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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

y2kurtus 221 posts  |  Last Activity: May 20, 2013 9:58 PM Member since: Aug 13, 2003
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  • Simply amazing track record buddy. If your travels ever bring you to Maine look me up. I'd love to buy you all the lobster you can eat in 1 sitting!

    Keep the great ideas coming and you're going to be more responsible for putting my daughter through college than I am!

    Sincerely & Gratefully, Kurt Garascia

    Sentiment: Hold

  • y2kurtus y2kurtus Sep 21, 2012 9:46 PM Flag

    I was working so hard today I totally missed seeing this pop in my portfolio. Who sells us this stuff!

    I'd love to pay you back for all the great leads you've posted. Have you ever checked out SGMA. Looks like it's trading at 50% of tangable book. 2x trailing 12 month cash flows.

    Cons are it never trades and on a couple of message boards it looks like some people are questing the value of the inventory on the books.

    Any thoughts?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I closed out my ZLC position at a nice %gain this morning. Another win to add to the long list of picks I owe you thanks for!

    I'm pretty gunshy at buying anything at current levels but I'm following SGMA pretty closely. Their trading at less than half NTA if you can trust their numbers.

    Ever looked at that one?

  • Reply to

    What's going on?

    by neutrophilcd4 Aug 28, 2012 5:05 PM
    y2kurtus y2kurtus Aug 30, 2012 5:04 PM Flag

    There has been a lot of press recently regarding low U.S. birth rates. Fewer kids means fewer cribs/toys ect.

    Having said that I'm way long (and so far way wrong) on KID. I doubled down today so if it makes it back to my original buy price of $2 then I'm ahead of the game.

    This company is clearly in distress right now but it's simply a rare thing to be able to buy a positive cashflow company for 1/10th sales.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hello again old friend who I've never met. This big runup makes Cybex the most profitable investment I've ever made outside of the energy sector. My question is how do we value Cybex going forward?

    My calculations put it slightly above bookvalue at the current price. So it is no longer the ultra-deep value play I bought into.

  • While 44.50 may seem generous compared to yesterdays close take a look at the 52 week chart... this stock was pushin $80.

    Take another look at BMY's buyout of Inhibitex... they offered more than DOUBLE the market value of the company. I'll be the first to admit that a 100% premium is hard to justfy in this market but this is worth every penny of fifty bucks and I won't tender for any less.

  • Reply to

    Massive squeeze coming

    by rocketdan2000 Nov 2, 2011 2:13 PM
    y2kurtus y2kurtus Nov 2, 2011 3:49 PM Flag

    that is exactly the scenerio I expect to see. I'd settle for $12.50 in a year. $14/share not impossible if the NYC real estate is as valuable as some people seem to think.

    This is a high risk/high reward play and there will likely be a period of low or even NO liquidity so if you can't hold until the final settlement you should probably sell here.

  • Reply to

    Liquidation value is $11.75

    by topresearch27 Nov 2, 2011 11:32 AM
    y2kurtus y2kurtus Nov 2, 2011 1:01 PM Flag

    It all comes down to the NYC real estate. Some people think that one property is worth nearly 100million. It's carried on the books at only around 10million.

    The inventory should go pretty close to book... remeber it's all bought at firesale prices anyway and carried at cost.

    In my view the outcome is going to be driven almost exclusively by the real etate sales. The ONLY reason I can think of that huge buying is going on today is that someone who wants the real estate thinks the cheapest way to get it is to buy the equity.

  • Lets hope they at least maintained their balance sheet... that's why I bought in. Eventually this company should be sold. They are too small to justify the expence of listing on the exchanges and the regulatory burden that comes with that.

    I want a fair valuation though... not interested in selling anywhere near todays firesale level price.

  • y2kurtus by y2kurtus Oct 25, 2011 5:05 PM Flag

    Wide insider ownership with recent buying.
    Low price to cashflow of about 4x trailing 12 months.
    Low price to book.
    Some of the leaders seem to be shareholder friendly investor types rather than empire building paycheck focused types.

    Here's hoping for a takeout with a nice premium.

    Good luck to all!

  • Reply to

    LT followers--- Lemmings

    by jumpinstaylongandstrong Aug 18, 2011 11:28 PM
    y2kurtus y2kurtus Aug 23, 2011 12:14 PM Flag

    If you win you'll have far less time to write about investments and I love reading your stuff!

    I'm kidding about you losing of course. Best of luck. Anyone willing to brave the hornets nest of local politics is a better man than I!

    -y2kurtus

  • Why on earth would a board of directors take an action to deter someone from buying shares in their own company from a willing seller on the open market.

    No reason at all poision pills like the one CMC's board approved should even be legal.

    If management thinks Ichan is trying to buy on the cheap than they can FIND ANOTEHR BUYER OR TAKE IT PRIVATE THEMSELVES.

    What they won't get away with is telling someone else that they can't buy shares that I OWN.

    This poision pill is TOTAL BS!

  • Reply to

    I'm out...for now.

    by longtimefollower Jun 13, 2011 12:38 PM
    y2kurtus y2kurtus Jun 17, 2011 10:50 AM Flag

    Who are the big rev ad buyers on the print side?

    #1 Cars - dealers are typically restricted from putting prices in online adds.

    #2 Homes - and every real estate agency now has all their listings online on their own site and all the national sites as well.

    I just don't see how online can ever really help a local. Anyone who thinks more than a handful people are going to pay $80 for online access is a lunatic.

    What they need to do is take an unholy soleless chainsaw to the cost structue and give every employee that remains from the janator, copy writer, beat reporter, photographer, right up to the CEO an ad sales quota to stop the rev loss.

    Anything short of that level of desperation and my few thousand shares are going to end up worthless.

  • Reply to

    Marcy the Magnificent

    by y2kurtus May 26, 2011 10:58 AM
    y2kurtus y2kurtus May 26, 2011 2:30 PM Flag

    I'm a mostly blind squirl who found a this nut recently. I'm still not entirely convienced that Marcy will sell.

    If they do sell I think it's worth $12 if "after reviewing stretegic alterntives the board has decided to continue with our present strategy to grow sales and provide outstanding value and service to our educated customers..." well then we're right back where we started... perhaps lower.

    All my holdings are tax advantaged so I can sell any time... I'm just wondering if Marcy is crazy enough to go through with the stretegic review just to get the outside investors off her back and avoid/delay a lawsuit by minority shareholders... with the intention of continuing the status quo. That would be off the wall nuts and she would be throwing away her dynastic family wealth in the process so I doubt she would do it knowingly...

    I guess I'm still in a this is too good to be true mode!

    Holding out for a while longer.

  • It's about time baby... Rothchild to review strategic alternitives for SYMS.

    Now the question is valuation... should I take the money and run at 9.50 or hang on for $12 if the real estate is a valuable as everyone says!

    Any thoughts longtimefollower?

  • Reply to

    Wow, That's a Low Price!

    by whatdoiknow_2000 May 18, 2011 11:44 AM
    y2kurtus y2kurtus May 18, 2011 4:06 PM Flag

    ok... kudos to you that subject line is pure gold!

    This sell off is way overdone... buy and hold for 12 months and you'll see a nice bounce.

  • y2kurtus y2kurtus May 3, 2011 12:11 PM Flag

    APA has a market cap of roughly 50 billion to XOM's 425 billion.

    For the most part yahoo finance does a good job but once and a while they post numbers that don't make any sence. Whenever you spot one check it with another site like Smartmoney, reuters, bloomberg, marketwatch ect.

    Your brokers web research will also have better more timely data than Yahoo's free numbers.

    Good luck. I just bought some more APA today. I think the market is deeply undervalueing their 2010 aquisitions.

  • Reply to

    LOTS of CASH!!!!

    by Networthdev Feb 15, 2011 9:01 AM
    y2kurtus y2kurtus Apr 11, 2011 4:10 PM Flag

    This company has always been good at generating cash... but now this looks cheap to the extreem.

    Look for a buyout firm to try and steal this for a 20% premium and fund almost half the purchase of the company with cash from JAKKs own balance sheet.

    It would be like buying a new porsche for $90,000... but the new owner finds $40,000 when he opens the glove box. This would be a pretty sweet deal if they could pull it off.

  • Reply to

    TSLA's unsolvable problem...

    by y2kurtus Jul 6, 2010 4:21 PM
    y2kurtus y2kurtus Jul 6, 2010 5:11 PM Flag

    The Aveo and Prius are in different classes for starters... the Prius seats 5 adults pretty well the aveo seats zero adults well!

    Your point is totally valid however... you can buy a Prius sized car like an Impala or Accord and a couple of years worth of gas thrown in.

    The Prius is in my mind still a choice that consumers make to benifit the enviroment... the cost is roughly a 10% markup for a comprablely sized car. The Tesla sedan will be more like a 100% markup.

    I wish them well... I just think it will be very tough sledding getting the middle class to pay a couple hundred dollars more each month for an "eco-sports sedan" than they would for an eco-sedan (Prius / element) or a sports car.

  • Reply to

    TSLA's unsolvable problem...

    by y2kurtus Jul 6, 2010 4:21 PM
    y2kurtus y2kurtus Jul 6, 2010 4:53 PM Flag

    I'll grant you that... the Sedan will have more "punch" off the line than a Prius or Element, or Leaf... but nothing close to the 4 second roadster.

    The performance edge will be a nice selling point against a Prius/leaf/element...

    It's just a tough sell cost wise to me... if you're interested in performance you can get a Mustang, Camero, Challenger, Mini Cooper, Mitsubishi Eclipse Spyder GT,or BMW3series... AND gas for 10 years at $4/gallon... or you can get the Tesla sedan...

    To me it's just a small niche... get people who love the enviroment enought to spend twice the cost of a comprable car and also love performance enough to justify doubling the cost of a Piris... like I said... it's just a tough sell.

    Let's pray that the cost of batteries drop like a rock... I just don't see that though... computer laptops are a brutally price competitive mature market... not a likely source for rapidly dropping costs.

    Good luck!

HTCH
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