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Avid Technology, Inc. Message Board

xyznewton 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 26, 2013 4:33 AM Member since: Feb 26, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Where now for Avid?

    by xyznewton Apr 12, 2012 12:43 PM
    xyznewton xyznewton Apr 26, 2013 4:33 AM Flag

    Unsurprising to see Ken Sexton the former CFO has been shown the door by the incoming CEO Louis Fernandez. A wise move and indicator for me at least that there is more bad news on the horizon regarding accounting at Avid. Louis Fernandez has one shot at cleaning Avid up at the start of his tenure. I expect that when the 2012 results are finally reported they will be bad, and previous years accounts will have to be restated, - not for the better. I cannot reconcile how $250M of goodwill sits on the 2011 Avid balance sheet relating to products and business units Avid has either closed, divested or terminated, in 2011 this represented 40% of Avid's assets. I think Avid has a real credibility problem at the moment and I think the stock has yet to hit new lows and is uninvestable this side of the 2012 results.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    ____why postponed Q4 earning announcement?

    by jdcbsufb Jan 17, 2013 2:07 PM
    xyznewton xyznewton Jan 23, 2013 9:14 AM Flag

    It will be interesting to see how goodwill is treated in the 2012 accounts, as most of the big Avid aquistions relating to this goodwill have now been divested?

  • Reply to

    Where now for Avid?

    by xyznewton Apr 12, 2012 12:43 PM
    xyznewton xyznewton Nov 28, 2012 8:39 AM Flag

    8 months later and the stock has halved again. I rest my case.

  • xyznewton by xyznewton Apr 12, 2012 12:43 PM Flag

    I was an investor in Avid and the former CEO David Krall some years ago, I just had a look at Avid again. I can't say I'm impressed. Extracted from yesterdays prelim Q12012 results

    "The company currently expects revenues for the three-month period ended March 31, 2012 to be approximately $152 million. First quarter revenues //down approximately 30 percent compared to the first quarter of 2011.

    The GAAP operating loss for the first quarter of 2012 is currently expected to be approximately $15 million."

    I still remember Gary Greenfield's 'get Avid fit' message back in Dec 08 with the stock at $28. ( When I sold out ) Four years on this is a sick company by any stretch of the imagination. Another thumping loss and an unsustainable reduction in revenues.

    I don't think the managemnt team have a handle on the business at all, the guidance and results are invariably poor. I think even at these prices it's a risky volatile investment.

    However what strikes me is that David Krall always had a clear insight, vision and direction for the business, he was a great communicator -and it's that quality customers and investors bought into. I was happy to invest in Mr Krall. As for Mr Greenfield, well I'll just wait another 6 months for the next CEO to land.

  • xyznewton xyznewton Aug 11, 2011 9:19 AM Flag

    You could do worse than look at the quarterly and annual filings for Avid from 2007 to date. In FY2007 Avid had revenues of $929M, $208M in cash and total assets of $1Bn. They were however loss making -0.19 per share. In FY 2010 they filed revenues of only $678M, had only $42M in cash and total assets of only $626M and a loss of -0.44. The trend isn't up. Now have a good look at the first half 2011 results. In April 2011 Avids CEO guidance was 2011 full year revenues will range $700-720M and profitability. Following the Q2 the actual 2011 first half revenues are only $327M which points to something in the range of $660M for FY2011. However the operational costs ( R&D SG&A etc) are apparently scaled against $700- $720M in revenue. I'm interested why you think next Q will look so great...as they're going to have to find another $40M revenue across Q3 & Q4 just to get back on plan for FY 2011.

  • Reply to

    Barron's 9/7/09 page 27

    by bowonwing Sep 6, 2009 12:05 AM
    xyznewton xyznewton Sep 7, 2009 2:23 PM Flag

    The idea of the $60,000 Avid production system is really 3 years old. I understand Avid pricing is now in the same ball park (sub $10K ) as Apple. However this pricepoint is where Avid must start to hurt, they can't make good margin on a 3rd party CPU and OS ( as can) Apple. This is a war of attrition that I can't see Avid winning. Apple also now claim to have a majority share in the professional editing market, I believe making Avid an 'also ran' alongside Adobe and Sony. This also seems to correlate with Avid sales turning down - 30% YoY last Q. I'd really expect a small company like Avid to out innovate Apple, but no it seems it's Apple running rings around Avid - for example an i Phone app that integrates directly into Final Cut Pro- how neat ...

    The only way I can see Avid winning in the long term is through clear product innovation, but look at the press releases over the last 12 months - really no announcments of signifiance. So I'm not holding my breath on this one ( or Avid stock )

  • Reply to

    BANKRUPTCY.........

    by afitzho Jan 21, 2009 7:07 PM
    xyznewton xyznewton Feb 26, 2009 6:31 AM Flag

    I'd recommend you do some 101 financial training before start a thread like this. In the current climate it's not helpful. I also don't think you understand the scope of Avids business. The majority of Avids business is not in competition with FCP, FCP is in competition with just a part of Avids portfolio. Avid also have audio products, news and transmission products. They deliver large systems to customers such as NBC and CBS. So it incorrect to characterize their business as a failing one trick pony. Having said that they're not having an easy time of it, (who is?). I think the honeymoon is over for the new management team who have been in place for over a year now. I'm concerned they haven't been able to give guidance for the current quarters revenue. Some analysts ( at the low end ) target Avid stock at $6, the median is around $10. If the revenue is again weak this Q, I guess the stock could test these lower levels, however the flip side is Avid also becomes a more interesting stock.
    There is also a lot to be said for corporations that actually have cash in the bank......

AVID
7.10-0.15(-2.07%)Apr 16 3:59 PMEDT

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