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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

wwtimewarp2000 148 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Jan 19, 2005
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  • wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 15 hours ago Flag

    We are human after all, so we like to apply the same pattern to become self-fulfilling prophecy. I get it. WW likes simple trades as well. So here is one for you. 2 quarters ago, FB made you wait 3 days before giving you a small 2 day rally. And then it collapsed to fill its earnings gap days later.

  • Reply to

    cmg down, ndls down

    by cashback_7 Apr 28, 2016 10:10 AM
    wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 15 hours ago Flag

    This assumes NDLS continues its failure path and trades to a buck. In this scenario, would agree. We all are aware of the connections. But where we differ is on NDLS concept as viable.

    Why the good doctor here is worried about spending a third to half of his daily caloric intake on dinner. What in the world he eats during his other 1-2 meals every day I have no idea. Maybe he should consider taking a walk once in a while. I don't know. Earn more calories.

  • Reply to

    FB question for a stock market pro

    by fartnose1 Apr 28, 2016 8:13 PM
    wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 18 hours ago Flag

    You need non-GAAP. Ideally, it simplifies one-time, non-recurring adjustments to provide a smooth and realistic look at earnings growth over time. Market participants need simple. In the case of SBC where they continue Q after Q, you have a growing company that is hiring new people and expanding its business. So in theory, the company will grow large enough where SBC as the primary difference between GAAP and non-GAAP will be minimal. At least that’s the hope. So when times are good, market is willing to give growth companies a pass on this difference. Because it is looking long-term and considering the payouts to employees as all part of the growth process. Who knows where it will all end up 5-10 years from now. But that’s the Bull bet and why all of these companies can get away with it. Now that can all change if/when market or stock goes Bear. But you let the market tell you when that change occurs. You will miss some points. And that’s ok.

    You are wasting your time trying to explain away the difference. Any way you slice it, FB still shows significant top and bottom line growth in a world of stocks that are starved for growth. It is all relative. Remember what I said. Understand what metrics are important to your stock at any point in time. This GAAP difference stuff may matter in future. Just not today.

  • Reply to

    FB question for a stock market pro

    by fartnose1 Apr 28, 2016 8:13 PM
    wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 29, 2016 4:37 PM Flag

    The main culprit here is Share Based Compensation Expense. Paying employees in shares is a common loophole many companies in tech la la land use to show higher non-GAAP eps. It's what drives Bears insane talking about GAAP this and that, as the company is diluting shareholders in the process. I don't disagree with their premise. But WW says, you don't fight a trend. Let the market tell you when GAAP matters. It could be tomorrow. It could be 10 years from now. For example, AMZN hasn't worried about GAAP profits for over a decade. And the stock is $650. So nobody cares. The important thing is to understand what metric(s) drives each stock. Until that changes...

  • Reply to

    Duke: The Return Of Marco Rubio--Part 3

    by dukeufinstu Apr 24, 2016 9:35 AM
    wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 28, 2016 3:27 PM Flag

    Here we go. Perfect timing for the Bear Bat Signal. Last one was a trap. Sorry Ms Jackson, this one’s for real. The ER turns the early sub release into Known Knowns. A close under 3.96 today gets it done.

  • Reply to

    FACE BOOK TRADING LEVEL

    by cashbar1 Apr 28, 2016 8:42 AM
    wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 28, 2016 12:39 PM Flag

    Looking like WW will get this one wrong. Can't get everything right. The recipe is right there. Problem seems to be BOJ getting in the way. A report like that should have been worth another 4-5 points of follow thru. But I guess the AH 4-5 points thru the ATH will be good enough for now.

    AMZN even presents a win/win for FB. A miss, money goes from AMZN to FB. A beat, and it rallies the only 2 names in town. But again, doesn't look like it will matter. BOJ owns the moment.

  • Reply to

    Today is free Depends Day at Walmart

    by wallstreet.wizard Apr 28, 2016 9:46 AM
    wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 28, 2016 9:50 AM Flag

    The good news is, when they lose the mansion, they can sleep in WMT parking lot for free. Efficient access to depends aisle.

  • Reply to

    FACE BOOK TRADING LEVEL

    by cashbar1 Apr 28, 2016 8:42 AM
    wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 28, 2016 9:48 AM Flag

    Sure old 52-wk high test makes sense. But 118’s may be best test you get today. Only game in town. WW already has one trade in the books 69c to 1.12. Add that to the 110/117 spread win overnight, locked to 117 puts in the Can’t-Lose Trade. How many hits will we get by Fri.

  • Reply to

    FACE BOOK TRADING LEVEL

    by cashbar1 Apr 28, 2016 8:42 AM
    wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 28, 2016 9:16 AM Flag

    No such print as 121.90. At least not yet. But who cares. At least you followed along with WW this time. There weren't many of us Longs going into this one.

  • wwtimewarp2000 by wwtimewarp2000 Apr 28, 2016 8:56 AM Flag

    Lets say you listened to DB and like their oil derivatives trading book, woke up this AM staring at a mountain of losses. No problem. WW has the solution for you. Buy the Rip. Not a single tech company had a solid Q. FB crushed it. So for a few days, EVERYBODY rotates out of bad tech and into the ONLY good tech name this Q. Simplest Trade there is.

  • Reply to

    FACE BOOK TRADING LEVEL

    by cashbar1 Apr 28, 2016 8:42 AM
    wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 28, 2016 8:51 AM Flag

    Remember what WW said. You bet with your conviction and IF wrong, you do the opposite. WW crushes it Long. Today he buys puts to lock in the gains for rest of week. IF you were a Bear, you Buy the Rip. Nowhere to go but up. 125 by Fri. Simple Trade.

  • wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 27, 2016 4:27 PM Flag

    You should know what I think of CMG. Been playing from short side since 600. Was late to the party. But fashionably and a lot of fun.

    An interesting idea but CMG in too much trouble to make such a move. I know they tell me customers are coming back after the free meals and all, but I just don't see it. A desperate move to ramp up other concepts would be a double-whammy. Makes more sense to me to see them continue to spend every last dollar on store safety measures, customer retention and sh buybacks.

  • Reply to

    ANY CHANCES FB BEATS EARNINGS TODAY?

    by barfrausa Apr 27, 2016 5:06 AM
    wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 27, 2016 4:16 PM Flag

    Wow. They took a page out and announced one of those things. Sorry Bears.

  • Reply to

    ANY CHANCES FB BEATS EARNINGS TODAY?

    by barfrausa Apr 27, 2016 5:06 AM
    wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 27, 2016 10:07 AM Flag

    A beat is a given. The real question is, will anything they have to say even matter.

    Now IF all the lost ad spend elsewhere is funneling to FB and they see it in the data, they need to tell that story. Would be a Gamechanger. That or something else. WW can think of a few things they could say. Otherwise, they let it be and it goes to Par. Might not be a bad thing either. Non-GAAP fun only goes so far.

  • wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 27, 2016 10:03 AM Flag

    Cashless -
    Most times, your jokes are absolutely awful. Comedy ain't your thing. But every now and then you pull a rabbit out of the hat to make this fun. Unfortunately, this ain't one of those times.

  • Reply to

    Did You Get The Message

    by wwtimewarp2000 Apr 22, 2016 11:44 AM
    wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 27, 2016 9:20 AM Flag

    OK. So you had 3 days to play Bear. Just like WW said. Fri was a lot of fun. But did you continue to make hay while it was raining. Nobody is safe. FB could be next. Remember, DB really needs this one to pay. Very important. So Bulls have that going against them.

    By Fri, FB gets 115 or 100. Your guess is as good as mine. WW was once a confident Bull. Now, he is a cautious one. Best way to play is to bet your conviction and roll the other way IF wrong. For those of you that need me to spell it out, that means WW will be Long into the report. And IF wrong, you Sell the Dip. Like NFLX and GOOGL before it. Works until it doesn't.

  • wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 26, 2016 1:43 PM Flag

    Nah. Adam Sandler told them 15 years ago. But it takes big companies and old white hairs a LONG time to catch up.

  • wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 25, 2016 10:59 AM Flag

    Still in concussion protocol but too stubborn and stupid to walk away from the game. Would agree that nobody buying this shop. Though MCD SHOULD consider it. Families are NDLS primary customer base. But they won't. Took them years to listen to WW to sell breakfast for dinner.

  • wwtimewarp2000 wwtimewarp2000 Apr 22, 2016 4:11 PM Flag

    S&P Golden Cross or fail and roll over. Perfect timing. This should be fun to watch. WW now back to 50% cash at 2100. Other than the specific trades in the pits, will watch this one from the sidelines and give up the 34 points if need be. Bulls been in total control since Feb. WW was late to the party at 1920 but been committed to the trend since.

    My glasses are a little cloudy so going to wait and see mode. 2134 appears to be the Simple Trade on the surface. Oil recovery, rate raises on hold, US dollar down, and China less bad. Took all the Bear arguments out of play. Need new ones or bring some old ones back into play. Otherwise, the grind higher continues. Maybe Duke will give us something more to chew on on Sun.

  • wwtimewarp2000 by wwtimewarp2000 Apr 22, 2016 11:44 AM Flag

    You have 3 days to play Bear. You don't have to get it all today. GOOGL gave you the free pass. What worked on the UPside for all of 2015 can work on the downside as well. Understand that. Nothing in your way til end of Tues. Doesn't change the play for next week. Just the starting point.

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