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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

xdexletx 57 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 23, 2015 3:51 PM Member since: Nov 9, 2006
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  • Reply to

    $605 million cash flow negative in 45 days?

    by jpham2010 Apr 13, 2015 3:06 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 23, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    Not to worry. When Oklahoma suspends drilling in their state because of earthquakes, CLR will save $700 million (less whatever they have spent so far). No problem. Right???

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Apr 22, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Or they are sitting it up to drop it when OKLA lowers the boom on drilling in the SCOOP, after they issue new rules for disposal wells.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Reasons for WTI price to go up.

    by xdexletx Apr 21, 2015 4:26 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 22, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    The Iran deal shouldn't allow them to increase their 'honest' shipments for awhile. With them trying to provoke a full scale war in Yemen and trying to offload weapons there , it really appears to be a dumb move, unless they want to create a crisis by attempting to block the Strait of Hormuz. The question is, what response will the US give in either case. We'll know by next week. You have to nuts to not have some oils here, with all the fighting going on all over in the ME.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Fewer drilling rigs, fewer completions, summer driving season, some cos. going under and crude topping(AKA-using new processing equipment to cheaply allow for refining sweet, light crudes into product that don't need Brent). This catching on, as for example VLO is already installing this equipment in a couple of their refineries. The payback is said to be in little more than a year, so I can see a lot more cos. converting over to this type.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • xdexletx xdexletx Apr 20, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    This will be huge, as it will allow more light US shale oil to be used in place of Brent.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    rotation

    by delldudelives Apr 14, 2015 12:21 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 15, 2015 5:18 PM Flag

    Exactly. A lot of posters think the buying is already overdone, but they don't stop to take into consideration the rotation out of specific stock sectors and into ones that have been badly oversold, as have been energy, both oil and NG.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    VOIL has no operations and 1 Employee.

    by cshanahn Mar 9, 2015 5:08 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 14, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    I also got the pretty color brochure from The Moskowitz Report. I had filed it away when I received it, but pulled it out yesterday. In reading over it, I had a flashback to another company that had acreage in the same Utah area. The Parowan Prospect, Sevier county and some other familiar names from 10 years ago came to mind. That company was Delta Petroleum-they went bust, just before the big run-up of the last 5 years. I recall they had poor drilling results in Utah and in Wash. along the Columbia River. I think they got MGM's Kirk Kerkorian to put in hundreds of millions which he lost. The big returns promised for DPTR were the same for Virtus, so be wary.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Apr 12, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    Should be $22 billion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • xdexletx xdexletx Apr 12, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    You to also notice that year-end they had 422 BILLION in liabilities. Those include not only their LT debt, but A/P and deferred taxes which have to be paid eventually. They have limited cash and not much receivables compared to liabilities. They are goping to have more borrowings for the big loss they will have for at least the next 2 qtrs. Of course, if the big money hedgefund types reverse course and go long, they could bump a lot of these downtrodded oils quickly. There has been a little divergence in oil prices falling somewhat and the stocks and derivative markets starting to show some upticks. Some said there was a rumor the oil export ban was going to be lifted, but that seems doubtful. SA is signaling they might agree to cut production( as if it matters with them already ramping it 700K bbls. over the last few months) if others follow along. They would have to really be serious, with a 1.5 MMbbls./d. themselves, to be get any agreement. I think many of the US producers are going to be able to get along on $70/bbl., which the SA and their GCC friends will be annoyed with. That would be too bad as it would have their price war backfire on them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • xdexletx xdexletx Apr 7, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    CLR is going to lose a bundle in the 1st half of the year and the stock jumps 6 pts. in a week. Either the powers that be know they are going to flip the prices with going from short to long on the futures and see a wholesale drop off of a lot of US shale oil going offline or this is the mother of all head fakes and they will take it down again.

  • Reply to

    My 1Q earnings and cash flow estimates

    by jpham2010 Apr 1, 2015 12:19 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 6, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    Should have said the 4th qtr. 2014 cash flow was MINUS $250 million.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    My 1Q earnings and cash flow estimates

    by jpham2010 Apr 1, 2015 12:19 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Apr 6, 2015 5:03 PM Flag

    Didn't you mean negative cash flow of $420 MILLION? If you go back to their 2014 SEC's and break out the gains on derivatives, $560 million, the $617 million on property impairments based on 12/31/14 oil and NG prices and the $585 million in deferred taxes they didn't remit, their cash flow in the 4th qtr, 2014 was $250 million with realized oil prices $30+ per bbl. higher than 1st qtr., 2015. How is the stock going to react when they chew through a $500 million piece of their revolver for 1st qtr. 2015? There won't be any gains on hedges/derivatives because they don't have any. It will interesting to see if they include any impairment charges in the qtr. With oil prices netting $35/bbl. there should be a huge number for that category, like maybe $300 million.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    WILL SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN THE SHARE OFFERING

    by kblab2 Mar 28, 2015 12:35 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Mar 31, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    How long? Long enough to know a big rise in the better run and financed cos. are either going to have a nice run or get bought out. I did a chart on some and it was quite revealing when you stack them up against each other, Tjhe gassers had actually, in several cases done, as well or better than the oils. AR, COG and RRC are in good shape and seem poised to advance as more NG is sold in LNG form. See AR on that COG has better finances, than AR, but both are good LT investments, unless the whole world craters.

    Everyone fawns over EOG, but they have just as many liabilities as shareholders equity.PXD has a 4/3 ratio for that number. XEC and CXO are good financially and are in Texas/Okla.CLR has twice as many liabilities(LT + deferred) as SH equity.I would watch the refiners, as when the crude prices start to rise, their spreads will fall. I still like OAS and am warming up to WLL, especially if they sell more assets and get a handle on their capital-debt area.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Other Asset sales they could make.

    by xdexletx Mar 30, 2015 2:40 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Mar 31, 2015 10:41 AM Flag

    The 4 thumbs down must be from the shorts. The truth hurts when it comes to seeing that these companies are not as bad off, as the oversold conditions seem to indicate. These companies will be investable at oil around $75/bbl., which is where it is headed in the 2nd half of the year or in 3 months, so it's almost time to buy in-right after the small sell-off, if the deal with the Iranians goes through.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • They have a NG plant, pipelines and some oil in Texas, that could produce something in the $ 2 billion range. Citadel just bought more shares to run their holdings to 12 million. What do they know?

    Three of the newly drilled wells WLL received in the KOG buy, had IP's of 3,000bbls.d. of oil. If you look at their increased production of recently drilled wells of their own, they seem to be getting 1,000 bbls./d. and they have 400 bbls./d. at 1 year. The whole shale oil drilling industry has upped the production curves.

    OAS gone in some cases from 80,000 bbls total to 180,000 bbls. at the 120 day point, more than double, by using slickwater and better spacing of wells. CLR has also bumped up their numbers. All of them are getting lower service costs in the last several months.

    EOG says they make as much, now, with $65 oil, than they did previously with $95 oil. The whole shale oil company group is increasing production levels, while having their costs drop. This is why the prod. levels are staying as high as they are, because of increasing production from more recently drilled and completed wells. It is also why they are holding off the completion of wells, as they further refine their drilling methods and wait for lower service costs and a rebound in oil prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WILL SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN THE SHARE OFFERING

    by kblab2 Mar 28, 2015 12:35 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Mar 30, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    JB 939-86% of their leases are held by production-nice try shorty.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WILL SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN THE SHARE OFFERING

    by kblab2 Mar 28, 2015 12:35 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Mar 30, 2015 10:32 AM Flag

    I did a chart on a number of O & G names last week. When you look at market cap, debt, including long term and deferred, where cos. postpone taxes on production, it really stands out who is going to make out alright and who may be facing BK. CLR has about the same liabilities as market cap. They are 5 times their revenue. AR, RRC and COG, a few natural gas plays, are in decent shape. MPC,, the refiner, looks all right. CHK has a market cap of $9 billion, but liabilities of more than double that, which is why I think they have sold off, despite a decent amount of cash.

    WLL is really struggling. OAS has that $2.5 billion in debt but has 500,000 net acres in the Bakken, 90% oil, mostly held by production and they have hedges which average $70.bbl for the 1st 2 qtrs. of 2015. The pipelines in the Bakken are going to be increased in a year or so, to 1.5 million bbls./d., which is over the current production. I could see a company like XOM or HES buying them, speeding up the pipeline off take and lowering the transportation costs by $10/bbl.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WILL SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN THE SHARE OFFERING

    by kblab2 Mar 28, 2015 12:35 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Mar 28, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    The $400 million will be used to retire some of the $2.7 billion in debt. I don't think they have said how much, but I would think they would want to keep much of the proceeds to fund capex. They do have an average price of $70/bbl for the 1st 2 qtrs., which a lot more than most shale oil cos. If all the predictions of the sharp drop in drilling rig numbers are correct and the depletion begins to drop production, prices may firm. The market is weighing the impact of a possible agreement with Iran, vs. all the warring going on in the ME.

    And, there are 3,000 uncompleted wells, some of which will be brought on production. In ND, there is a one year limit as to how long a co. can wait for a drilled well to be completed. Also, the oil prices for Bakken crude, net jumped from around $20.bbl to $35/bbl. from the week before. The producers are still net short on the paper contracts, while the hedges are the opposite. The picture is very opaque, as there are too many moving parts. I still like OAS, with their 500K net acres in the Bakken and the increasing amount of transport from pipelines coming on in the next year or so. WLL is in an uphill struggle. I think the salvation for the ones that survive the crash, will be to sell stock to retire debt and get out from under the interest rates, which is the camel outside the tent. Most of these issues are tied to the libor rate. If that starts going up, it will cost more for the interest.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • SPO has tripled their share count from 12/31-14, from 7.7 million to 20.3 million. They see OAS has oil hedges for 2/3's of est. prod. for the 1st 2 qtrs. of '15, 85-90% oil, not much of the low priced NG, Most of the leases held by production and increasing carry off of volume from pipelines. Yes, they have LT debt of $2.5 billion, but most of it is in the out years, which they and many others will swap for stock when oil prices rise and take earnings with it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Enterprise to get approval for condensate sales or is it someone else? They have been working on this for awhile. With their heavy condensate volumes it would give them a better price. Looks like NG is still down. With storage filling up, oil may be turning. The dollar giving back some would help out WTI.

    Sentiment: Buy

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