Interesting that when you type #$%$ together it turns into $@#$.
One more interesting point investors need to keep in mind. The difference between a high spec and standard spec isn't THAT substantial. And #$%$'s can be good for 40+ year if cared for. Nothing goes bad on it and everything is upgradable. Think of a computer from the 80's, but you updated the drives and CPU and monitor card and ram and hard drive. It is almost the same thing but can't drill as deep. And high spec can be built for harsh weather, but that doesn't mean there won't be demand for standard spec #$%$'s.
Just simple manipulation. Short it down. Buy it up.
If you have thoughts, share with investor relations. They will collect and relay messages to management.
I think #1 concern is to make sure the company is viable and successful 10 years out. As long as they put themselves on the right path, everything will work itself out. Perhaps they need to invest in harsh weather rigs? Or perhaps they should get into high spec rigs? Or perhaps they should consolidate the #$%$ market. It would be very beneficial if the industry consolidated.
That may be the case, but only an idiotic CEO would put money into more stock if he didn't think he could meet expectations and issue good guidance?
PGN is falling through the floor. How low can it go? Is a 5 handle possible? Anybody seen anything so cheap before? I have a long term view, but am shocked how low this is going.
I think everybody including management is surprised how much it has fallen. How low can it go? Is a 5 handle possible? I would be shocked if it happens, but it is possible? 4 handle? I have never seen anything go below a forward PE of 5, so this is already lower than anything I've seen. Eventually, this thing will rise. But in the meantime it looks like it will continue to fall for reasons I can't understand. Perhaps management needs better advisors. It could be their advisors manipulating this because of what they know?
Anyway, I fully expect this to see $20 within a year or two. But in the meantime, who knows how low it can go.
Stockmarketadvantage - I think that is a big part of it. But there's more. Since the hedge funds knew that PGN had to be sold by sp500 etf's as well as small holders that don't care, they rushed in and shorted the stock before everybody else sold. Then, as they shorted, they basically created shares. So now there are over 100 million shares floating around. The increased supply drops the price more. At some point (probably about now) they will accumulate at the low prices. Then they'll close out their shorts for a gain and let the share price rise. Great way to make money on the way down and the way up.
I don't think it would have fallen on weak earnings. The market is forward looking, and if forward revenue and earnings guidance looks good, that's all the market cares about. I think there is just a lot of uncertainty right now from the lack of dividend, the high tax situation, and the overall rig market. But I think those issues will be fixed over time. After they are fixed, I am hoping we find a PE of 10 or more. Easy double. Not sure why the market doesn't see this. Probably manipulation, but if so it should be about done?
I know it doesn't seem like GNC needs to buy VSI, but they do. It started with a research report from Credit Swiss. Then Cramer jumped on the idea. VSI doesn't need GNC, but GNC needs VSI. GNC is losing the battle with VSI. Whenever both stores are side by side, VSI wins. VSI doesn't have to deal with franchisees. VSI has bigger footprints. VSI has a better loyalty program. VSI now has margin as they bought a manufacturer. VSI is set to win. And GNC knows this. GNC has hired VSI's COO. Now the CEO is leaving.
Every CEO that has sold a business denies it until the day it happens. It is typically part of an NDA or CA.
One more point... Buybacks don't weed out shorts and that's who is killing the stock. It takes a combo of buybacks and dividends to be most effective. Right now there are probably more than 15 million shares short. When the dividend kicks in, most of those will cover.
Hwan, you are preaching to the choir. Email to investor relations.
No reason to buy in debt. Use the debt to buy back stock. Best thing would be to take out $700 million credit line and use it to buy back shares. Then I'll be the only shareholder left and I'll make a few hundred million a year!
Your numbers are close but not exactly right. The high tax rate also has to do with a retroactive tax in England that is a one time thing. Looking ino next year, the tax rate will be in the 30's, and with a better tax structure, they should be able to get back into the 20's by the following year (or earlier).
Also, there are 85 million outstanding shares. If they can keep their rigs at the current utilization rate (and with Mexico picking up their offshore drilling, they likely can), if they can fix their tax structure (and they have said they intend to), and if they do some share repurchase (and I think they likely will), and if new rigs on the market come on slower than expected (and I think they very well could in this market where oil is falling and everybody is afraid of oversupply), then you're looking at $4+ per share of earnings in a couple years if not more. The share price is saying that is not likely, but I think there is a good shot, which is why I am willing to take this risk and went long in a big way at $9. I believe this can be a $30+ stock in 2 years and I have placed my bet.
I think of ACThar as a natural steroid for people that can't take steroids. Far more expensive, but in some cases necessary.
Base on latest short numbers, I would guess there are about 100 million shares purchased (85 million plus another 15 million short). Anybody heard anything about who has bought these shares? There must be some big owners?
I think his point is that before it was PGN, it was PGN-WI (or PGN.WI or PGN/WI) and the data is readily available on line. The price opened on July 21st at $17.50 and fell that day to $12.50. From that day until PGN started on 8/4, the stock traded as low as $11.18. Hope this helps.
I don't think they're losing money. If they were losing money, the tax rate would be irrelevant.
The other reason the stock is falling is because investors were in the dark on the tax rate, so it raises the question re what else investors might be in the dark about.