Unsurprisingly, like every other Bear you have the story completely backwards and have for quite some time. Coffee drinkers have already scaled back trips to SBUX to brew their k-cups at home instead. Once the next gen Keurig machines brew lattes, then the next set of SBUX consumers begin scaling back the SBUX visits. These one-off machine lemons are completely made up for by Keurig if you were to ever call and complain about the service. IF you just walk away from the k-cup experience entirely, then you weren't going to give the transition a fair shake to begin with. Doesn't matter. In time, the rest of the Jones families will bring you right back to the SAME CONCEPT. The Bull has at least another 3-year flight path in Partnerships alone. IF you want to bet against it, you need to actually have a wheels-falling-off story. You can't just make one up with GAAPuccino presentations anymore.
Consider the term Source of Capital. FB is a great one at present. Nothing wrong with that. Instead of being played, just play the same game.
Or how bout this one...the longer the base, the higher the space. So excited you should be to see the same numbers for days and weeks and months on end.
Here's a better idea. Go back and read my 'So What IF...' post. It's a Win / Win. KO figured out it has to start making moves. Slow and boring eventually goes out of business in our Zero Sum World. MCD only needs to consider a carbon copy move.
BTW, Primanti Bros does great sandwiches. WW was born wearing Black and Gold.
So dead wrong I told you that the SIMPLE TRADE sent the stock straight to its IPO price of $18 to start a Long Pyramid. Pretty sure you don't understand SIMPLE, let alone have anything close to resembling Street Cred. But you guys keep patting yourselves on the back with nonsense like this stuff. At least we all can have a good laugh at it.
XM ch 2, 3, 10, 11 and 12. Ch 11 and 12 aren't really SIRI to blame since they are KIIS LA and Z100 NY but the programming on those channels is still worse with MORE commercials so they are just about irrelevant. One (ch 3) turned 'current' hits into relatively 'older' current hits. IF I wanted to listen to last summer#$%$ today, I would jump in Bill & Ted's phone booth.
SIRI likes to admire GOOGL's YouTube for its music discovery model. But they actually had an underrated set of channels that provided for some solid music discovery of its own because the programming was fairly current and constantly changing. But that is long gone. Now they're back to the 'old radio' guard that plays OLD music and hasn't a clue about current music. Instead of Simon Cowell-like talent, they have something more like Jimmy Iovine. And there is a big difference between the 2. Don't get me wrong, there is still plenty of stuff to like on SIRI. It's just that for music programming, they have been going the wrong way since Mel left. And they need some creative help.
Thanks for the well wishes gentlemen but it’s actually with good reason that I step away for a few months.
WW leaves the last of the SIRI trade yesterday at 3.57 from 3.02. Planned to wait for my favorite pattern, but the Stochs and MFI are too hot too handle too cold to hold, and I’m not Actively participating anyway so as good a time as any for me to step aside. It was a long 4 month trade. The Duke would likely say WAY TOO LONG but like I said before, the SIRI short-term game became too difficult for me some 18+ months ago so I was forced to shift to an intermediate-term game. As always, thanks to The Duke for filling in the blanks as to WHY it became too difficult for a guy like me.
What to make of the 3.52 break out. Not all that much volume behind it so little more than just another number to me. D says SIRI becomes a short at the next Flabby line(s). I see them as 3.57-3.61, using the 2.95 or 1.78 Lows. It would make for a nice trap door set into the 3.52 break, though nobody seems to be playing that. Time for a 3.60 or even Golden Crosses Trap? On the flip side, IF Fozzy isn’t careful SIRI could make a pain run all the way to 3.90 or even a convenient stop-sweep thru $4 on this breakout.
I can tell you one thing anectodally. SIRI, the product, gets worse by the day. I know I complain A LOT about them not making the leap and all but they’ve recently done something even more disheartening related to music programming. Now ALL of their CURRENT HIT channels are fairly irrelevant. It pains me to say it, but it is true.
I’ll see you, in September…There is danger in the Summer Moon above.
I remember the days well. 100 points of upside later - yes 100 points - WW is one of the few Longs left laughing.
Don't expect NDLS to have the same meteoric ride in the next year or anything. But it can certainly get back to $45 pretty easily IF the company delivers better SSS growth again or WS figures out or decides to bless the REAL long-term story here again. WS took advantage of folks by dumping ridiculous valuations 'stories' on this sector. Now it's time to weed out the weak stuff first. NDLS will survive this common practice and ultimately thrive. Just needs time and cycle turn.
How can you expect anybody to take you seriously when you write nonsense like this. Insolvency? Right. Ever heard of a term called access to capital. You really believe one of the best potential growth concepts in the sector doesn't have it. Another Bear with analysis clouded by judgment and nothing between the ears.
Like I said, straight to $18 and right according to plan. Ain't gonna lie. It was a bad report. But it was expected by EVERYONE. Sometimes it really is just that SIMPLE. So the $35 and $30 buys are long gone for now. Cashless is laughing but he doesn't realize Longs are also Short against the box so the short run does not matter. We likely won't see $35+ prices again til 2015 or beyond, but know this is a long-term game all along and the company hasn't changed its long-term growth plan.
Now here is the best part of my Pyramid Plan. We get to skip the $25 purchase altogether. That's right, straight to sub $20 overnight. So you save yourself a lot of money by being patient. Amazing right. So now what we do is buy the open sub $20 and then the IPO at $18. So you swap the $25 BUY with $18 and save 7 bucks. Then $15, then sub $10 IF this short term game needs further pain. Depends on how many shares we free up on the IPO strike. Best of luck. While the Bears are celebrating by telling you every hour just how right they are, WW The Bull puts concrete, actionable facts and targets right in front of your face in ONE SIMPLE MESSAGE. Best of luck.
Oh, it gets seen Frank [lol]. It's pretty much the only thread every week worth coming back to. Plus, I typically click on the names of a lot of the guys around here I chat with every now and then to see what they're up to if I don't find a msg board topic of interest or hack to have fun with.
I didn't have much to offer the thread this week. Besides, didn't mention this before but I have moved to a Passive, even more selective position (more Off than On) in the market. And as I have been telling Duke, my Cash position continues to mount. Personal reasons took me away from the game a few weeks ago and it'll remain that way til closer to the end of the year. Time will tell whether this was a Lucky move or whether the Same Game will be waiting for me when I return Actively. So I'll be following every week...just more as time permits or in off-hours. Best of luck to you and the gang.
There are Heroes and then there are corresponding Villains. Pretty sure everyone here can figure out who's who. We all play our part.
I can't help it you're stuck in a lab all day with beakers and bunsen burners. IF you actually listened carefully for a change (something guys like you and Cashless clearly struggle with), I also told you I sold the CMG stock thru $100 on 2 separate round trips and now only trade its options. So why don't you instead laugh at me for selling way too soon. Call me old-fashioned but I refuse to OWN pieces of paper of companies that refuse to split their stock and don't pay you income to hold that same risk. I'm usually pretty early on this stuff. It takes folks like you quite a while to catch up.
Right. It is so weak that EVERY SINGLE DAY it is AS jam-packed as the CMG right across the street, and has been this way for years. The attendees are the Cools, Families and the rest of the Young Money crowd. Frankly, I don't expect you to ever understand any of it, Cashless. I mean, the best pick you came up with to me is FRSH for crying out loud. Look, this SAME CONCEPT allowed me to buy CMG less than a decade ago sub $50. SAME CONCEPT that allowed me to buy GMCR hand over fist sub $25. And OUTR sub $25. And the list goes on. I do this stuff over and over...and over again. Save another market disaster in the next 1-2 years, I will do it here again sub $35. Market disaster, and it takes 5-10 years as well as an even lower and better starting point. I run into guys like you on these boards every single time. You are a dime a dozen. That said, I know guys like you are an integral part of the process so more power to you. And best of luck riding the Simple Trade, for now.
Course you're not going to walk me through it. Already knew you wouldn't. Doesn't matter. I already gave you the simple math. IF you can't do a walk-thru on the back of an envelope in less than 5 mins, then you're right, it ain't worth my time.
The ironic thing is, we're on the same side for now. Yet for very different reasons. You think it's fundamentally driven. I believe it is market mechanics. Happens all the time. Short to $18 is still the Simple Trade in play. I have already outlined and planned for this long ago on this very board. And I'm the long-term BULL here.
"You think they'll beat but they need to show 10% same store sales increases to justify its PE."
This statement makes ZERO sense. Do you even do the math on this stuff or just throw out biased comments without a calculator on a regular basis. At $28, they trade at 43x on 30% expected growth. So 1.4x its expected growth rate. IF it were trading on a bubble basis, it would trade AT LEAST greater than 2x its growth rate. Quite simply, a Bear market would bring less than 1x and would mark the wonderful buying opportunity Bulls like WW are patiently waiting for. Not to mention, these numbers are based on the company ONLY returning to a historical SSS trend of 3-4%. IF they were to do 10% SSS, the stock would skyrocket. Just goes to show how very little the Average Bear knows nowadays.
Not sure what the problem is. We agree. The Simple Trade is to 18. We just have a difference of opinion on the reason. No worries. We all win in this scenario.
Immune, Einstein? You're kidding right. NDLS has been crushed going into its report on the back of a hideous warning from PBPB that does not translate to NDLS. BWLD soared into its report. It delivered strong SSS but expectations were clearly too high. There are nothing but downbeat expectations on NDLS. My kind of story.
Look, BWLD has been a great stock for a long time. I would know as I have owned it for a long time. The WW's eat there from time to time. But it is on the wrong side of the growth cycle, whereas NDLS is just getting started.
Pleasantly surprised myself. Been a Long and boring ride, but still on board. Holding out hope the company gets the message and comes up with answers to all of my questions.
Hey Frank -
Nice to see you come full circle sticking with the AMZN bet. Not sure you saw, but I was on the other side for the 20 point on a Friday week. FWIW, two things I have found with AMZN. It used to enjoy Tuesdays and every once in a while it really has fun on a Friday. In any event I left it at that and had no exposure going into its report. An everybody wins scenario.
I have believed TSLA has a similar 20 point move to the upside in it that is long overdue. Thought it would have been last week, especially considering they moved up their report. Instead, it forced me to hit 3 100% roundtrips playing home on the range. IF it sells off going into its report, it may pants many a bear on reporting day. But now after the AMZN 'headline' collapse, I'm a little wary they both could be on a path similar to NFLX circa 2011. You know, the one where we fill some gaps and reload for the next leg back up. I mean, both companies truly have remarkable futures with all they have going in the next 5 years. I can see why EVERYONE would want to reload. I can also see storylines setting up to crush one if not both within the next 6 months. And the good news is IMO, neither one would need The Duke's prediction to come true to occur. I don't know if this 'headline' stuff continues or is short-lived. But other than a TSLA bet this week or next, I'm gonna let the dust settle on them a bit to see if there's more to it. Also watching another MoMo, NFLX, to see if it begins to erase its breakout. Like Duke says, changes everywhere. Fun to watch.
While I agree with your sentiment, one thing I believe a little differently is that The Fed is a dictatorship. When push comes to shove, it only matters what JY says/does. The others are there for show to make us believe it there are many voices as well send smoke screens/signals.