Typo correction, second sentence of second paragraph: "... multi-billion outstanding share count..." not multi-billion dollar outstanding share count.
If memory serves, the company previously stated that they anticipate 100 dealers in the next year. That would be an average of roughly 2 new dealerships a week (52 weeks x 2 = 104).
Among my concerns is that 100 dealers in one year is a much slower pace of dealer sign ups than I had expected and hoped for. In my opinion it is way too slow a pace to generate a rapid enough increase in revenues to come anywhere near offsetting the huge apparently multi-billion dollar outstanding share count, and its impact on any eventual EPS calculation, anytime soon. Unfortunately, a recent tweet by the company the last day or so says the following: "SMS has so many dealer applications coming in were adding dealers monthly come join the family." Words have meaning. Unless they are just blithering idiots, if the company was adding two new dealers a week, or even just one a week, they would have stated they were adding dealers weekly, not monthly. But they said monthly. This clearly tells me that they are no where near a 2 new dealer a week pace, not even half that, and are thus no where near on track for the previously stated 100 dealers in the next year. Just my opinion, but that's what they appear to be confirming, whether they intended to do so or not. This appears to clearly be further evidence of an even slower pace of dealer sign ups, and that is not good, since they opted for the dealership approach as their primary means of distribution, at least here in the US, their principle current market and by far the largest market.
And this is just one concern. There are others. The current downtrend in share price could easily be nowhere near over. Heck, $.001 has already failed and is only barely hanging in there, and the next key support level is way down in the $.0002 area. Anything is possible, maybe it is just much more time that they need, but I for one do not have blinders on.
I just stated what I was doing, and why, as I have always done, and only done from time to time. What people do with that input is up to them. But when people attack me, or try to use my past words to discredit me and my input, thoughtlessly disregarding the time factor, and new information, I consider it a reasonable thing to from time to time respond. GLTA
No splanin. Since then, among other things, we've seen the chart breakdown, we've seen the company confirm that further old toxic debt remains that has yet to be cleared out (as before, a huge share price risk), we've seen the company confirm a target of 100 dealers over the next year, which is a much slower pace than I was expecting or hoping for. Back then they had said another shipment to Korea would be announced shortly, suggesting imminent, and not only did that not happen, but just the other day they not only did not confirm that was done two months ago, but they repeated the same thing, that that next shipment would be announced shortly; and this is even more of a let down when you recall that back with that first and apparently only shipment occurred, they basically that we could expect shipments to be on the ocean constantly headed back and forth. Not only is the dealership sign up slower than I expected, but shipments to Korea are slower than expected as well. AND with so sickeningly high an outstanding share count, apparently over 2B, so slow a pace suggests at best that sufficient revenues to offset the terrible eps calculation with so many o/s will take a very, very long time, and at worst, they just are not seeing the demand and the repeat purchases by the end user that they have hoped for. Buy and hold, buy and homework, your choice. As always, time will tell. I just hate the idea of how much time this could easily take, assuming it even succeeds in the end. Attack me all you want, but it's reasonable arguments I make. Disagree if you want. That's what makes a market. If you read it carefully, Friday's FB post by the Veal was a let town, and I absolutely don't like the chart right now, I'll tell you that. GLTA
Just read the Veal Facebook update: A lot of nice sounding generalities, and promising potential, but little confirmed substance, nothing specific about if and when filings will ever resume, and frankly, nice sounding stories are a dime a dozen. All their plans sound nice, but a few specific points of possible concern, stand out, such as "...the remaining unsettled derivative financing..." Sounds to me like confirmation of more big selling expected at some point from all the previous toxic financing they had to do that has not yet cleared out. That was the very thing that apparently drove the price all the way down to below $.0002 earlier this year. And I repeat, the referenced pace of 100 dealerships within the next 12 months, this is positive, but a much slower pace than I would like to see, especially with the apparent billions of outstanding shares, a sickeningly high amount, directly relevant to any future eps calculation, and no reference to anything being done about such. I would also point out that they have been referring to an expected next shipment heading over to Korea, first months ago, then weeks ago, and now today, they say the same thing again. When they originally described the first and apparently only shipment so far to Korea they stated something to the effect that ships would be continuously on the ocean going back and forth. From what I can see, including in today's facebook, not only has that not happened, but they've still only sent one shipment over. Again, much slower than I was previously expecting and hoping for.
I love the "story". The devil's in the details, however, and it's those details that worry me. Time will tell if I get back in, but time is the key, apparently a lot more of it. And all this vagueness doesn't help. GLTA
Anything is possible, of course, but I've locked in a pretty darn good net profit in two accounts, and I do not like the chart at all anymore. $.001 looks at real risk, and that's just a classic psychological support level, not anything particular to the history of the stock, so it's a rather weak one. If it gets back down to the $.0002 long term support range I may consider getting back in, but too much is unknown, the potential though real is in no way certain, and the o/s count is just way too high for me to risk giving back all my profits, or for me to have any confidence that anything big will happen anytime soon. Revenues will have to be literally huge to overcome the apparent multi-billion o/s count and make any dent in the hoped for eventual eps calculation, and to get to that level it will take a very long time at the current reported pace of dealership sign ups. GLTA
I would disagree, unfortunately. Even if you do believe in the product/company, for which I see potential but not a guarantee, even if you do believe in the product/company, with the apparent multi-BILLION o/s count, this need not be oversold at all. The technical chart, and recent breakdown and now downtrend, would suggest this as well. It may try to find support at $.001 but at this point that is more a wish and a prayer than anything else. That the financials are not being filed doesn't help either, though even if they do get filed later this fall or early next year, if they confirm the radically high o/s count, the filings might make matters worse not better, even if we do see nice growth in revenues in such. This is a #$%$ shoot at this point. Having sold most of my position, and having those emotions cleared up as a result, my perspective on this is changing.
Nothing's changed? What, are you an idiot? Look at the chart! That's huge one. The pace of dealers being signed up is as best we can tell much slower than the original hype and hope had us, or at least me, expecting. That's a second. Nothing's changed? Get clue, man. Disagree if you want. Ignore my legitimate concerns if you want. But I for one do not ignore such key technical and fundamental information. Oh, and you'll be watching me. Oh no. You'd do much better watching the stock and the underlying company.
What the heck are you talking about? I've read people on this board speculating various o/s counts, including 2B, 2.2B, 2.5B, and the possibility of even more. I have no idea what the count is. I do know that 5B have been authorized, and I have been persuaded that it is at least 2B. Beyond that, who knows. I also know that 100,000 shares is a high share count in the legit, small cap world, that 500,000 is unusually high, and that a billion shares is crazy high. 2.2 billion is a radically high amount of outstanding shares. My God, the amount of revenue and earnings that must be generated to make even the tiniest dent in the EPS count is insane. They need a massive share buy back, or a reverse split to get that down to significantly more reasonable levels. I don't see revenues growing near fast enough to make a big enough dent anytime soon with share buyback route, and as a general rule I hate reverse splits since most often they don't work and screw the investor, at least short term. I've been rationalizing the huge o/s count for many many months now, but at the pace of new dealerships, I am increasingly concerned about just how long this could take, assuming, of course, the repeat end user sales even ramp up. In your reply to me, you seem to almost be implying that it's "only" 2.2B, and how dare I say it is more. You, it seems to me, are the one being coy. I made no such specific claim in my prior post. You are the one who did that. Again, people can read my words and decide for themselves if and how they want to factor them in.
That's one way of looking at it. Or... you can read what I say and weigh its value. A lot of time has gone by. A lot has happened... and not happened. The chart has not been holding up. And there are so many, many more outstanding shares than I ever imagined there would be, and we don't even know how many billions, yes billions, there are yet. I am neither blindly in favor or blindly against HJOE. I see its potential, but I also see today's reality, and its risk.
Ignore my input. Consider it. Threaten me with future insults. It's no matter. Good luck to all, especially those doing their best to make informed judgments... buy and homework, as Cramer says, not just buy and hold.
Going the route of dealerships for distribution, was always going to be a slower process, and that is exactly what it is turning out to be. Doesn't mean they won't eventually get there, but I am less than enthusiastic about the pace that is being discussed. And this is by no means a sure thing. The penny stock world is rife with great sounding stories that never amount to much. And this is a sub-penny. Cross our fingers, I do still have some shares, but this is as it has always been--high risk. GLTA
That is what the stock market has always been. I appreciate the idealism of your viewpoint, but it seems to me that you are viewing the stock market thru rose colored glasses. Human nature is human nature, it never changes, and the stock market reflects that time and time again, good and bad, and everywhere in between.
It's more than just not liking the current trend now, but I am increasingly concerned about some of the fundamentals as well, both current and potential. And in the end, the risk reward dynamic plays a major role as well.
I would disagree with you to a degree. I am not a trader. I am an investor. But I am not a buy and hold investor. There is an aspect of both to what i do however. I believe in select, ideally longer term, active investing. Cramer calls it "Buy and Homework". Sometimes I do trade out sooner than in retrospect I wish I had. Other times I hold much longer than I should have. I am constantly reassessing my decisions as facts, or lack of facts, seem to dictate. If I had to choose one investment methodology that most closely resembles what I believe it would be William O'Neil's CANSLIM. But I am by no means a purist there since his CANSLIM methodology would never, never have him in a penny stock. I guess I'm cherry picking a bit from a few different methodologies, based upon my own experience and comfort level. Bottom Line, I was no longer comfortable holding my positions in HJOE. I will continue to reassess as circumstances change. For now, I do not like the stock's trend. My approach for a long time now has been to build a growing core position and to trade around that core on major swings, using those trades to increase the core position without adding more money to the account. I built a rather large position doing this, but it got to a point that the trend dictating that I alter what I was doing. It is what it is. Right now, I see much great risk of downward momentum that bottoming. GLTA
I've been on board here for a long time, but I am losing confidence in the company and its prospects. Too much unknown. Too much uncertainty. Way too many outstanding shares! And we don't even know how many billions, yes I said billions, of shares there are. I sold all the shares in my IRA and 80% of them in my regular account in the $.002 to $.0019 range recently when it looked like it was about to break down. Overall, I made a tremendous profit since most of my purchases were down in the $.0002 range, but I did not want to give it all back, and down is where it looks like it is headed. I have no confidence it will stop at $.001 either. That is still way above the $.0002 range from earlier this year. And technically, it's already broken down thru the largest support at the $.0015 level. $.001 is just a common psychological support, and has no real teach beyond the emotions of it. If it falls far enough I might reconsider and buy back in, maybe, but frankly, I'm not too keen on the idea of holding any until we are past the first of the year and are out of danger of the authorized reverse split. Good luck all.
I disagree with your characterization. Anticipating and being disappointed is different than lying. You are making a leap I am not willing to make. I hope you are wrong.
I love what I am seeing on the fundamental growth side, in terms of increasing numbers of dealers. They do seem to be creating something real. And I do see the potential. On the other hand, at one point early on when they were first shipping product over to S. Korea, they referenced that ships would be constantly on the seas coming and going, but as far as I can tell this hasn't happened. Months ago they said there would be news shortly about another shipment heading over there, but no news, and then just the past week or so they again said it would be happening soon. As far as I can tell, that first shipment overseas is so far the only one, and they are falling behind on their promises. This apparent issue concerns me. And though I like this dealership approach, it is by its nature a slower, more methodical approach to ramping up big sales than signing up major PO's with a few major players, and continuing that route. And with so many billions of shares outstanding, and the uncertainty of just how many billions, this path they are on, though a solid trajectory, assuming repeat purchases are made ongoing at the individual consumer level, this path they are on can take a very, very long time to ramp up the tremendous amount of revenues needed to make even the tiniest of dents in the earnings per share (EPS) calculation. This massive dilution, that may or may not be fully over, is a huge, huge issue overhanging this stock. Add in all the additional uncertainties that come with no financial statements being filed, and even if, if, this eventually goes big, the stock could well drop way back from here until more certainty on details and numbers, and yes, thru filings, are confirmed. Long and strong here, I still am, but I'm not betting the boat, and not wanting to ride a stock way down, when I see the building technical weakness combined with all the above, I lightened up some defensively. And remember, potential does not guarantee success. Time will tell.
Ever hear of a little something called FIFO? Get a brain. Oh, and it's not about greed for a sub $.002 price either. You just sound like a jerk.