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Cheniere Energy, Inc. Message Board

yenom_dam 84 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 8:28 PM Member since: Aug 10, 2005
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  • Reply to

    2,356 PE

    by kennyjcal Mar 6, 2014 12:32 AM
    yenom_dam yenom_dam Apr 17, 2014 8:28 PM Flag

    If you are going to rag on a fantastic growth stock, you should at least get the number correct.
    P/E (ttm): 1,510.80

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I AM A BUYER

    by stanley_phelneriv Mar 6, 2014 7:34 PM
    yenom_dam yenom_dam Apr 17, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    I did buy A TON. Bought Oct Options spread of buying the 40's and sold the 45's,. Bought 100 35"s for October that are all green now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2,356 PE

    by kennyjcal Mar 6, 2014 12:32 AM
    yenom_dam yenom_dam Apr 17, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    Today is the day you regretted selling your shares or if you shorted, you just lost a ton over the past 4 sessions. Google per ad click numbers were very good and these guys beat GOOG on price and execution of these ads. You have no idea how to invest in a growth stock in a great space. OF course the PE will be insanely high but people said the same about AMAZON at $2.00 were the were losing money. The stock is headed back to $40 with a bullet and $45 by Oct.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I guess I had to sights too low, I thought we could get to $37 by earnings day but CRTO is getting accumulated and since there WAS a 14% short float, I am sure those SHORTS are covering their butts the last few days. Now I see us getting back to $40 because if that SHORT float gets cut in half, it will create a huge upside rally . $50 by OCTOBER now so those who bought at $45, should be feeling better these days. The resistance was at $37 now the next level is $39.42. GO CRTO!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OWNERSHIP

    by les_pr2002 Apr 15, 2014 9:53 AM
    yenom_dam yenom_dam Apr 17, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    I agree....bottomed at $29 and bounced twice.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If you look at the 90 day trend on EPS, its now at the top end of the estimates. I think we rally into earnings to $34 and pop 5% to 10% on the day if guidance is good. I think people sold their winners to pay for their losers and drove this one way down. It was oversold at $29 and bounced twice. Resistance at $34 so if we can plow through on nice volume, its sets us up for a $37 for earnings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • yenom_dam by yenom_dam Apr 10, 2014 12:18 AM Flag

    I hope this means were back on trend, need to close above 50 day moving average,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The Rubicon Project (RUBI) is another cloud platform for digital advertising. RUBI is positioning itself as the underlying technology platform that these and nearly every other company out there is using to handle the actual automation and "real-time bidding (RTB)" between buyers and sellers of advertising.

    The Rubicon Project has been around for a long time in a few different incarnations. the shares were priced at $15 (LEOR). With 36M shares outstanding post-IPO the market capitalization of RUBI will start out at $540M. Assuming they continue their 45% top line growth it would suggest $120M this year for a 4.5x P/S ratio. The shares did well in the aftermarket with a nice gain to $20/share.

    RUBI joins two other recently-public players in the space, Rocket Fuel (FUEL) and Criteo (CRTO).

    Rocket Fuel come public in August of 2013 at $29. After hitting a high of $71 the shares have pulled back sharply recently (along with many other high-multiple stocks) and now changes hands at $42-43/share. Rocket Fuel has been growing fast (100%/YoY) and looks reasonable on a valuation basis; at a $1.4B TEV the P/S ratio on 2014 estimated revenue of $433M is just over 3x. Analysts are expecting positive EBITDA this year and actual earnings in 2015.

    Criteo completed their IPO in October 2013 at an above-the-range $31 and enjoyed a run to $60 before settling back to $40-41 recently. Criteo has been profitable for years while enjoying similar 100% top-line growth. Analysts are forecasting earnings near $0.50/share on $870M in revenue this year and almost $1.00/share on 1.18B in revenue in 2015. With a TEV of $2B the P/S ratio is 2.3x. Besides being a French company this stock has an actual P/E. Coincidently shares of CRTO dropped several points on the day that RUBI started trading. Insiders recently sold a big chunk of stock at $45.

    Figuring out the relative positioning of these three companies takes some doing but here's our summary of it:

    RUBI can be thought of as the underly

    Sentiment: Buy

  • WOW....WHAT A DAY...Margin Calls all around and people are selling sellling selling and you all shoudl be buying buying. I just put on a two VERTICAL SPREADS. One for May bought the 40 sold the 45 and One for October bought the 45's and sold the 50's.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • A follow-on offering (often but incorrectly called secondary offering) is an issuance of stock subsequent to the company's initial public offering. A follow-on offering can be either of two types (or a mixture of both): dilutive and non-dilutive. A secondary offering is an offering of securities by a shareholder of the company (as opposed to the company itself, which is a primary offering). A follow on offering is preceded by release of prospectus similar to IPO: a Follow-on Public Offer (FPO).

    For example, Google's initial public offering (IPO) included both a primary offering (issuance of Google stock by Google) and a secondary offering (sale of Google stock held by shareholders, including the founders).

    In the case of the dilutive offering, the company's board of directors agrees to increase the share float for the purpose of selling more equity in the company. This new inflow of cash might be used to pay off some debt or used for needed company expansion. When new shares are created and then sold by the company, the number of shares outstanding increases and this causes dilution of earnings on a per share basis. Usually the gain of cash inflow from the sale is strategic and is considered positive for the longer term goals of the company and its shareholders. Some owners of the stock however may not view the event as favorably over a more short term valuation horizon.

    One example of a type of follow-on offering is an at-the-market offering (ATM offering), which is sometimes called a controlled equity distribution. In an ATM offering, exchange-listed companies incrementally sell newly issued shares into the secondary trading market through a designated broker-dealer at prevailing market prices. The issuing company is able to raise capital on an as-needed basis with the option to refrain from offering shares if unsatisfied with the available price on a particular day.

    The non-dilutive type of follow-on offering is when privately held shares are offered for

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cramer, Goldman and FUEL

    by pfflyerkid Mar 31, 2014 12:59 PM
    yenom_dam yenom_dam Apr 5, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Here is the deal. When you buy in to such a high flyer, you really need to buy PUTS to protect your stock. I know you don't want to hear that now but it is the right thing to do. I own GOOG options and sold for a nice 45% profit while by buddy who I told to buy the same options, refused to sell. Now, I am sitting in cash ready to buy back in and he's underwater. All I am saying, is when you are up big in any stock or option and you are feeling giddy, that's the time to buy insurance. DONT SELL your stock and when this stock bottoms around $35, buy some $35 upside CALLS as far out as possible. This will allow you to recover more $$ than just cost averaging in. I know there are doom and gloomers out there saying it could be cut in half to $20 but I don't see it. If you are still afraid of it going down, buy some $35 PUTS short term. If you want to cost average in and own more shares, SELL the $35 PUTS and get a premium. If the stock sells off, you get the shares at $35 less the premium so maybe around $33. IF the stock rallies, you keep the premium and you shares gain value. Just my opinion since you are so far down. Try to protect yourself from further downside and don't be afraid to buy OPTIONS way out because they are much cheaper than before the sell off. THE RSI could be showing us the bottom or more downside. You never know with a falling knife.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • yenom_dam yenom_dam Apr 5, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    CRTO is making money. FUEL is not. CRTO sold privately shares as a FOLLOW ON which means they are NOT dilutive to the shares. Broker will hold on and offer them to clients once the shares go back above $45. CRTO is a steal at $39. Baby with the bath water syndrome.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    2,356 PE

    by kennyjcal Mar 6, 2014 12:32 AM
    yenom_dam yenom_dam Apr 5, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    if you are going to short it, then hold on for some real $$, You could have rode it down to $39. Why so thin? Its a screaming buy now. Go and get some Oct $35's.....cheap....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Did the Secondary Selling Begin?

    by shyamn_n2 Mar 25, 2014 11:03 AM
    yenom_dam yenom_dam Apr 5, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    It is NOT a secondary , it is a follow on. Read Wikepedia and then read the prospectus. This is a private sale and they are not DUMPING the shares on the market. The insiders did this to avoid having to face a major sell off and not secure $45 a share. This is BULLISH. Insiders did this so the broker can get more shares out to the public WITHOUT issuing more shares which is dilutive. These are existing shares sold by insiders to a broker who someday when the shares are back above $45, will offer them to clients at a discount to the market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You all have it very wrong if you think a "secondary offering" and "follow on offering" are the same. A simple "Wikepedia" look up will define it perfectly for you all. In a nutshell, the FOLLOW ON are early shareholders selling their shares to an institution at a set price. In this case $45. At the time of agreement, CRTO was way North of $50 and it may have been near $60. We don't know WHEN they made the agreement. The reason why these insiders did not sell on the open market because it would have caused a major sell off in the stock and they may not even ended up with $45 a share. As you can read from the statement and the prospectus, these shares DID not have any proceeds going to CRTO. In my opinion, this is NOT dilutive to the shares and as I have stated on this board, the underwriters feel that the stock is definitely going higher and will start to offer these shares to their people when the stock goes back above $45 so they can give them out to clients at a discount. These shares are NOT out on the market at all. They are sitting and waiting for the time to offer them out. Because we have had a major sell off in the market and because people have mistaken this private sale as a SECONDARY, people started selling. This is an absolute steal at this level and you can already see that people are already starting to buy back in. This stock was up 2.5% during one of the biggest sell offs of the year. That is a sign of strength not weakness. The EPS number is going up from 6 cents to 9 cents so if the shares were dilutive, the EPS would be going down not up. I studied their balance sheet and every aspect of what you want in a growth stock is there for the liking. They are profitable, EPS is going up, the AD MARKET is its infancy for these new companies and now they are beaten down, I am piling back in . Back up the truck and stay the course. This is the best buying opportunity you are going to get before earnings and when the market recovers, $45 is the base.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The 90 day ago EPS number was .06 and now it is .09. I know it does not look like much but 3 cents when you are projecting 6 cents is a 50% increase. The likelihood of that estimate being low by 3 cents is also high since the analysts have not had much to go on so lets say they hit 12 cents then you could see a 100% increase to the 90 day ago estimates. This stock is going to POP!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    how do secondaries work?

    by vo2_com Mar 21, 2014 1:38 PM
    yenom_dam yenom_dam Apr 4, 2014 12:49 PM Flag

    They had the agreement BEFORE the tumble. At the time of the agreement, the stock was well over $50. Think about it.......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There are good Secondary Offerings and bad Secondary Offerings but most people think they are all bad. First, they priced the secondary at $45 and got it. You see at the time, the stock was trading way too high in the 60's so it appeared that they were getting a discount to the market. Now they are underwater. Now if the buyers did not think it was worth it, they would not have bought it in such massive quantitiy. Critero DID NOT profit from the secondary so I am not sure why they placed such a large amount of shares at $45 and not have a purpose that is easily understood. However, for argument sake lets assume that whomever purchased these shares at $45 has enormous confidence in the company or else the price would have been much lower. The stock is clearly OVERSOLD ever since this secondary. I bought options after the IPO and sold near $50 and made 150% return. I am now buying back in just above what I purchased before and I feel very confident they will once again have great earnings and $45 will come around sooner than later. The first year of an IPO is a rollercoaster so it was very low, too high and now it should stabilize and allow long term investors to relax. I think we hit $41 before earnings and $43 after earings. PT $55 by years end.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I got 2000 at $22.90

    by chndaytrader Apr 4, 2014 12:34 PM
    yenom_dam yenom_dam Apr 4, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    You can get it next week for $20. Smart money left a long time ago and now its a race back down to the 200 day moving average. The stock is still a technical disaster. If you are starting a new position, you better have a strong stomach. I would never start here........I think we hit $20 before it consolidates and goes back up. I don't see it going to $30 like the numbnuts keep positing here. I think it goes down to $20 and ends up at $25 by the end of the year.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Basic math will tell you that for MU to get to $28 or $29 like some have posted, it would need a 20% to 25% move from here. Hedge funds are already all in so if the stock gets to $27, I would sell like hell. The hedge funds who made a ton will be taking their profits soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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