RO usually done at NAV plus 7%. Not much of a discount at these current market prices. Hope CLM and CRF move up smartly in the next two months. Only way RO looks attractive. Unless NAV plunges, but let's not go there.
The amazing thing to me is that they get third party financing to sell properties to themselves at inflated values.
The sell off occurs every once in a while when the market price gets too high compared to the NAV. If you watch this long enough, you can play these cycles. Sold this way over $10 some time ago, then moved on to other things, but always kept an eye on NCV and NCZ. Back in NCV at $9.56, will buy much more if it approaches the $9.20 NAV. Still think NCZ is too far above it's NAV, missed that blow down to $8.20 the other day. Otherwise, these are some of the better CEFS you will find. Fundamentally sound, just watch the market price.
When the Fed talks about inflation/deflation, there are only 2 things that matter, wages (concern about them rising since labor is the majority of business cost) and commercial real estate values (concern about them falling, undermining the collateral on tons of debt). Nothing else matters to them
Because an adjustment to reserves will be a hit to earnings. Will it wipe out a year or more? that's what is unknown right now and is causing anxiety. I think this bottoms when WS thinks the reserve adjustment has been adequately priced into the stock.
Might be dead money until we know how big the reserve adjustment actually is and how it compares to what the market is pricing in. There are about 500M shares so any adjustment that has a "B" in it will be fairly significant.
A silver US quarter will still buy a gallon of gasoline, just like it did in the early 1960's. That's what happens when money can be printed in an unconstrained manner.
And the next 5 year chart will look like the last 5 years, a steady march to zero. The proper way to play this has been discussed a zillion times on this board. If you understand, a 15%, or higher, annual return is quite attainable
When you address a worst case, you see just how low the stock will go. This was actually a gift from mgt.
Usually happens in September. Question is whether the PPS can get to $10.50 or so before they announce.
Sold all of mine at $8.08. Would love to see this around book value again (mid $6's). if they are going to do a secondary, they should do it soon while the market price is still way over book.
The divi won't remain stable, it will be reduced, as scheduled, in October. The only way you can get divi stability is if the market, rises by 20% or so, every year. Hey, you never know but it's a low probability.
Rough calculation, but based on my entry price, collecting 10 dividends and selling at your hypothetical $4.20 price, I would make about 6%. If that's the downside for all my investments, I'll buy the next round.
They have historically traded at a 20% premium. One scenario to get to that premium is the NAV falling and the market price around flat. The key is the action around the R/O time. Personally, if I collect 9 or 10 dividends and sell at a small loss, I am not disappointed. I just restart the game at the time of the next R/O.
I used to think it was my old computer Now I have a nice new Windows 8, 8 gig memory. and Yahoo Finance still gives me trouble. Guess the dumb blond slept through this one too.