$12.55 should be strong support, it coincides with a head and shoulder continuation target on a line on close daily chart. I bought some today on the close, since it closed above the $13.37 historic low. I'll stop out or cut my loss on two closes below $12.55.
The disconnect here with ALCOA is the value add business. The market is treating ALCOA like a commodity business. When the two businesses are separated, low aluminum prices will benefit the value add business and high aluminum prices will benefit the commodity side. There will be a distinct aluminum price correlation between the two separated businesses.
Klaus my main man said aluminum prices will go up within the next three months, due to production cuts. I wonder if it is good or bad for the value add side?
Like wise, the same thing maybe happening to other BDCs with oil related investments. However, PNNT is the most transparent, and shares information about their oil related investments.If there is any loss, they will probably spread the loss out over time to secure a dividend.
I bought some going into PNNT earnings and to my surprise, it actually went up. I took profits on earnings day. I was listening to the previous conference call the night before earnings, and they seem to have had some issues with a few oil holdings, as I recall, Art was trying to explain what was going on. I came away with," They did not want to sell any oil assets in a fire sale and bought sometime to liquidate a few years in the future." In other words, they won't be dropping a bomb soon, but some where down the line there will be a blimp on the radar screen.
NMM projected cash flow for each of the next three years is greater than the 2015 figure. Also, if you look at the GCC commodity etf it is trading below the historic low set in the 2008 market crash. In phase three of the business cycle commodities will reverse trend and take the market up to new highs.
If you bought below the historic low, maybe you should consider holding for CVRR to test the previous high, and collect the divi while you wait, even if it drops below your buy point. Worst case is 11.79. The gap up today is considered a strong reversal gap up because it is going counter trend. It is also, considered to be a crack and snap where institutions let the price break the historic low before stepping in and supporting the stock.
The close of the preferred offer was on July 8, 2014. The first payment was announced on 9/22/14 for July 8 to Oct 14, 2014. The next one was announced on December 16, 2014 for Oct 15, 1914 to Jan 14, 2015. The third payment was announced on 3/30/15 for Jan 15, 2015 to April 14, 2015. The forth payment was announce on 6/23/1957 for April 15, 2015 to July 14, 2015. The fifth payment was announce on 9/22/15 for July 15, 2015 to Oct 14,2015.The most recent announcement was on 12/15/2015 for Oct 15, 2015 to Jan 14, 2016. This up coming one should follow the same time line, so it will be announce probably on March 31, Thursday 2016.
NAT released a letter to share holders. He seem upset that the market is devaluing his company at a time where tankers are benefiting the most from low oil prices.
I use PSEC as the bench mark for the bottom. I was waiting for it to hit $5.30 and I had a good until cancel order in place which got filled the day before they announced earnings. $5.30 was the all time low that was set on a freak sell off day (8/28/15). I was there when it happen. I remember buying 10k shares on the bottom and selling at the top, in one day cleared over $15,000. I agree, this could be a possible bottom. The capitulation volume was greater than 8/28/15. However, PSEC need to get above $6.15 to break the $5 target curse still in play.
It seem like all the BDC's adjusted their NAV with the uncertainty of the market. MCC closed at a major support, if it breaks, the next level down would be 2.36. An institution or mgt must step in to support the stock tomorrow or sell it and buy it back cheaper. I still have some left in my IRA, I forgot all about it. Its not dead yet.