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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

xdexletx 56 posts  |  Last Activity: May 19, 2015 11:01 AM Member since: Nov 9, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Spread to thin.

    by xdexletx May 18, 2015 1:31 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx May 19, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    With 200K acres, not all viable, they will be massive nothing. The name of the game is to get the right pipelines to get the highest price. They still borrow to drill, so they are not CF posityive to any great extent. They still turn to the ATM every qtr.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • xdexletx by xdexletx May 18, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    GPOR has interests in Appalachian, oil sands, Niobarra and Thailand. Why? Why don't they sell out the oil sands and Thailand and use the cash to pay down debt and other liabilitites? Companies that have small varied interests never receive a price vs. a more concentrated portfolio. They don't have scale in any of the plays, even though they have a little in Appalachia. They still borrowed 1/4 of their capex in the first qtr. and spent $30 MM on more acreage. Another wannabe with little fiscal discipline. At least they have decent hedges for a year or so.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx May 7, 2015 4:08 PM Flag

    OAS held as I thought and CLR and WLL are fading, as I thought. The lack of hedges and having only 2/3's oil is hitting CLR. If prices don't top $70. they are going to come close to running out of money for CAPEX. Don't be shocked, if they do.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Low Cost Companies

    by dorkymcirish Apr 12, 2013 2:26 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx May 6, 2015 6:12 PM Flag

    AR, RRC and later this year COG, when they start approaching getting their NG into better paying pipelines. AR is going to be supplying NG to LNG cos. at Cove Point and Sabine soon.. See their presentation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Just like WLL, they will report a big cash shorfall and a huge loss along with big impairments. Looks to drop to mid to low 40's.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Apr 29, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    And how much will they have to raise prices(read, become less competitve) when they try to figure out how to get their money back. I thought AMZN was a big force in this space? You don't just plunk down $55 billion and forget about the cost of the investment. Look at Workday. They are selling their product at big losses, just to keep in the game. The only reason the stock doesn't crash is that it is majority owned and controlled by it's two founders. If was actually priced in reality it would be BK'ed. They are living off the IPO which is being rundown every qtr.

    The "winner" of CRM., if it is bought, will wreck their finances for years. I guess you are a short that wants it to run some more so you can cash in when it falls back down. If it were correctly priced, the stock would sell for $25. It has little earnings or cash flow and is living off the aura of being in the "cloud". Too funny. LOL.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Apr 29, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    No one is dumb enough to pay $55 billion+ for a company that has little earnings and no cash flow. Get real. LOL.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $605 million cash flow negative in 45 days?

    by jpham2010 Apr 13, 2015 3:06 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 27, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    You combine their cash flow shortfalls with the problems of earthquakes and I could see CLR giving back a bunch of their recent run-up. The Oklahoma Supreme Court is set to give a ruling on whether injection wells are the cause of earthquakes-you think!!! There was a 4.3 quake in CUSHING in October. There continue to be quakes North of Oklahoma City which is close to Cushing. It seems the clock is ticking down hard for this issue to be dealt with. I think the recent run-up of CLR is being done to coincide with the court ruling so they can crash the stock when earnings come out..

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    LPI 100% Production Hedged for 2015 @ $80.99

    by sairamvictory Apr 24, 2015 9:17 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 26, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    Tell me what the oil price will be and I can give some prediction. I think a lot of the oil price level depends on what happens to the producers that are living on the edge, such as Iran, Russia and the other non-GCC countries. If they fall into a revolution style meltdown as we have seen in Libya or Yemen or parts of Iraq, where production is severely curtailed, the oil supply needed of 90 MM bbls/d. has to come from somewhere else.

    Since, SA, Kuwait and UAE are producing flat out as is Russia and Iran can't add much in new supply for a year or so, the only place fresh supply can come from it the US and that means shale oil.

    I don't think LPI will go BK, but the thing most US shale oil drillers need is for prices to rise close to $75/bbl and NG to go to $4/mcf.

    Actually, the gassers such AR, RRC and COG may do better than the oils. They are increasing sales in the next year or so, particularly AR with them supplying the Sabine Pass and Cove Point LNG plants, RRC being really effiicient and COG as the pipelines they need to increase shipments at better prices become available.

    Another one to watch is SWN. They have to overcome this earthquake problem(see CLR in the Okla. SCOOP) in Arkansas, but they have 2.4 million acres in NE Canada that they will be drilling an exploratory well there this year. If that comes in and proves out a big prospect, they will get a bid.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Article

    by piatt1234567 Apr 23, 2015 5:48 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 26, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    You do realize they made that profit with $100 oil? With $50 oil and a huge impairment coming and without ANY hedges for 2015, CLR is going to even run out of their revolver/LOC before year's end unless oil prices and NG prices get to $75 and $4.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    LPI 100% Production Hedged for 2015 @ $80.99

    by sairamvictory Apr 24, 2015 9:17 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 25, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    When determining what they might earn from their pricing with hedges, you have to take into consideration the amounts of the hedges and their prices. They seem to have very good oil hedges of $81/bbl. for the last 9 months of 2015, but the NG/NGL liquids number will be a drag on earnings. Last year they averaged $5.73/mcf., but this year THEY WILL ONLY GET $3/mcf. ON ONLY 60% OF VOLUMES.This a huge falloff and will hold back earnings thru 2015. But, they still might catch a bid for someone wanting some good acreage in Texas.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    $605 million cash flow negative in 45 days?

    by jpham2010 Apr 13, 2015 3:06 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 23, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    Not to worry. When Oklahoma suspends drilling in their state because of earthquakes, CLR will save $700 million (less whatever they have spent so far). No problem. Right???

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Apr 22, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Or they are sitting it up to drop it when OKLA lowers the boom on drilling in the SCOOP, after they issue new rules for disposal wells.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Reasons for WTI price to go up.

    by xdexletx Apr 21, 2015 4:26 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 22, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    The Iran deal shouldn't allow them to increase their 'honest' shipments for awhile. With them trying to provoke a full scale war in Yemen and trying to offload weapons there , it really appears to be a dumb move, unless they want to create a crisis by attempting to block the Strait of Hormuz. The question is, what response will the US give in either case. We'll know by next week. You have to nuts to not have some oils here, with all the fighting going on all over in the ME.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Fewer drilling rigs, fewer completions, summer driving season, some cos. going under and crude topping(AKA-using new processing equipment to cheaply allow for refining sweet, light crudes into product that don't need Brent). This catching on, as for example VLO is already installing this equipment in a couple of their refineries. The payback is said to be in little more than a year, so I can see a lot more cos. converting over to this type.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • xdexletx xdexletx Apr 20, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    This will be huge, as it will allow more light US shale oil to be used in place of Brent.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    rotation

    by delldudelives Apr 14, 2015 12:21 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 15, 2015 5:18 PM Flag

    Exactly. A lot of posters think the buying is already overdone, but they don't stop to take into consideration the rotation out of specific stock sectors and into ones that have been badly oversold, as have been energy, both oil and NG.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    VOIL has no operations and 1 Employee.

    by cshanahn Mar 9, 2015 5:08 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 14, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    I also got the pretty color brochure from The Moskowitz Report. I had filed it away when I received it, but pulled it out yesterday. In reading over it, I had a flashback to another company that had acreage in the same Utah area. The Parowan Prospect, Sevier county and some other familiar names from 10 years ago came to mind. That company was Delta Petroleum-they went bust, just before the big run-up of the last 5 years. I recall they had poor drilling results in Utah and in Wash. along the Columbia River. I think they got MGM's Kirk Kerkorian to put in hundreds of millions which he lost. The big returns promised for DPTR were the same for Virtus, so be wary.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Apr 12, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    Should be $22 billion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • xdexletx xdexletx Apr 12, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    You to also notice that year-end they had 422 BILLION in liabilities. Those include not only their LT debt, but A/P and deferred taxes which have to be paid eventually. They have limited cash and not much receivables compared to liabilities. They are goping to have more borrowings for the big loss they will have for at least the next 2 qtrs. Of course, if the big money hedgefund types reverse course and go long, they could bump a lot of these downtrodded oils quickly. There has been a little divergence in oil prices falling somewhat and the stocks and derivative markets starting to show some upticks. Some said there was a rumor the oil export ban was going to be lifted, but that seems doubtful. SA is signaling they might agree to cut production( as if it matters with them already ramping it 700K bbls. over the last few months) if others follow along. They would have to really be serious, with a 1.5 MMbbls./d. themselves, to be get any agreement. I think many of the US producers are going to be able to get along on $70/bbl., which the SA and their GCC friends will be annoyed with. That would be too bad as it would have their price war backfire on them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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