IWB Im working from home and had CNBC on for part of the morning.
It did seem that every analyst on there is expecting a higher rates / higher 10 year.
Which would still put a bit of a bearish stance on mreits even though their prices are getting compelling at this range.
"AND NOW MTGE IS GETTING A TASTE OF IT - JUST PURE NONSENSE."
I'm actually contemplating buying MTGE!
This is such a beat down price.
Maybe trending u pfor good now?
Heading up today for those of you still holding.
Interest rate sell off is over for now or permanently you mean?
Tapering hasn't started.
Someone will have to come in and buy all the MBS the fed is buying.
Your right probably there will be a difference in NAV.
But companies like AGNC will be carrying a capital loss on MBS and any gains on the sale of MBS will go against the capital loss (not to the dividend) going forward.
So it does appear like the days of the fat 20% yield are gone for now since they were using MBS gains to pad the dividend.
This is what a new reit can avoid.
I'm going to share my random manic thoughts here before heading off to bed.
Some of this is for you IWB and why it would be good to just sit out of mreits right now if I'm right or you believe me here.
Once tapering starts or perhaps even when it ends and rates settle, I can see there being new mreits.
We will have new IPO's.
They will have some delta of time between when long term rates settle and short term rates rise so they can get in rite at the sweet spot.
They will come with none of the bagage from the taper period.
They can protect themselves from rising repo rates when the short end rises with swaps or buying repo duration.
Javeli ipo'd in Oct 2012.
Cherry HIll Mortgage ipo'd in Oct 2013
So even now in the bad times we are seeing new mreits.
Just some food for thought because I'd be willing to bet just about anything we will see new reits when fed pulls out and/or when rates have settled.
"You are a stupid dip sh_t liar."
I would normally agree with you, but looking at your post history you can't write a coherent sentence.
I thought you meant they are late to the part and beating a dead horse at this point (as in everyone else has their downgrades in already).
So I was concurring to that.
MITT can cover their bacon with their 1.59 undistributed income.
We'll see how it goes for everyone else.
I think it's not going to be so good.
MTGE might be ok.. but others will cut.
Didn't you like MITT a little while ago.
Why do you keep switching around?
It's really hard to believe anything you say on here since you seem more like a SCHIZOPHRENIC when it comes to investing.
Here is the full cut from the AGNC portion.
They expect a 2014 total return of 4%.
Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on American Capital Agency (NASDAQ: AGNC) with a Sell. PT $18.50.
Analyst Eric Beardsley comments, "We are Sell rated on AGNC, as we expect book value to fall as rates rise and spreads widen post Fed tapering. As AGNC continues to take actions to protect book value by taking down leverage, rotating into shorter-duration assets, and increasing its hedge ratio, we estimate continued earnings headwinds and an increased risk to dividends. We expect book value to fall 15% from $25.27 in 3Q13 to $21.39 by 4Q14, and that the stock trades to 0.86x this level (vs. current levels of 0.78x) for our $18.50 price target for 6% price downside. We expect 2014 dividends of $2.00, implying a dividend yield of 10% on current price levels, bringing the total return for 2014 of 4%, which is relative underperformance vs. the 10% average total return for our Neutral-rated coverage universe."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on American Capital Agency click here. For more ratings news on American Capital Agency click here.
Shares of American Capital Agency closed at $19.75 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $19.21-$33.31.
This is from Seeking alpha.. in case any of you didn't see it.
* Initiating coverage on the sector giants, Goldman sees both Annaly (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC) as Sells.
* "We expect book value to fall as rates rise and MBS spreads to widen post Fed tapering," says analyst Eric Beardsley, giving NLY a $9.50 price target. With management taking actions to protect said book value such as moving into short-duration assets and boosting hedges, expect more earnings headwinds and dividend cuts of about 40%. An expected dividend of $0.80 per share is an 8% yield based on the current stock price. Total return of 2% over the next year compares to 10% Beardsley expects for the overall mREIT sector (REM).
* It's the same story for AGNC which gets an $18.50 price target. Beardsley expects book value to fall 15% to $21.39 by Q4 next year and the dividend to drop to $2 - a 10% yield based on the current stock price. He sees total return of 4% over the next year, again compared to 10% for the overall sector.
Related ETFs: MORL, MORT
FSC finally decided to rally a bit.
9.44 +0.15 (1.67%)
They can get in the MSR game now since they bought a licensed company and don't have to go through the application process to get a License to be an MSR broker.
Yup, not sweating it.
From my mindset, you just aren't going to win every secondary flip.
Just the way it is.
Fortunately the last five I think posted on here were all positive.
Five out of Six ain't bad. : )
I sold it this morning when the market started heading South and took abou a $400 loss.
You win some you lose some.
Just not feeling overly frothy right now with the bear market week going on.
Hatedaft,.. more news on bonds at least.
Pimpco and Doubleline had another month of outflows.
I don't follow the pimpco fund.
I know the doubleline has a large percentage of MBS.
Just another lump of bad news on the MBS front.
reik, just curious. I don't follow tcpc in great detail.
I was looking in my trades.
I bought it for 15.58 on the last secondary and later flipped them out and took the gain.
Do you think maybe it just ran up to much?
In 2.5 month it went from the 15.50's to 17.