability the game I explained to you is in play. Know The Numbers.
Didn't realize anyone even read Time magazine anymore. The last thing you want is to be associated with a diet. Diets are fads. Every single one of them. Instead, take a walk.
Jed Clampett holds The Key to what's in Santa's bag. Would have the same effect as the S&P trigger. An old favorite pattern. Unless of course Mrs Claus has something to say about him giving away too many toys away this year.
What do you have for 1947. IF this one fades to black, we roll back there this week. The premium on the S&P puts Telling a story that Big Bear is going to win big.