I actually don't mind- I've got some shares of meli in my "income" account, rolling long dated ITM calls forward, generating annualized returns almost 5x that of treasuries- and i am willing to take the risk of shares tumbling in short/medium term because long term MELI is still poised to deliver solid long-term growth, even in the face of rising competition (MELI has a decent moat with payments, delivery services, web hosting, first mover advantage, geographical reach, ads and now real estate ugh) and political/currency headwinds. IMO!
shutdown was only a fraction of Q3... CVRR margin and thus distribution depends on the 2-1-1 crackspread and for the QTD as of 12-18-13, the chicago 2-1-1 (WTI) crackspread is essentially same as last Q. And last Q, CVRR had no cash flow available for distribution (the dist was paid from reserves) so I expect a distribution at low end of management forecast (which is 0.04-0.29).
although reuters reported today that the world cup and a late carnival is likely to crimp brazilian growth, by lowering productivity as people are off partying and watching soccer instead of working. If so, disposable income likely will go down possibly leading to reduced consumer spending at places like MELI
I'm still concerned PAGO only grew 34% last Q, by far its lowest quarterly growth rate to date
if meli growth continues to fall, its P/E will likely contract