Know nothing character? Right. JC gives a lot more info than given credit for. So what else did he say about NDLS. Concept is RIGHT for the time. But not execution. And just wish someone else would have come up with the concept. Now who else has said this same thing over and over...WW.
The ONLY reason was for the CMG blood story. You know, the ONLY reason why SHAK is able to trade on nonsense opening up 10 stores every year for as far as the eye can see. The Blood means EVERYTHING. Only problem with Reddy's blood is, he hasn't learned anything about sitting in the Captain's Chair.
Well that's great, Jimbob. You deal in opinions. I deal in facts. It is 2018. Without those patents, every knockoff tastes like a knockoff or doesn't maintain freshness without additional sealing storage, etc. So waste of time. HS figured it out years ago. You have not.
Maybe this post was too long for you too read. Already sold some shares at 130+. To wait for $85. And here we are. So what do you think I'm doing now. Buying under 92.20 to 85 and will buy down to 75 and lower IF it breaks down from there. It only breaks down lower IF the company doesn't fix these problems. I'm merely telling ANYONE that will listen what the problems are. Maybe the company will do something about it. It's not the first crossroads for the company and not the first time WW had something to say about it. Last time, they addressed each of my concerns admirably, head on. Lets hope they do the same here. And for the record, I believe they will.
I am very familiar with the Skip The Trip concept comparing SBUX to GMCR. Spoke of this concept often when GMCR was trading south of $25. Back then, WW used to laugh at all the Einhorn followers saying GMCR was STILL a great short. They had no clue what was happening.
And I wholeheartedly agree that the Kold machine has the selling point that nobody wants to buy the cases and liters anymore. But they aren't capitalizing on this opportunity with this price structure. There is a big difference between $5 to 50-75c and $1-2 to $1. And at these suggested price points, you don't get the RAPID, MASS INFUSION of customers that the coffee machine experienced. That is the problem. Everybody expected a plan for a big, sweeping change in the way people will consume cold beverages. Need to bring the price down or it remains a niche product. People are already moving away from soda. They need a reason to come back. Kold COULD be that reason IF they follow the NFLX or AMZN, or even their very own coffee model. I know why they botched the price. KO. It's time to break exclusivity and bring in PEP as well. Give KO this ultimatum or to just buy the company IF they think they know better.
Agree on SODA. Same reasons WW has been a Bear on that for years. Kold makes sense. But the price needs to be fixed. There will be plenty of time to raise the price to $1 per cup down the road.
Pretty sure the elementary WW's can do the math here. But they must not teach that in swim school. My goodness. Really stupid.
I'm afraid your math is a bit off. At $90, KO is down a little over $50M from their investment in GMCR. Their average purchase price on their 16% stake to date is $92.20.
Part 3 –
The disappointing thing with these 2 rollouts is that it reminds of the way the old GMCR was run, pre-Kelley. Messing up, then Fixing mistakes. It’s certainly a strategy because the customer tells you what to do. The problem with the strategy is in the timing. IF you don’t fix fast enough, customers leave altogether. Or worse, it gives competition an opening to operate better and retain or steal customers. So the pricing strategy needs to be fixed. I believe it will be one way or another. But that doesn’t mean that these operational snafus won’t make for great headlines on a stock that is no stranger to them over the years. I mean, this is a passionate stock bunch on both sides. It is filled with guys that buy the stock on margin and famed stubborn short sellers and Their Following who refuse to admit they got the story wrong for over 100 points. All still living in the glory days of 2012.
WW says the downside fun stops near $75. They are still the ONLY way to drink coffee at home. TINA. And that doesn’t change until HS says it could. And that doesn’t happen until 2018. So if you’re thinking of shorting the stock from $85, you better have a Macro reason why the stock is going to ZERO. Because the Micro has support from the above levels for the next 3 years.
Sorry, you can't hear Jimmy. While I agree with your initial assessment of Kold, the company still has plenty of time to fix the pricing mistake. It could even be delayed for this very reason. I mean, that's what I would do IF I planned to soft launch it OVER-priced. Moving on, your assessment of the coffee technology is WAY OFF. The main patents go off in 2018. Schultz knows this. That is why he signed a 5 YEAR agreement back in 2013. Sorry to break it to you, but while you were burning the midnight oil in your research, you still have A LOT of research left to do.
The stock now has a credibility problem again. First they botched the 2.0 rollout. Had to know consumers would be upset so should have planned for this scenario. However, the reactionary plan was fine and a testament to a strong management team that listens to its customer base. Not completely fixed but believe the plan is on its way to transitioning the Hot system, making its legs stronger than ever before.
But then they botch the Kold launch. The pricing is all wrong. Forget about the machine price. That we can swallow though should really be no more than $199. It will get there. The real problem is with the K-cup price. Soda is even cheaper than coffee when you compare the alternatives. How on earth are you going to get consumers to change the way they consume a beverage they are already cutting out of their lives by charging 2 TIMES the cost of a coffee K-cup. I don’t get it. They HAVE to do something about this or the whole Kold system goes to ZERO, much like SODA. And the Kold story is over before it starts. To me, this says KO has TOO MUCH say in the price. Kelley cuddling up with his old employer. Time for him to take a hard stance. Either sell the company to KO or call up PEP and get the K-cup price down toward 50c. The good news is the Kold launch is a bit delayed. Another unfortunate operational disappointment, but at least the extra time allows for everyone to react to the pricing and for GMCR to see how wrong it is. Last bit in Part 3. This is worth more than 140 characters.
Remember in early 2014 when KO took its 10% minority stake at $75. Stock gapped up and proceeded to trade on the KO put as well as the potential value of the Kold system. Back then, WW said that while the stock was on a path to $150, it would get back to print $75 again one day. IF you followed WW from sub $25, then like me you continued to enjoy the ride, sold some more stock at $130+ and waited and waited and waited some more. Well, now here we are. The first stop is near $85. A gap fill play that should spark an oversold rally in the stock. Assuming KO continues to sit idly by, then we continue to $75. Told you long ago, Market doesn’t let ANYONE get an UNFAIR price. It’s bad for business. That meant that no matter how high the price went, the stock would eventually return to print $75. It only made sense. Because that is the UNFAIR discount price awarded to KO. Now KO could stop the freefall at the gap fill to $85 by just buying the rest of the company in the near term. I mean, that is what WW would do IF it were KO right now. That is the gap up open price on their initial stake announcement so that would make some sense, especially since they continued to buy the stock from $96 all the way up to $110 a few months after the 10% initial stake and then again at $130 in Feb 2015 to finish off that agreement with CS. I could make a case the stock fills the next gap to $63.50 before KO does something about this but no need to complicate the story even further. I like to keep it simple. First we get $85. Then $75. Where we go from there depends on KO or the rest of the story in Part 2.
You mean the same guy that continues to wear the HLF stamp on his forehead. No Thanks. Better to wait until he closes that position first. Then he will have earned his stripes once again.
Great point. But the Starving Artist is fooling NO ONE. Clearly nobody following WW here. Better that way. But here are the latest Calls. 77 gets 3 to 5. Last Fri close over 79.69 gets higher this week. Done and Done.
So you care about what happened 2-5 months ago. Really. Who cares. What happens this week to next.
Right. Like when it was 40 and I said it was going back to the IPO at 18. Even said back then it could see ANOTHER cut in half once we got down to the IPO. Unfortunately for Bulls, that scenario is here. And we get cut in half, to 9. Simple.
We've been waiting for that JM $3.66 retracement for about 3 months now, haven't we Duke. Guy Adami says markets never give you this long to sell, so that would imply the 4 buck breakout is an Eventual Reality no matter how many times we bump up against it and fail. Louise Yamada says the longer the Base, the higher the Space. So seems JM wants to give us that long base to trade off as well. Keep waiting and waiting to see LM pounce with CHTR on TWC now that CMCSA fell thru. I mean he said, 'H-E-double hockey stick, Yes' so what is taking so long. Tell you what though. IF I were JM, I would say forget the OLD networks. I would just buy NFLX and destroy everyone, again. Streaming Cowboy.
Around the world, this Greece stuff is just Comical. I've decided that it will NEVER END because the policymakers enjoy the spotlight too much. It gives them a reason to put on the suit, pant suit, or no suit in the case of Varoufakis. Or maybe too many are ready for a Big Selloff. So the merry go round needs to keep spinning until enough bets are off the table, more believe in the story, or the system just falls apart. And IF the EU can't get the money back, just sue every US company possible to fill the holes. Missed out on innovation and crushed your own Union. Who cares, just bring the suits. No offense to the profession. That said, after Feb's Outside Month, we have stalled the typical 3 thereafter while still printing 2 new monthly highs, albeit slight new ATH's. Tells me June has got to give one way or another. Should be fun.
What do you know, WW and the Starving Artist were on the same side of the trade again today. But I closed my shorts for the day. Likely left some on the table but you can have the PM. Now, it is all about 79.69.