Uh, why are you considering a worst case scenario? Worst case scenario is Eteplirsen NDA is not accepted, the company executives embezzled all the money, all the doctors forged the results, SRPT goes out of business, and BMRN takes over the world. Then you move into your Mom's basement.
Seriously, worst case is Eteplirsen is denied, Drisapersen is accepted. But why? People should focus on most likely scenarios, not ultra low probability worst possible case scenarios.
Best case is Drisapersen is voted down at Adcom, Eteplirsen NDA is accepted, AA, breakthrough, and voted unanimously for approval. Sarepta would stand alone.
Because that's where you shorted and it has been killing you? Don't worry, the slaughter of the shorts will resume very soon.
Surprisingly, the biggest moves up in SRPT are yet to come. You will still capture the lion share of the move up.
75% Greece will default
95% Eteplirsen gets approved
98% Eteplirsen gets rejected
- GSK abandoned Drisapersen for good reason
- Drisapersen negative safety information was covered up
- Drisapersen will be voted down by FDA panel based on new safety concerns and undermined trust due to cover up.
Clearly the word got out before the official news release, and that's why we saw the unprecedented short blitz over the weekend. Just goes to show you that the shorts can't stop it even when they know about it ahead of time.
The NDA is a monumental step forward to be sure. The problem with BMRNs filing is that it is based in a failed Phase III study. Less than 4% of NDAs filed based on a Phase III study are approved. Some get a CRL, others are sent back for another P3 study.
SRPT filed based on a successful P3 study and that has a much higher likelihood of success. While nothing is ever a given with the FDA, everything is lining up now for a favorable vote.
The Drisapersen NDA should be filed and accepted so the Adcoms can scrutinize both Drisapersen and Eteplirsen so that all will be laid out for all to see.
The Greek turbulence will provide market gyrations as they always do. Remember when Congress and the President were fighting over the budget? In the end it was much ado about nothing. It is interesting reading though.
Tonight's headlines (from Yahoo Finance home page):
Dow futures were off 298 points, or around 1.7%, while Nasdaq futures were also off 1.7%, or around 79 points.
Dow futures at one point were down as much as 317 points, but near 7:20 pm ET where off 230, or 1.3%.
They are spamming away in a panic. They are about to get crushed.
Sarepta longs, hold on to the rocket as it goes higher!!!
BMRN -- ouch.
I wonder what is about to happen that has them so violently scared?
Why would the EU/EMA do such a thing?
Yes. Standard verbiage from any & all companies that are in the incubation period. Microsoft & Apple did it too back in the early 1980s.
If the negative safety data that was covered up by GSK comes to light.
Otherwise it goes to adcom where it will be voted down.