There is no basis for a short position here other than it used to be lower. It's like betting on a 2-year old that they will shrink back down to their birth size. I watched people short AEGR from $15 to $20 then be forced to cover at $60-$80 on the way to $100. In their defense it did eventually come back down to $20 but by then they were wiped out. Far better to wait for a crystal clear top to be put in than to guess. It's just too risky. Once any stock has dropped 25% from its peak, only then is it safe to assume that was the top. These 10% retrace wants are nothing more than static.
Think about it. If a mere comment from Cramer can send this stock up $2-4/share in a day (prematket even) then it is way too risky.
Wow. Up almost 10% premaket, or in your case, down ... I'm sorry you are already in the red.
Be smart, cover it right now. Otherwise you may be forced to cover at $80 or $100.
And if you held, it would be at $64 today so you would have made a profit I stead of taking a loss.
Thanks for showing everybody that Cramer was right!
Careful - the short jerks will come back with "yeah, turds float", but as long as we keep going up, that's all that matters. Now we need to get back to $65+/share and I'll be happy again.
The flaw in your approach is that the past does not equal the future. It takes 20 years to get ANY drug through trials to finally get it to market, plus, with many really good clinical trials results, it looks promising.
The downside risk of shorting this stock is astronomical because if any of these drugs hit, the stock doubles. There is also a catastrophic situation if there is a buyout, which is looking very promising for any biotech these days given the consolidation.
The downside risk of the long position might be 20% maybe even 30% but the probability of those happening is around 5% (+- 2%). So the implied probability favors the longs considerably.
Here's your chance to educate me, because I didn't know any of their (ISIS) drugs have failed. There were issues with Kynamro but it still is a viable alternative to AEGR's drug, so has a place.
Which of ISIS drugs have failed recently? Because all I've seen is successful candidates in the pipeline, including the most recent extremely good news on their clinical trials.
In my ignorance (and I mean that quite honestly) it looks like ISIS has about 20 really good candidate drugs in the pipeline. If even 1 of them hits, it will validate current valuations or more, if 2 or more hit, this doubles or triples easily.
No, I rode AEGR from $20 to $100 then down to $80 where my stops kicked in.
You are and always have been a hater. Anybody can click on your ID and see what you are all about.
Didn't you short AEGR at $15 and weren't you forced to cover at $65 on a margin call then #$%$ about how it wiped you out financially? Thank God for your Moms basement or you'd be homeless.
With 14.65M shares shorted, as ISIS hits all time new highs, hose shorts will have to cover at a loss. Cover now in the $60s or later at $100. It's their choice.
Interesting that now we seem to have a ceiling price of $14/share...
He is right, VICL does have potential ... Potential to go bankrupt.
Wow. Down 60% in one day. Nobody would go near a stock that is that risky with little to no upside.