Revenues continue to grow year after year and quarter after quarter. Should continue to. And long term, profit margins will be comparable. On the conference call, they said the timing of expenses and revenue from quarter to quarter is hard to predict. So I would go by yearly numbers and yearly projections into the future.
The shorts are very good of scaring the longs out. I owned a company called QCOR which the shorts loved. Management finally got sick of it and took a good offer and the shares more than doubled on me. I'm guessing we could see these share rise dramatically more once the bearish oil sentiment is over.
I don't see 25 cents. Where do you see this?
I would like to see them spin off Prospector to shareholders along with $400 million of debt and $500 million of assets. It will make it or fail on its own and Paragon won't bring down Prospector and Prospector won't bring down Paragon.
Then, I'd like to see a Dutch tender offer for their future debt. This could take Paragon's debt down to $1 billion. $1 billion of debt is manageable. It also cuts their interest payments in half which will pay for itself over time.
"SLB is making a strategic bet on a recovery in deepwater drilling, even if not in 2016, Tudor Pickering says; with 7M-plus bbl/day of global oil production coming from deepwater reservoirs, it makes sense that offshore activity eventually will rebound."
There isn't an obvious time to pull the trigger, but SLB decided to. Almost impossible to have perfect timing, but the timing isn't bad right now.
Class action is no big deal. D&O insurance will cover it and it doesn't affect the books. Company is taking a stance that the accounting was done correctly by law and a few years from now when this is settled, it will be long forgotten.
I have bought in heavy at about $15 on the low price to cash flow ratio. A weak Charlie Brown premier is priced in, so anything above expectation there can be exciting. Additionally, I wouldn't be surprised if they go for a strawberry shortcake movie and try to buy some other characters to develop as well. When they have a critical mass, there will be some efficiency of scale.
Unlikely. Bookings are still good so future profitability is predicable. Likely way stay around $10 and dividends around 4%.
It was a small position as of June 30th. I'm sure he has accumulated more than that or it wouldn't be worth the trouble to research the position. He knew he had 45 days to accumulate under 5% of the stock with no reporting requirements, and with the daily volume as high as it is, I'm guessing he had no problem picking up four million shares.
There's probably news that we don't know about yet. Are there any current tenders going on?
Depends how good the beat is. In 2010 it made about 35 cents and traded at $8.00 most of the year. If earnings can look on track for double that (70 cents), then $16 would be a possibility.
Don't get emotional. Rule #1 in investing. But if this does go bankrupt, I will sue Noble in a class action. And I believe the odds of a settlement with them are high.
Actually, that's not right. When demand starts to increase, it is shown historically that it increases across all generation of rigs.
Alan, I think you're talking about a Dutch tender offer for the bonds? I like that idea.
Buying back stock makes no sense. 3 years from now this will either be out of business or worth $10+. Buying stock in the meantime doesn't decrease risk of bankruptcy in any way. It might make the stock worth more if it survives, but if it survives, Im sure I will be very happy with the share price. As far as I am concerned, all money should be used to ensure survival.
I think PGN survives. My breakeven is around $800 million revenue, and I think it will stay above that level in a worst case scenario. The excessive sell off is because of what happened in Mexico and investors extrapolating that to the rest of their business, but I think the rest of their business is healthier than most investors realize.
The market is also pricing NADL and VTG for bankruptcy. But I don't think everybody will go out of business. And those that survive will be worth a lot more.
I will buy more. I don't really care what others think. I have a financial model through the next 24 months and I think it will do just fine. Once offshore drillers return to a normal valuation, this thing will certainly skyrocket. Willing to wait up to 5 years for it to hit $10.
That's a good question. The company hasn't disclosed that yet and I doubt anybody here will be able to answer that question as sale leasebacks of capital assets are complicated. It probably has different implications for UK taxes, GAAP and non-GAAP. It would be nice if there was a favorable tax benefit in the UK if the expense is a lease rather than interest expense but wouldn't hold my breath. We'll find out a lot more Thursday morning. My guess is that it will be accounted for similar to debt and there will be no change to earnings as the amount will be amortized over time.
The shorts know exactly where earnings will be. They aren't dummies. It will take some truly surprising news to get them off their short position. Either substantial contract extensions or substantial share / debt repurchase is probably what it would take.