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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

xdexletx 50 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2015 3:43 PM Member since: Nov 9, 2006
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  • Reply to

    WLL's calls

    by xdexletx Jan 21, 2015 2:15 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Jan 22, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    When I posted previously, I was looking at the NASDFAQ site, which didn't show contracts much above the stock price. then afterwards, they had a number of them listed up ti around 40.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • HH just got a pile of money that assures he will still be standing when the dust settles on the oil price collapse.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • xdexletx by xdexletx Jan 21, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    Just noticing that they have few if any OTM calls over the next few months. Since, the price is off several points from recent levels, that seems strange you can't bet the stock goes up over the next few months.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    i HATE TO BRING THIS UP.

    by xdexletx Jan 14, 2015 11:39 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Jan 21, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    Your's is almost unfathomable. CLR is HH's baby. He owns 2/3's of it . He will do anything to keep it from crashing. He borrowed money to pay his wife so the shares didn't get sold into the market and further run it's price.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    i HATE TO BRING THIS UP.

    by xdexletx Jan 14, 2015 11:39 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Jan 17, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    There is one salvation that is unique to CLR and that is the fact that HH owns 2/3's of it. If CLR gets into a cash bind, he should be able to easily get a couple of billion in cash by pledging some of his shares. that may be why the stock has rallied nearly 10 points from it's DEC low.

    His being able to borrow for the payment to his ex-wife showed the banks are amenable to granting him a loan.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Plans to start Gulf gas sales

    by tooocents Jan 15, 2015 8:12 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Jan 16, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    Just how are they going to start selling NG, when they don't have facilities to process the gas and get it onto an LNG carrier. TOT is at least 4 years out before they could have a plant built that could load a ship. They are probably more looking to shelve this prospect, as prices are so soft, that they can't justify spending the previously mentioned $15 billion. The only avenue IOC has for near-term NG sales is have XOM take it.

    PNG fumbled their chance to monetize the E/A wells, when they didn't have a FLNG process ship built.They could have had hundreds of $milllions in yearly revenue from its use. With their dillying, they are now in a near-term price collapse, which will restrict what they receive, if they get anything at all.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It's that simple. No one is going to drop $15 billion on a new plant when the payback is zero. As I said before, the PNG gov't blew it big time, when they wouldn't allow for a FLNG.They could have locked up the higher prices of a few years ago and be whistling all the way to the bank, but no, they had to have a bricks and mortar plant in the jungle. They are lucky they have the XOM plant providing funds., With the collapse in mining their sector there is also flat on its back. What a bunch of dummies.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • If you add up CLR's A/P, short-term debt, L-T debt and deferred taxes and deduct cash and A/R, you get around $6.8 billion in the red. Their $12 billion of Property-oil acreage has to considerably less than that. So, if it is now half, the book is essentially zero. Project the $30 oil in the Bakken and the SCOOP and they have a huge hole in cash flow. All they can do is completed whatevwer wells they can afford to finish and sell that oil. They have legacy wells that also contribute monies, but it is going to be a close call if prices stay down into the 2nd qtr.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Plunging Oil: What the Past Tells Us

    by mike.smith1979 Jan 10, 2015 6:21 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Jan 11, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    You're too funny, shorty. The transportation costs are taken off the price the producer gets. Didn't you see the mention of the net, a pipeline company gives a Bakken producer. Oil is at $50, pipeline takes $15 to ship it to the gulf refineries so a CLR gets $35/bbl.. As for refining, a small percentaghe is refined in the Bakken. Most of it is sent to refineries in the guld, the East coast and maybe out West. a small portion is sold in the Midwest, but most isn't. CLR is in trouble. Their SCOOP prospect, on which they will spend $700 MM, receivers below $40/bbl. for their oil.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    re-hedging....

    by hairyape59 Jan 4, 2015 11:31 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Jan 5, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    The meltdown continues. Lehmann esk in appearance. Someday, CLR will crash, to manys surprise.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    CLR Will Go Bankrupt !!

    by cook_in_books Dec 22, 2014 8:29 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Dec 24, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    How will they make anything spending $ 1 billion on SCOOP?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Pioneer !!!!

    by whisperingpines1962 Dec 12, 2014 12:01 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Dec 21, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    As least CPE is being realistic in their recent presentation in using $65 for an oil price. With 3,000 out of 7,000 bbls. production, they have hedges at $91. Even if the price is at $50 for a protracted period in 2015, they will have an average price close to $70/bbl. That's a lot more than others are going to get or have forecast. A number of them are still using $80-90/bbl., which is fantasy land.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I'll bet the PNG brass is kicking themselves about holding out for a land based LNG plant vs. a floating one. How much cash did they give away waiting for a bricks and mortar in the jungle type to get built? They could have had a signed deal for a lot more $$$ than they will get now. Or will the parties just walkaway. There's a lot of that happening now all over the world.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Will CLR go bankrupt

    by hufrd Dec 8, 2014 2:40 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Dec 9, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    Good dead cat bounce, but CLR, WLL and others still have to get through the maize of their debt problems with the banks. IfRrockefeller said sell oil in Sept., SA says $60 oil looks good for awhile, Bakken sells for $50 and XOM's Tillerson says "We can make money at $40"-40!, you have to know they are all out to kill off everyone they can. Maybe, EOG will get a bid or PXD and the others above, but the big boys are out to bury the rest of them.

    BO has spent tens of billions in the last decade or so and have little to show for it.They get hammered in the US from the shale pygmies and hosed by gov'ts in most of their other prospect countries. They all have to chomping at the bit to see a REP. in the WH, so they can open up full bore in the GOM and Alaska.They'll likely scoop up the cream of the gassers, as they need volume to fuel the $100 billion in chemical feedstock plants being built in the Gulf Coast area.

    I liked SWN for that, but when they bought that $5 billion in acreage from AEP-Aubrey formerly of CHK- that made me pause. It seemed like a way to make them less attractive for being bought out. Kind of a moot point now.

    The other problem that is coming into the frame for SWN in the Fayetteville and CLR in Oklahoma's SCOOP, is earthquakes. Ohio has also reported them, so you might think the BO buyouts would avoid those companies that could be subject to curtailments, unless they figure out a way to avoid them from injection wells.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Dec 6, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    It is not only the bonds, but the banks will be looking at 1st qtr. ebitda's and if they aren't 4 to 1, they could call the loans. SA said oil should settle at $60. That's the point where all the cash flow negative shale oil guys are in technical default. They can't borrow money from banks, sell debt or stock. They have been borrowing their capex from capital inflows in recent years, but that will now be cut off. Even the CLR's and WLL's of the space are basically unhedged.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Dec 6, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    Isn't CLR's problem as simple as their realized selling price for the 3rd qtr. was $88/bbl. for oil and the recent quoted price for Bakken crude was $50. Add to this the lack of hedges and they are going to have a huge problem keeping the debt to EBITDAX ratio of 4 to 1 the banks want. Throw in the likelihood of interest rates going up and they have a serious problem with enough earnings to avoid going into technical default. It is not a shock to see the problem in oil, as it is not a problem of supply higher than demand, as it is a paper manipulation, where the value of oil futures is 10 times+ the amount of oil produced. It would not be surprising to know the big oil cos. along with SA are up to their eyeballs in this game. BO gets to BK or severely damage even the best shale oil cos. like EOG and PXD, plus sweep up the 2nd tier ones like a CLR, WLL, OAS or CHK for 30c on the dollar.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It wasn't stated in the news announcement. If it is still $14, they paid $2 billion more than for the current KOG market cap. And, this in the current oil price rout. And, the shareholders got to vote on this and they still approved the deal. I am stunned. Are WLL's execs. cousins of Hamm?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Dec 4, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    A lot of conjecture here about CLR. The last crash in 2008-09 had CL bottoming around $35/bbl. The big price jump of 2008 to $147 gave the producers a big pot of cash to squirrel away. A lot of politics were involved with trying to save the world economy after the real estate disaster-crash in 2008.

    I think Hamm just blew it with his ending his hedges. Most hedges are for only a portion of production, likely around 50%. If you are CLR, you can probably tell your revolver bank buddies over lunch what you are doing. He will probably raise an eyebrow, clear his throat and finish his lunch, thinking he's HH, he must know what he's doing. I can't see OPEC or SA, reversing themselves for a couple of months, at least. These events don't happen quickly. HH has a cash flow problem and it's going to get worse and so is the stock price.

    And, just today CVX announced they had confirmed that they and their partners will have an additional 94,000 bbls./d. of production from the GOM. How many more of those are out there?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • What I can't understand is how HAL can put themselves in this position of buying a company only to see it's own stock crumble and have a $3.5 billion fee due if the merger is called off. You would think they would have the best connections of nearly anyone about what was just around the corner and then they seemingly got blown out of the water anyway. They are going to have to either drastically lower their offering price, if possible or get Baker to allow for a much lower termination fee. Or do they have a 'force majeure' clause in their agreement-hope so.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • He was on target to be the king of fracking in the Bakken. With the dropping of the hedges, he gave away something around $20/bbl of revenue. His 3rd qtr. oil price was $85/bbl on 185K/d. If he produces 200K in the 1st qtr. he will lose $4 million/d or $360 million per qtr., which is around 2/3's of his 3rd qtr income of $566 million. His problem is also magnified by over $5 billion in debt and nearly another $3 billion in payables. One has to believe selling stock and debt is also off the table. And, banks will be slow to lend, even for CLR, with the lack of hedges. This stock is going lower. Tthey have to cut capex, because they don't have the money to pay for the drilling. I can see them nearly stopping the SCOOP and cutting the Bakken by 1/3 at least. Hamm better find some hedges to buy soon, or this will rival the mess Aubrey had at CHK or worse, because at least he could sell acreage for some cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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