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Melco Crown Entertainment Limited Message Board

yan3kigndoms 76 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 27, 2015 11:13 AM Member since: Aug 24, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Bright side down side.

    by yan3kigndoms Mar 26, 2015 1:47 PM
    yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 27, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    I am not always positive. I hate the fact that I bought YGE instead of other tier 1. I thought FIFA would have a significant impact on their sales, pushing sales to 4-5GW. But it turned out to be a total waste of money. How can they justified spending FIFA/Bayern and to go from #1 to #4 by end of the year. Last year, they changed their business model by including downstream business. They spent significant resources to build out those downstream projects in 2014. We haven't cash in those projects yet. I have to give it couple quarters of them cashing in on their downstream business to see this new business model works. I have to let them go through couple cycles of building and selling downstream projects to really know well this company is doing. I have to give them at least until 2Q earning release. Yiyu said they will sell couple projects in 1H. So no, not positive. Actually quite mad. But have to put aside emotions when it comes to investing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • yan3kigndoms by yan3kigndoms Mar 26, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    Bright side. Currency exchange bottom out on March 13th and it's been going up ever since. The 2014 loss was $209 million. Can view that $209 million as an investment into 260MW downstream projects last year. If we connect 400-600MW in 2015. This will more than make up for the $206 million loss. When it is connected, we will start getting FIT payments and if we sell, a nice profit at good margins.
    Down side. I hate to hear that we are still sponsoring Bayern and FIFA. By the end of 2015, we might fall to 4th place. To overspend on marketing (FIFA) and to go from #1 to #4 clearly shows that marketing strategy doesn't work. They have to cut the cord on FIFA. Even just announcing that will bring our stock up. Another problem is they have way too much employees. Yingli has 19k vs SPWR 7K vs FSLR 6K. They have 2x more employees resulting in lower revenues. Yiyu needs to see this and start to gut the fat. We should be at most 10K employees.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Analysis of Conf call

    by yan3kigndoms Mar 25, 2015 1:53 PM
    yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 25, 2015 5:37 PM Flag

    kbasi, same here. Out of all those solar stocks at their all time lows, I bought YGE. All other solars already pass 1000% gains. I'm still stuck with YGE at $2. One note I mentioned in another post. China is trying to stimulate their economy. The central bank lowered interest rate 3 times in 6 months. I'm sure they will rollover on lower interest rates.

  • Reply to

    Buying Opportunity Under $2.00

    by stocksleuthcom Mar 25, 2015 12:05 PM
    yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 25, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    Haha, because I own the chop suey restaurant. I know CFO sucks. He has duck brains, What can I do? All these unexpected hits like Q4 2013 the "$80 million loss from inventory purchase commitment...polysilicon contract, and all those bad debt provisions and today they found an income tax error.

    Alex, people who are here, like myself are trying to hit home runs. If I want to hit singles I would buy P&G, GE, Colgate, etc. Bought 2 stocks just like YGE that were struggling with losses, high debt and with bankruptcy rumors. They were LVS and MPEL. Hit big home runs with over 1000% gains. Looking to do that here. Let see if I can go 3/3. But much patience is needed for this one.

    If YGE in 3 years hit 5GW, gross margins around 22%, good downstream business, debt under control around a billion. We could hit quarterly income of around $100 million. In that case, stock price should be over $20....for another 1000% gain.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buying Opportunity Under $2.00

    by stocksleuthcom Mar 25, 2015 12:05 PM
    yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 25, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    I see short term downward pressure for now. My guess will touch $1.80 again before bouncing back up. Long term holder, not going to affect me much. Most points to profitability by end of the year, so EOY could hit back to $5.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • yan3kigndoms by yan3kigndoms Mar 25, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    From analyzing the foreign exchange rates, I expected a big loss as the depreciation in Euro and Japan continues and it did not start to stabilize until this month. So Forex loss continues for Q1 2015. The only thing that can turn a net gain for Q4 was lowering OPEX. The reversed happened. The Q4 OPEX was the highest in 2014 at $125 million. That was 40 million more compared to Q3. Yiyu said that was from increase in R&D fundings on over 20 R&D projects in Q4. They spent the most in Q4 at $34 million on R&D. They also spend money on upgrading modules. I don't understand that cost when debts going to be due this year. What was that $90.5 million bad debt from long term customer? Another big hit was them finding "income tax error" $14.2 million. I am glad that they started to attack the very high account receivable and starting to lower the Medium notes that is due this year. They took down the medium notes from peak at Q4 2013 at $678 million down to $276 million in one year. Also, they finally said something on the Egypt project. Why did they not announced it until now? 500MW is a huge project.

    For Q1 2015, The forex loss continues. Increase shipment to China lowers gross margins. Looks like they did not cash in on their 2014 downstream project yet. Yiyu said they plan to sell 200-300MW projects to JV or 3rd party in 1H 2015. That will tip the scale for Yingli when they start to unload projects that they put all that money and resources on. I think Forex will start tipping back to Forex gains in the 2H 2015. Looks like can't ekk a profit until 3Q 2015.

    Very bad release. I predict we will end down 13% today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Some Thoughts on Yingli's Q4 Earnings

    by stocksleuthcom Mar 4, 2015 12:45 AM
    yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 23, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    The forex CNY per 1 EUR in Aug (3Q) was 8.25. In Nov (4Q) was 7.7. So forex loss would continue for 4Q. The loss is much worse for 1Q 2015 as the rate drops to 6.6 last month. Expecting a huge forex loss for 1Q 2015.
    The percentage forex loss for 3Q of revenue was 18 million loss of 551 million. Equals 3%. This is the same as Trina. Forex loss is at such a bad timing. The net loss for 3Q was -20million and the forex loss was -18million. If this was reverse, a forex gain, we could've end up with a positive EPS.
    Now, focusing on 4Q. If forex loss continues and the Gross Margins declines to 15-17% and the Revenue is same as 3Q, the only thing that can move us to profitability is a decrease in OPEX. Q3's OPEX of 82 million is too high, as Trina's Q3 OPEX was 67 million and that is with a higher revenue.
    The other thing that jumps out is account receivable. Yingli's 3Q account receivable was 866 million. That is huge. Trina's 3Q account receivable as 556 million. That is 300 million more. But I usually counteract that against Yingli's short term loans which was much higher.
    On the positive note. Yingli is looking to refinance their loans. China is trying to stimulate the economy and they been decreasing their interest rates. Nov 2014 was at 6%. They lower the rate on Dec 2014 to 5.6% and again just lowered it this month to 5.35%. Yingli's weighted average interest rate was 6.31% for the third quarter 2014. So refinancing now will significantly lower their interest expense. At the end, my guess for Q4 is EPS -.05. Improving, but still a loss. The forex is starting to reverse, we should start to get a forex gain for Q2 2015, and that is when I expect we will be profitable. Cheers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Algeria

    by yan3kigndoms Mar 20, 2015 12:09 PM
    yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 20, 2015 3:56 PM Flag

    Yes, this shows we will finally cash in on our Algeria projects. This is the beginning of a huge 233MW project. Lots of cashing in from downstream projects this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • yan3kigndoms by yan3kigndoms Mar 20, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    March 20 (SeeNews) - PowerChina (SHA:601669) said Friday its unit Sinohydro Corp has entered 50-day trial operations at a 15-MW solar park in the municipality of Souk-Ahras, Algeria.

    The plant is part of a larger 90-MW project.

    Sinohydro Corp Ltd is in charge of the construction of the photovoltaic (PV) scheme. The PowerChina unit is part of a consortium, led by Chinese solar firm Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd, that in late 2013 won contracts to design and build a total of 233 MW of solar capacity in Algeria. The tie-up also includes Hydrochina Corp, which is part of PowerChina, as well.

    The 90-MW scheme is divided into five separate facilities, located in a plateau region northeastern of the capital Algiers. Sinohydro sealed the deal for the 15-MW solar farm in end-February last year, but started building it in September 2014, due to delays in approvals and other issues.

    The Algerian PV park marks both PowerChina’s first job in the country and Sinohydro’s first overseas solar scheme, the Chinese engineering and construction company mentioned. The trial operations at Souk-Ahras are expected to conclude by the end of April 2015.

    Share this story

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • yan3kigndoms by yan3kigndoms Mar 17, 2015 8:51 PM Flag

    First time in a long while that solar goes opposite to oil prices. All Q4 releases showed abosolutely no correlation between solar and oil demands. Finally investors are finally figuring out for themslves and not listen to egghead analysts. I love the analyst that posted to short solar. Now he is down 20% and counting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 13, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    One thing I noticed is that Q3 account receivable was a record $866 million. That is 40% more than their revenue. If they can get some payments during Q4 in addition to selling couple downstream projects, we would be in good shape.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought some shares this morning on the dip

    by jbgillespie1974 Mar 13, 2015 10:15 AM
    yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 13, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    Solar following oil prices again. Oil inventory building up near capacity. Some predicting huge collapse in oil prices. Trend is still bearish if this continues.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Less competition in Europe, Panda awarded

    by yan3kigndoms Mar 9, 2015 4:18 PM
    yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 10, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    EU market has the highest profit margins for Chinese Solar. Yingli can jump in to fulfill the holes. I'm glad we finally have a date for Q4. I don't like the new accounting firm. They are too slow, last to report. Excited we should beat estimate. Hope to hear expanding capacity this year with n-MWT. But I think PERC is better. n-MWT might be cheaper to implement.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • European Commission removing Canadian Solar, ET Solar, and Renesola from its minimum price agreement. They will be subject to AD/CVD which will price them out of the European market. More customers for Yingli. Yingli's Panda PV modules took first place at the Heibei Technology Award Grand Meeting. It won for:

    1. Good weak light tolerance
    2. Excellent durability
    3. Low initial decay rate.
    4. Low cost and high conversion efficiency
    5. Especially suitable for distributed PV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Li Keqiang speaking in front of the congress promised to fight environmental degradation "with all our might" Boosting solar capacity to 100GW by 2020.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Record year quarter for solar

    by yan3kigndoms Mar 5, 2015 11:57 AM
    yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 5, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    Technical looking strong. This will bring in trend and short term traders. Very heavy buy volume for all Chinese solar stocks. Looking very good. So much for selling short.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • yan3kigndoms by yan3kigndoms Mar 5, 2015 11:57 AM Flag

    Every Chinese solar Tier 1 reported record year/ Q4 so far. Every conf call reported no affects from drop in oil prices. On the contrary solar is booming. No signs of surplus, in fact most are boosting capacity to meet demand. Trina and Canadian is shopping for new OEM to increase capacity for 2015. After Paris summit, 2016 will be even a bigger year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Some Thoughts on Yingli's Q4 Earnings

    by stocksleuthcom Mar 4, 2015 12:45 AM
    yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 4, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    Forex not looking good again. The U.S. dollar getting stronger. Q4 has lots of hurdles to eke out a profit. Large interest payment and forex hit. China recent reduction in interest rates, hopefully they can rollover their debt payment this year with a lower rate, thus cutting interest expense. They mentioned that they have billions in line of credit ready to go if needed.
    Interest expense
    2014 Q1,Q2,Q3 = 40.5, 37.5, 42.9
    2013 Q1234 = 35.7, 36.6, 43.8, 42.4
    I would like to see this number start to get lower and lower.
    My estimate too much headwind to be profitable. My guess is eps $-0.05.
    Hopefully they will announce a release date tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on Jinko's Earnings

    by stocksleuthcom Mar 2, 2015 3:52 PM
    yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 2, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    Wow JKS reported and it looks like oil glut has obsolutely no effect on solar. Go figure!

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on Jinko's Earnings

    by stocksleuthcom Mar 2, 2015 3:52 PM
    yan3kigndoms yan3kigndoms Mar 2, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    They plan increase to 4GW capacity. Getting good income from holding downstream projects. We could be looking at 4th place in terms of capacity end of 2015.

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