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Nintendo Co. Ltd. Message Board

xgrk88a 80 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Jul 15, 2004
  • Reply to

    1.84 and on the way to 80 cents

    by goskiing99 Mar 3, 2015 9:38 AM

    What is the most annoying is that typically in situations like this the company gets bought out. I owned Teavana, MetroPCS, Bally Technologies, and Questcor which all tanked and were then bought out. It is common in short attacks because at some point the price is so low that it becomes a desirable buyout candidate. I owned EBIX that announced a buyout, then it didn't go through, and today the stock is much higher than the buyout price. I am hoping this doesn't get bought out at $5. That would really #$%$ me off.

  • Reply to

    1.84 and on the way to 80 cents

    by goskiing99 Mar 3, 2015 9:38 AM

    I think he mentioned the enterprise value of $2.2 billion because companies in the offshore drilling industry typically sell at 7-8x EV to EBITDA which means the street sees EBITDA of $300 million. Seems unlikely to me but the Pemex could potentially help clear this up.

  • Reply to

    this company will go zero?

    by jonpogi10 Mar 2, 2015 5:16 PM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Mar 2, 2015 10:15 PM Flag

    Depends on your horizon. If you are long term and can hold through volatility, then buy more. If you can't take volatility then sell it when you have a price you are comfortable with. It looks like it could bounce around in the 2's for a while.

  • Reply to

    PGN now nose diving on HERO news

    by goskiing99 Feb 27, 2015 1:05 PM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 27, 2015 4:01 PM Flag

    Let's see. The stock is irrationally low now. Who's to say it can't fall more to an even more irrational price.

  • xgrk88a by xgrk88a Feb 26, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    MNK one of my best stocks today. Anybody know what the news is? I might take some profits here.

  • Reply to

    Whopping 10% tank

    by goskiing99 Feb 24, 2015 2:15 PM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 24, 2015 8:41 PM Flag

    Will be a volatile stock. If you're fine with the crazy ups and downs you'll be fine hanging on. Should be higher in a year or two. But if oil stays down in the $40's for a couple years, this may not be a fun ride.

  • Reply to

    downgrades coming

    by catjomy31 Feb 24, 2015 11:24 AM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 24, 2015 8:29 PM Flag

    So I'm guessing you've shorted this stock? What's your target price?

  • xgrk88a by xgrk88a Feb 24, 2015 8:26 PM Flag

    Earnings come and go with no comments? Everything seems okay and on track. I guess nothing terrifically good or bad. Should grow 15% a year.

  • Reply to

    downgrades coming

    by catjomy31 Feb 24, 2015 11:24 AM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 24, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    Oh. One more positive: insiders own about 12% of company.

  • Reply to

    downgrades coming

    by catjomy31 Feb 24, 2015 11:24 AM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 24, 2015 5:23 PM Flag

    Outlook is fine. YoY revenue growth this quarter. Will be YoY quarterly growth next quarter. Bookings numbers look weak, but that's because of timing issues. Revenue will be up next year. So growth will continue.

    As for earnings, if you look over the last decade, net income has been around 5%. It does fluctuate year to year but tends to revert to that average.

    So a growing company, solid balance sheet supporting a good dividend. Investing in future with acquisitions and capex. I'm comfortable holding here.

  • Reply to

    downgrades coming

    by catjomy31 Feb 24, 2015 11:24 AM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 24, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    It is my motto for most of the stocks I own and has seemed to work for the last few decades. I started with a lot less bags than I own now.

    Anyway, regardless, I look for good balance sheets, dividends, and long term growth. If you call that bag holding, then let's say I've got a lot of bags

  • Reply to

    downgrades coming

    by catjomy31 Feb 24, 2015 11:24 AM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 24, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    Will be hanging on to it long term. Happy with dividend and substantial cash balance. Dividend should be safe.

  • Reply to

    what? ..no div?

    by yesitsascam Feb 22, 2015 12:57 PM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 23, 2015 8:19 AM Flag

    Name a company with a similar heavy debt ratio like PGN that hasn't cut or drop their dividend.

  • Reply to

    what? ..no div?

    by yesitsascam Feb 22, 2015 12:57 PM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 23, 2015 1:19 AM Flag

    Every company is dropping their dividend. It isn't Stilley. It is the entire industry. Sorry if you don't like it, but hang in there and you will be rewarded when oil finally rises.

  • Reply to

    Worst case situation

    by xgrk88a Feb 20, 2015 11:51 PM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 21, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    first of all, I love debt. It juices returns (as long as the debt load is manageable). So if PGN just borrows $300 million more and buys back everybody's shares but mine, I would make $100 million a year on my handful of shares.

    So as for whether the debt is manageable, that is a hard question. Where does it need to be to make people comfortable if Brent hovers around $60? There is some amount of debt that is manageable, leads to better return on equity and long term growth rates, but doesn't scare the markets.

  • Based on their guidance, a worst case situation would be:

    1500 revenue
    850 drilling costs
    60 SG&A
    135 interest
    350 depreciation
    105 pretax profit
    75 after tax profit (about 85-90 cents per share for the full year)

    250 of actual capex means 100 of cash not used for capex (based on depreciation expense of 350).

    So let's call it 50 cents a quarter of cash coming in, or $2 per year. If it can keep that up, we'd be looking at the industry average of 5-7 times the after tax income plus depreciation or about $25-35 stock. Obviously things can get worse but I think more likely to get better than this next year.

    Shorts aren't dummies. When there is a signal that this can happen (or that it is done going down, shorts will start covering. Right now they are shorting a highly leveraged company in a very difficult industry, but it won't be that way forever.

    Overall, I have been happy with the results and efforts of management we've seen so far.

  • Reply to

    Dividend Maintained

    by rdravin Feb 20, 2015 11:42 AM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 20, 2015 12:56 PM Flag

    Estimates will likely rise for the quarter and year as they are too low right now, and along with estimates rising, the stock price should rise, too.

  • Reply to

    Anyone catch the conference call?

    by goskiing99 Feb 20, 2015 12:33 PM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 20, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    Banks are still considering loan to Prospector.

    Each of the 3 rig options are a separate contract. Not taking one doesn't mean they can't take another.

    Banks financing rig building in China could finance the prospector rigs if PGN takes them.

    Goal is to cut revolver to 0 by the end of the year to keep liquidity options open.

    Lower day rates and lower utilization is expected this year but not sure how it wil break down.

    Dividend cut to maintain liquidity and maybe buy debt in the future.

    Even if oil prices pick up, rig demand won't materially rise until capex budgets rise next year.

    Pemex contracts will probably be signed in coming weeks (if they take any of PGN's available rigs).

    Ranked best foreign offshore contractor for PetroBrazil but not a lot of options there since not much shallow water.

    Q4 only included one month of prospector, and not full revenue (but full cost) on one rig for the month

    Listen to the call. some stuff for Bulls and some stuff for bears. Overall I am happy staying long.

    From the foul creature.

  • Reply to

    Dividend Maintained

    by rdravin Feb 20, 2015 11:42 AM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 20, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Listen to the conference call.

    They are guiding to:
    Revenue down 20-25% full year 2015 vs 2014

    $840-870 million drilling expenses full year
    $220-230 q1

    Depreciation
    355-375 fy
    85-90 q1

    Sga
    55-60 fy
    14-16 q1

    Interest
    125-135 fy
    30-35 q1

    Effective tax rate (ETR) 30% depending on Pemex renewals

    Capex
    230-250 fy
    60-65 q1

  • Reply to

    Dividend Maintained

    by rdravin Feb 20, 2015 11:42 AM
    xgrk88a xgrk88a Feb 20, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    Dividend was dropped as I suspected would happen. Not bad news. Actually a positive if they use that money intelligently.

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