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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

xquestor 517 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Feb 19, 2008
  • xquestor by xquestor Apr 9, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    ACAS message board still under attack by automated web-bot auto-taggin "abuse" so that Yahoo removes

    Since Yahoo has enacted a threshold for automatic removal of messages when they get a certain number of thumbs-down or abuse reports, the previous annoying web-bot attacking the ACAS message board has been promoted to a message-board killer.

    This web-bot is capable of tagging every message up to 1,000 times, with either abuse or thumbs-down (using unique IDs). Since Yahoo put the auto-remove thresholds in, Yahoo has removed all new messages since the new year AND the web-bot has continued back in history.

    At this time, Yahoo has removed all messages back to Oct-2012.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    OP for 4-11-14 has dropped to $21.50

    by xquestor Apr 9, 2014 11:19 AM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 9, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    The MM"s play a zero sum game. They only will pay out the smallest amount possible. They do not lose money because they make so much more on the options that expire worthless. Everyone else on that plays; usually only play one option strike at a time. It is really nuts because when you play in so close the premiums are degraded and the risk is so high. That is why I sell put options so far out. I can define the risk so much better. I know that the options that I play will degrade in value by about 70% by the time they approach expiration. I do not have to try and play short term and hope that I am on the right side of the trade. In effect; If I have multiple option trades outstanding on different stocks, my chances of being right is almost 100%. Remember that put and call option buyers lose money 90% of the time. So I have the odds that I will win 90% of the time, plus I have the ability to adjust positions so that I can pick up the other 10%. I have never been caught on the wrong side of a put option trade.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    OP for 4-11-14 has dropped to $21.50

    by xquestor Apr 9, 2014 11:19 AM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 9, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Today's stock price rise has more to do with making the 4-11-14, 4-19 and 4-25 put options worth less. So after this little run up the stock price should be brought back down by Friday.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Looks like they are shooting for that $21 number on 4-25.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    April 8, 2014 2:47pm

    by xquestor Apr 8, 2014 2:53 PM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 9, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    The ultimate goal is to make options worthless! That is why it is called option pain (r). The price of the stock is worked up and down creating confusion; but ultimately put and call buyers lose.
    Have you noticed that there are a new slew of ID's on the MU board pumping the stock ? There also has been a shift on the news stories posted.

    XQ.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • xquestor xquestor Apr 9, 2014 1:00 AM Flag

    cautious;
    See my other post to you.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    April 8, 2014 2:47pm

    by xquestor Apr 8, 2014 2:53 PM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 9, 2014 12:57 AM Flag

    cautious & info;

    OP for the next two weeks is 22; so we can expect a drop below that level.
    OP for the 25th is 21 and we can expect to see a drop below that to the $20.65 area.
    The bad news is that the chart pattern is open between to-days close and $20.63.
    The MM's could get greedy and decide to drop it to that level at any time. Even
    tomorrow; so that they could make even more options worthless all at once. I suspect that this is what will happen as the current weeks option tree is lopsided, having more call options outstanding then put options. JMHO

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    April 8, 2014 2:47pm

    by xquestor Apr 8, 2014 2:53 PM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 8, 2014 11:14 PM Flag

    sagit1;
    You never said how you did on that other put option?
    What stock? MU?

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Jan '15 max pain--Question XQ

    by tahloolaa Apr 8, 2014 7:20 PM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 8, 2014 11:10 PM Flag

    b4;
    One thing most investors must learn is this. Spread your money over a number of opportunities. Rationalize each trade so that you have an escape route or a method to make it profitable. I believe that your position will do fine over a longer term of 6 to 12 months. Just do not let yourself get spooked.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Forward OP

    by xquestor Apr 7, 2014 1:09 PM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 8, 2014 8:38 PM Flag

    steak;
    A forward put or call is an option that will expire after the current option expiration date. Current options expire this Friday and Forward options expire in the future. MM's play over the vast spectrum of options; whereas most other options traders play one month or week at a time.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Jan '15 max pain--Question XQ

    by tahloolaa Apr 8, 2014 7:20 PM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 8, 2014 8:31 PM Flag

    b4; How? XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Jan '15 max pain--Question XQ

    by tahloolaa Apr 8, 2014 7:20 PM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 8, 2014 8:30 PM Flag

    The MM's and Big Money start by selling or buying puts and calls. As time goes by more option trades are traded and that $15 price should move higher. A lot of times I will sell put options around that strike and will sell more when MU has pullbacks in price. I have already sold the Jan 2016 $13 and the $17. 55% profit on the $13 and even on the $17. Once the stock price drops more I will do some more. MU is just one of many companies that I sell put options on.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    April 8, 2014 2:47pm

    by xquestor Apr 8, 2014 2:53 PM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 8, 2014 8:21 PM Flag

    cautious;
    1. $22.50
    2. $22.50
    3. If the OP stays at $21 that week will close below $21 at around $20.67. JMHO

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    April 8, 2014 2:47pm

    by xquestor Apr 8, 2014 2:53 PM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 8, 2014 8:16 PM Flag

    sagit1;

    High today was $22.4256. I would look at $22.50 for 4-11 or $23 for 4-19. JMO As you know I am much better at long term puts.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    XQ have a nice trip i missed you

    by sagit1usa Apr 8, 2014 5:45 PM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 8, 2014 8:03 PM Flag

    Hi Dov;

    Fri should close below $22

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Looking on a 10 min. chart, MU has put a nice 5 wave uptrend chart and appears to now be pulling back. Looks like it is teasing buyers to buy. With an OP price of $21 still out there for the 25th, be careful with what options you are trading.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    XQ - MMs "FOOTPRINTS" - question(s)

    by daejna Apr 8, 2014 3:15 AM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 8, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    You appear to be correct! and I always have cash to cover my put option sales. When I have captured 70% of the premium paid to me, I start looking at
    1. do I continue to hold
    2. do I buy them back
    This all depends how the future OP numbers look and if the stock chart is showing signs of a pullback or is over sold. You have to understand that the stock price and option prices are a summation of investors sentiment. Watch and the truth is always before you. On the MU board i posted before the drop that there would be a 3% to 5% pullback. In my opinion we still have a little more to drop before we have a rebound.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Forward OP

    by xquestor Apr 7, 2014 1:09 PM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 8, 2014 2:08 AM Flag

    info:

    1. It updates after the market closes and before the opens the next day. I am sure it takes a while to do all the stocks.
    2..I do not think that the convertibles had anything to do with the sell-off. MU was oversold.
    3. Unless the OP price changes for the 25th, I believe that MU will drop down to the $20.70 area. You have to realize that the MM's are playing over more expiration dates then the little guy just playing one expiration date. They have (MM's) already started selling forward put options contracts. The large numbers of forward put is a sign that MU is close to a bottom. Another drop in the stock price will create more fear and a lot more put buying. I love to see these drops as I can sell longer term puts at high prices and as the MM's start to run the stock price back up; the put options become worth less. I call it the teeter toter effect.
    4..If you go to max pain and look at the visual of the option tree for this week; you will see that the
    dollar value of the call contracts is much greater then the puts. That is a big sign as to the direction of the stock. Some posters on the MU board will lead you to believe that one needs to watch individual strike prices. OP is much more refined in that it takes into consideration the dollar value of all the option contracts and mathematically calculates the price at which call and put option buyers will lose the most amount of money.
    5..MU is very close to being oversold. It will work its way around this lower level for a couple of weeks and then will start to ascend again. The OP price for the first week of May is at $23. That tells me that is where the shift back up will begin. If you want to sell some puts keep your eye on the Jan 2016 $15 and $17 strike. Let me know if you want info on other stocks.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • If you look on a 15 min. chart, you will see that MU tested an area of upside resistance that had been support. This is not good for this week. I believe that more downside to $21.70 will happen.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Forward OP

    by xquestor Apr 7, 2014 1:09 PM
    xquestor xquestor Apr 7, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    I put no faith in a 4DMA. I use a 10 and 50. I did a lot of research and found that this combination worked the best.

    XQ

    Sentiment: Hold

PFE
30.92-0.08(-0.26%)Apr 23 4:00 PMEDT

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