The phase three trial started in March 2013 and will end in March 2016. They will probably be compiling the year end March 2015 data to be released in conjunction with the April 6 cut off date for the new offering.
Lets say you bought 1000 shares yesterday and it drop .40 cents. What would you do? Buy more to average down or wait for it to go lower? Some will buy and some will wait. I doubt if anyone sold. Anyway with that said, the actual price target based on the pattern break down was around $1.75, so the price drop may have reinvigorated the stock. The thing about SNTA is they will release the progress of their phase three trial in the second half of the year.
With China,Korea,Japan, Taiwan, and India all lowering interest rates the US dollar must be pegged with the EURO. As long as the EURO stays stronger than the US dollar things can work out as ASIAN countries recover.
According to my graph of the business cycle, pharmaceuticals take a hit on stage 3 of the business cycle and comes back strong going into stage 4. I think stage three occurs right before the first interest rate hike, but I am not sure what stage we are on. All we know is that the pharma etfs BIB and the IBB both had a gap reversal which could likely be the top. Furthermore, according to my graph, diversified metals should rally when pharma reverses down on stage 3. Any way things seem to be different this time around with QE. According to Martin Pring, "In a secular market things that shouldn't go wrong does go wrong," like the up coming Greek bail out, it will probably go wrong and take metals down with the overall market.
The market seem tired, so I went all cash. However, after the market does its thing, I'll be picking the low hanging fruit. Hopefully, SNTA doesn't release any news before the second half. In my opinion, SNTA's update on their phase 3 trial will be a reversal point. It is always the most darkest before the stars come out.
Asian markets rally when ever the US dollar go up. However, the US market decline when ever the dollar strengthens. I think I heard Yellen say something about giving other countries time to recover before increasing rates. Anyway, if you can find the right asian stocks or etfs (ASHR,ASHS) you might be able to hedge against the strengthening dollar and collect your dividend.
There is also a series of lower lows and lower highs on a daily chart which tells us the direction of the trend is down. Also, technically on a weekly chart we see the stock trading below all the moving averages.. Furtheremore, it is rolling over on the first hit of the 20sma, and the velocity of the move down is very strong.
Look at a monthly chart. Do you see the M pattern or upside down W pattern with 11.06 as support. Basically we are looking for two closes below that number to put that pattern in play. Now switch to a weekly chart, we see one candle close below 11.06. Lastly, switch to a daily chart, we see two candles that confirm the move down, and a strong institutional type sell off on the retracement test.
Martin Pring pointed out that fast falling commodity prices is one of the reasons that cause a secular bear market and it is being compounded with policy error. He went on to say that the most troubling policy error is the budget deficit and the sense of urgency to keep it confined because at some point interest rates will go up and we will have a bigger problem.
NMM broke a major support (11.09) and retraced to test it as a resistance. The test confirmed 11.09 as resistance. The next level down for a bounce is $8. However, they may be gunning for $5. In 2008 it hit a low of 3.10.
You are right about the SPY going higher, but it will probably hit its peak in 4 years, based on John Templeton's 10 year bull market and 5 year bear market theory. However, according to William O'Neil's short term view, typically bull markets run for two years, followed by a one year bear market.
To support your belief that the SPY will go higher, we need to look at a long term yearly chart. On the yearly chart, we can clearly see the perfect box or W pattern with a very clear price target of about $234.43. Furthermore, the first break down on the weekly that I spoke about bounced and made a higher low, so a new up trend line is still in play. However, I believe the market is setting up for a shake out before they take it higher.
They had a chance to take it down on the 4th hit of the daily wedge pattern, but instead they broke it out. The next level is $9.