I was short TF futures and covered Friday 4/19. I actually went long then and if I had kept my position (898.4), I would be up $7K/contract. I was looking for a H&S and we obviously didn't get it. I covered at the end of May 1 again (I did short the H&S) but shorted from a slightly higher level the next day.
I still say, any you will probably say the same thing, that once 895 breaks on the RUT and ~1535 on the SPX, then this market is in deep trouble. Fundamentals will matter again believe it or not.
Maybe you're right. Thursday's tweet was a rumor of a rumored article though. My biggest point is that this parabolic trend we've been in is now most definitely over and that the things that defined this trend (dip buying, no fear) are not going to be here anymore.
I think you will see a major structural change in the market now. You are right that it will not fall off a cliff in one week though. I would be very surprised if it did.
FInally, September is a traditionally down month but it has extra meaning this year.
1. End of QE
2. Debt ceiling
3. German elections
Could be a very volatile month folks.
Here's how it works folks. The stock market has been a massive game of musical chairs for 6+ months now. The music has stopped and everyone will try to rush out to front-run the Fed ending QE. A lot of underperforming hedge funds that were buying dips to put cash to use will no longer support the market.
Fact is, you have an extremely crowded long trade judging from COT reports, put/call ratios, short interest, margin debt and sentiment. In the past, Wall Street has front-run QE by 2-3 months and that's where we are now (assuming it ends in September and not August or June). The amount of QE is on a different scale entirely as are the level of gains. By the time the end does come, the only ones holding stocks will be bagholding muppets. Wall Street will be in cash or short stocks.
THAT'S why it matters. This could fall 10% in the next month.
You're an idiot. Do you really think big money was sitting around their computers at 7:14 PM on a Friday? The futures market was closed as well. News like this is released this late as damage control. It dropped 10 points on Thursday on a tweet of a rumor of an article. It will get priced in over time and no it probably won't be Monday. The top is near now though.
Unlike 2013, 2000 had a fast growing economy and a tech revolution. Profit margins were not at record highs either. The Shiller P/E is not that much lower than it was in 2000. Sorry, this is a major bubble.
In the past, they have front-run the end of QE by two months but this amount of QE is unprecedented and our gains are now way higher than in the past. Plus, Ben and friends could taper QE even earlier. The top is essentially in now as further gains are limited. There will be no more QE.
We have the most corrupt administration in US history. Obama, Holder, Clinton, etc. The sad thing is that this is the same man that said he would have the most transparent government ever. Obama is a joke.
Tommy, go lift some weights or go for a jog like Kibble's recommended. Your schizophrenia is showing again and this time you think you are a boxer. LOL! What a clown.
I am scared of equities. Very scared, which is why I'm probably sticking to commodities pretty soon. The 1 point SPY dip this week came on 10M shares. A simple mistake could easily cause a 20% crash in one day.
Maybe we FINALLY get some down moves. There are over 1,000,000 VIX puts WELL in the money compared to roughly 31,000 calls in the money at all strikes COMBINED. VIX options expire Tuesday so we'll see if the rising VIX trendline comes into play and possibly turns into a rocketship going forward!
VIX divergence (uptrend VIX, uptrend SPX) is traditionally good for about a 100 point correction. A lot of indicators have gone bust though so who knows. Good luck!
Wall Street will be out long before Ben says he is winding down QE, which could be as soon as the June meeting. The only people left will be muppets.
Well, if you DON'T include yourself and add me to the +9, then you get your magical 10 to 1 idiots ratio! Another good call Tommy! You are red hot as eyeinthesky2013.
Tom is going to be Tom. He is bitter and had to change screen names simply because his record was so bad when he was NYCTom_2000. He got lucky this time in that the SPX made a quick 100 point move up in a couple weeks. It won't last forever for him.
No further comment.
Index (Ticker) Shorts Shorts as % of longs (current) Shorts as % longs, 5-year average
Dow Mini (DMA) 8,738 19% 49%
S&P eMini (ESA) 326,000 55% 101%
S&P 500 Index (SPA) 10,512 81% 108%
S&P 400 Index (MID) 4,649 21% 71%
Russell 2000 (RTA) 44,193 72% 254%