I'm not pumping a buyout. I'm just saying this would likely come up through the natural course of debt refinancing discussions. Especially because the debt is distressingly cheap and the equity is an unmeaningful amount relative to the entire purchase. Actually, I typically hold 10 stocks at a time and one per year gets bought out on average (which isn't something I like because it is usually at a lower price than I believe the stock is worth). My last 3 were QCOR (which turned out well because I got MNK stock), BYI and LSI. Others I've had bought out from under me include RUE, PCS and TEA. Longer ago, I owned Applebee's, BUD, and some insurance company (I think Safeco). I also owned EBIX which eventually fell through and became worth more than the buyout price.
Anyway, I'm just saying it is a certain possibility. If it happens it would likely be a leveraged management buyout.
Not saying this to pump, but I really believe a management buyout is coming. As the management discusses floating some debt for Prospector, the idea of also raising enough money to buy the whole company would likely come up. With some haircut on debt and premium on equity, they could buy this for $2 billion. Buy 3 more prospector rigs for $600 million and sell / scrap some rigs and they could easily make at least five hundred million of EBITDA on $2.5 billion of total EV. Based on the current cost of money that would be a profitable transaction, and really a no brainier.
He talks about the dividend over and over because as a short seller, the high dividend increases the holding cost. PGN dropped their dividend and the stock fell through the floor (because the shorts could push hard)
Shares price falling isn't a reason to sell much like share price rising isn't a reason to buy. Each person needs to do their own analysis of where the company is going. It is pricing to revenue down 70-80%. If you think it will be worse than that, then short. If you think it will be better then go long. Pretty much that simple.
So my theory is the falling share price is because of falling analyst earnings estimates for 2015. They all seem to be way off and fall week after week which doesn't make a lot of sense since there is no new news. I still fear that management is guiding earnings down to analysts so the stock will be cheaper and they can do a leveraged buyout. Hope I'm crazy. Regardless the forward estimates are way too low and this will pop on earnings.
The market is never right, Kwan. There is a concensus which leads to a price. I believe we will eventually be much higher and you believe eventually we will be much lower. Unless you think this is going out of business within the next two years (which no analyst is predicting), we can both be right as this could dip lower in the short term and yet be much higher in the longer term.
Good luck to all.
Great question. I don't see many 10 baggers outside of foreign leveraged asset plays (like oil). Basically, most big potential gains right now are in buying foreign assets. Other things include borrowing in US dollars to buy property in Europe. I have seen some billionaires are doing this. It can have a substantial 5-7 year return.
Right now, the U.S. Dollar is extremely strong. So rather than buying one widget in Europe, you can get almost two. Over time, this will revert to mean and you can sell for a substantial profit. Warren Buffet has said publicly he wants to buy in Germany. It will make sense long term.
I don't think it's a question of whether they can get a loan on prospector rigs. The question is what the rate will be. They may opt to use the revolver or some combination of loans. We'll see. I'm sure the management is considering all long term options to see what would be the best option.
So you are saying NE won't go under but on NE's board I saw where you wrote that if the company doesn't cut dividends today it won't survive. So which is it? Obviously you are a trader that flips based on which way the wind is blowing. Things are down for PGN, but that doesn't mean they will be forever.
Pismire's numbers have been pretty much spot on for earnings. But he takes them from the fleet status reports. I don't think anybody saw this downturn in oil, and at some point it will go back up but nobody will be able to accurately predict when. So I'm waiting. None-the-less, I will be mad if the company sells here. It has happened to me many times and I feel like I usually don't get a true value for the shares.
hwan - I heard you beating the drum on NE, too, but all the oil drillers won't go under. They make about 1/3 of the world's oil and Goldman Sachs came out this morning and said global supply and demand seem to be close to balance.
Anyway, you can continue to short and I will continue to go long and we'll see how it plays out over the next 12 months.
It is either worth $0 or worth $20. If it doesn't go out of business (and based on the expected cash flow over the next couple years I don't see that happening), then the fair price for this stock is much higher than where it is now.
I have owned many companies that have sold out at what I consider a below market price. Those include PCS, TEA, BYI, EBIX, RUE.
I hope they are not negotiating the sale of the company. That would seriously #$%$ me off if I walk away with less than the $20 per share that I know it's worth.
If you want to calculate a liquidation value, you need to include the cash that the rigs will generate before they are liquidated. You need to make assumptions on what costs can and can't be cut, and how the cash flow would be affected. I believe the market has completely disassociated share price with the true value. And that is done by fear and a melt down in the stock price. Seems like we are close to capitulation. I will be buying more here.
Most of the offshore drillers are getting clobbered. Who knows where the bottom is. But I do know they all can't go out of business. I think offshore is responsible for something like a third of our oil supply?
I don't think it is simply the debt that scares everybody. Debt can always be restructured. If the company can just break even for the next decade (which can generate positive cash flow of $100 million per year), it wouldn't quite be enough to service the debt as it is structured today, but it would be enough for them to roll some of the debt forward. The market doesn't think this company can cash flow over $100 million a year (which is all it needs). I think the market is wrong on this. I predict this company will slowly pay off debt each year and suddenly the market will realize that this company isn't going out of business. Who knows when this will happen, but I am sure it will. And at that point it would be worth at least $20 per share, maybe more.
Stilley has said that PGN will likely never lose money. The company can shed costs and sell rigs as it shrinks, and stay profitable. So in a worst case scenario, the company should continue to have some value.