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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

xdexletx 48 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 21, 2014 1:10 PM Member since: Nov 9, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Pioneer !!!!

    by whisperingpines1962 Dec 12, 2014 12:01 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Dec 21, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    As least CPE is being realistic in their recent presentation in using $65 for an oil price. With 3,000 out of 7,000 bbls. production, they have hedges at $91. Even if the price is at $50 for a protracted period in 2015, they will have an average price close to $70/bbl. That's a lot more than others are going to get or have forecast. A number of them are still using $80-90/bbl., which is fantasy land.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I'll bet the PNG brass is kicking themselves about holding out for a land based LNG plant vs. a floating one. How much cash did they give away waiting for a bricks and mortar in the jungle type to get built? They could have had a signed deal for a lot more $$$ than they will get now. Or will the parties just walkaway. There's a lot of that happening now all over the world.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Will CLR go bankrupt

    by hufrd Dec 8, 2014 2:40 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Dec 9, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    Good dead cat bounce, but CLR, WLL and others still have to get through the maize of their debt problems with the banks. IfRrockefeller said sell oil in Sept., SA says $60 oil looks good for awhile, Bakken sells for $50 and XOM's Tillerson says "We can make money at $40"-40!, you have to know they are all out to kill off everyone they can. Maybe, EOG will get a bid or PXD and the others above, but the big boys are out to bury the rest of them.

    BO has spent tens of billions in the last decade or so and have little to show for it.They get hammered in the US from the shale pygmies and hosed by gov'ts in most of their other prospect countries. They all have to chomping at the bit to see a REP. in the WH, so they can open up full bore in the GOM and Alaska.They'll likely scoop up the cream of the gassers, as they need volume to fuel the $100 billion in chemical feedstock plants being built in the Gulf Coast area.

    I liked SWN for that, but when they bought that $5 billion in acreage from AEP-Aubrey formerly of CHK- that made me pause. It seemed like a way to make them less attractive for being bought out. Kind of a moot point now.

    The other problem that is coming into the frame for SWN in the Fayetteville and CLR in Oklahoma's SCOOP, is earthquakes. Ohio has also reported them, so you might think the BO buyouts would avoid those companies that could be subject to curtailments, unless they figure out a way to avoid them from injection wells.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Dec 6, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    It is not only the bonds, but the banks will be looking at 1st qtr. ebitda's and if they aren't 4 to 1, they could call the loans. SA said oil should settle at $60. That's the point where all the cash flow negative shale oil guys are in technical default. They can't borrow money from banks, sell debt or stock. They have been borrowing their capex from capital inflows in recent years, but that will now be cut off. Even the CLR's and WLL's of the space are basically unhedged.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Dec 6, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    Isn't CLR's problem as simple as their realized selling price for the 3rd qtr. was $88/bbl. for oil and the recent quoted price for Bakken crude was $50. Add to this the lack of hedges and they are going to have a huge problem keeping the debt to EBITDAX ratio of 4 to 1 the banks want. Throw in the likelihood of interest rates going up and they have a serious problem with enough earnings to avoid going into technical default. It is not a shock to see the problem in oil, as it is not a problem of supply higher than demand, as it is a paper manipulation, where the value of oil futures is 10 times+ the amount of oil produced. It would not be surprising to know the big oil cos. along with SA are up to their eyeballs in this game. BO gets to BK or severely damage even the best shale oil cos. like EOG and PXD, plus sweep up the 2nd tier ones like a CLR, WLL, OAS or CHK for 30c on the dollar.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It wasn't stated in the news announcement. If it is still $14, they paid $2 billion more than for the current KOG market cap. And, this in the current oil price rout. And, the shareholders got to vote on this and they still approved the deal. I am stunned. Are WLL's execs. cousins of Hamm?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Dec 4, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    A lot of conjecture here about CLR. The last crash in 2008-09 had CL bottoming around $35/bbl. The big price jump of 2008 to $147 gave the producers a big pot of cash to squirrel away. A lot of politics were involved with trying to save the world economy after the real estate disaster-crash in 2008.

    I think Hamm just blew it with his ending his hedges. Most hedges are for only a portion of production, likely around 50%. If you are CLR, you can probably tell your revolver bank buddies over lunch what you are doing. He will probably raise an eyebrow, clear his throat and finish his lunch, thinking he's HH, he must know what he's doing. I can't see OPEC or SA, reversing themselves for a couple of months, at least. These events don't happen quickly. HH has a cash flow problem and it's going to get worse and so is the stock price.

    And, just today CVX announced they had confirmed that they and their partners will have an additional 94,000 bbls./d. of production from the GOM. How many more of those are out there?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • What I can't understand is how HAL can put themselves in this position of buying a company only to see it's own stock crumble and have a $3.5 billion fee due if the merger is called off. You would think they would have the best connections of nearly anyone about what was just around the corner and then they seemingly got blown out of the water anyway. They are going to have to either drastically lower their offering price, if possible or get Baker to allow for a much lower termination fee. Or do they have a 'force majeure' clause in their agreement-hope so.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • He was on target to be the king of fracking in the Bakken. With the dropping of the hedges, he gave away something around $20/bbl of revenue. His 3rd qtr. oil price was $85/bbl on 185K/d. If he produces 200K in the 1st qtr. he will lose $4 million/d or $360 million per qtr., which is around 2/3's of his 3rd qtr income of $566 million. His problem is also magnified by over $5 billion in debt and nearly another $3 billion in payables. One has to believe selling stock and debt is also off the table. And, banks will be slow to lend, even for CLR, with the lack of hedges. This stock is going lower. Tthey have to cut capex, because they don't have the money to pay for the drilling. I can see them nearly stopping the SCOOP and cutting the Bakken by 1/3 at least. Hamm better find some hedges to buy soon, or this will rival the mess Aubrey had at CHK or worse, because at least he could sell acreage for some cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • That's going to be an interesting day, considering KOG is down almost 50% from the bid price. Get your cards and letters in early boys and girls.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Humpty Dumpty fell off his wall over the last couple of months, as the oil price swooned. With OPEC holding steady theirprice announcement, a tank just rolled over the oil sector, particularly the shale oil ones for the non-big oil types. This sector is totally broken and will be awhile until you can invest in it again. The only hope is for one of them to get picked off in a fire sale, but which one is the question???

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Nice work if you can get it. Sell a couple of million shares at $5.70/ea. and collect 40C/share on 20 million shares. $20 million to run a soon to be bankrupt company. Only in America.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    string of pearls continues to grow

    by edsilverstreak Nov 15, 2014 11:22 AM
    xdexletx xdexletx Nov 17, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    They really don't know if the 10TCF. number is correct unless they do more testing. The curious thing about that is Hession isn't going to do that until 2015, so it may be Spring until the resource is verified. They only drilled one well and you really can't tell the amount until more wells are drilled. As someone speculated, it appear MH is holding off on good news so they can get more well numbers confirmed before they let the cat out of the bag.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Pump and dump!

    by zoeofsparta Nov 14, 2014 4:16 PM
    xdexletx xdexletx Nov 14, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    Absolutely. Where is HAL going to get $35 billion for the buyout. If they had a theme song, it would be "Beautiful Dreamer". Get real.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • the yahoo's on this board talking politics, when HAL is considering buying Baker for $35+ billion.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • xdexletx xdexletx Nov 8, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    The big holders are waiting to get out. they know TSLA is going nowhere fast. The losses are going to get bigger and the cash is draining away. Musk has to build a dealer network, but who would put out any money for a store if the big auto makers come out with their own models. Stick a fork in Tesla-it's done.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Nov 7, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Speaking of levers he hasn't pulled, try to get the story on Solar City that is scheduled to build a huge solar panel plant in Buffalo-See the Buffalo News, today Friday, 11/7, front page. It talks about how they "might build it 5 times bigger than originally planned, but the usual cavaets of 'if demand is there' are offered. NY state is going to dump hundreds of millions into this project. A lot of it sounds like the same Blue Sky of Tesla. Speaking of other Musk adventures, wasn't Spacex saved when he was paid $1.5 billion for PayPal.

    There seems to be a common theme for all of his exploits- none of them make any money, but get floated along on the hopes and dreams of a lot of investors who were probably the types that threw money at the dot coms of the late 90's and got burned. I think Tesla and Solar City are looking like bubble stocks that are going to have to do some skillful avoidance of pitfalls. I hope they make it, but an awful lot of things have to break just right .

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Nov 6, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    Losses increase as sales increase. sounds like Workday. They sell their products at a loss because they are competing against behemoths like SAP, Oracle and CRM.

    Maybe, Tesla thinks they can't raise prices because of competition from ICE vehicles. There are a lot balls in the air that Musk has to catch in the next couple of years and the only reason he is still around is that he had some angels that dumped several billion in his pocket, because they thought it was going to work. this stock is going to crash. The bag holders are trying to figure out how to exit without getting hammered. Maybe, the Friday after Thanksgiving, when a lot of the players are away. The cash flow problems have to be driving the big longs nuts.

    They know the money's not there and it's not going to arrive any time soon, if ever. The other problem lurking out over the horizon, is that they are going to have to develop a dealer network, but who is going to drop millions to put up a building, hire a staff and float money for an inventory when the company who's product you are suppose to sell is losing money and the competition is just waiting for them to make something so they can start a price war. Or will their current affiliations even let them invest in a Tesla dealership?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Kind of remains one of the, "you didn't build that business or recently, "corporations don't create jobs".

    Deposits down. Back-end risk on leases. Quote from CC-" On leasing, with our banking partners we are taking(or was it talking) lease accounting because our customers do have the option to return the car and we have the option to buy back those cars". So, my take is that someone will take a haircut and Tesla, gets to chose who gets scalped.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • xdexletx xdexletx Nov 6, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    If it is so simple to make them, why does Musk complain about how difficult it is to make his cars? Maybe, because he doesn't have enough qualified people to make them-you think?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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