All it shows is the stock is poised to move sharply to the upside on any good news. Once all the risk is out (Phase III results), or someone makes a bid for the company, then we should see a decisive move IMHO.
One might believe Iran will have similar but greater needs for high-grade alfalfa seeds than say Pakistan or Saudi. They soon should be in a position to buy all they want. What is SANW doing to capture a share of that market?
Actually, I have a small stake as well. When they say 'maximizing the value of the Colombian property', it does seem some monetization is afoot. I'd like to see the plan.
The 20-week data seems to be the last hope here.
Glycol prices are not as tied to oil prices as one might think. Only a few players make the stuff. GLYE has been having issues getting it NJ plant up and running using its patent-pending technology... and ironing the bugs out of production. That doesn't seem to be a done deal until later this year. They do expect their margins to rise, but it hasn't happened yet. This stock has been quite the disappointment
Sounds like the CEO only thinks the stock is worth about $4.50. Given that they guided lower in their outlook, and there will be dilution if we go above $5 and the debt gets converted to shares, then that doesn't seem unreasonable. On the other hand if the debt gets repaid without conversion, this dilution risk would be lifted.
This seems to be inline with the CEO selling at $4.57/share. The company thinks their stock is fairly valued at about $4.50 +/-. Goodwill means certain assets were paid for at above book price. Common in acquisitions. It becomes an issue if the annual test fails and future projects for growth are not met. Given the combo of Pioneer and SANW has already resulted in gains above expectations, this isn't a current issue. Depreciation of intangibles will 'hide' profit growth and intangibles are amortized, while providing more available cash on hand. Where are you going with this?
Yes, so as the company pays off the principle amount of this debt, the amount of potential dilution should gradually be reduced. The payments themselves will cut into the net profits beginning 1 July, which should drop the EPS. In any case it is likely a wash. Do you want higher prices or more dilution. I think they cancel each other out to a certain extent so any rise in price is countered by potential dilution minus the gradual drawdown in debentures.
Auditors for a company this size should cost, what? $100,000 - $150,000/yr? How much are they paying for this service? See if you can find a number Avi.
More likely the $30M in equity sold was to get the $18M cash; otherwise, selling equity at these levels wouldn't have made a helluva lot of sense.
I'm assuming we are talking about the former people who 'ran' the company? New people added both on the board and company officers aren't primarily from S&W now are they?
Yeah, see M&A does that for you. I'd like some color on how the sum of the whole is greater than the parts going forward both on the R&D (seed stock improvement) and market share going forward. No cheerleading please.
Avi -- Whoa. You stepped on your Johnson this time. Alfalfa production has to increase as the demand for protein increases in line with a more affluent Indian, Chinese, Arab and other locales' population. The world's fish stocks and aquaculture isn't going to cut it. We aren't all going to eat tofu, rice and beans either. Corn takes a huge amount of water to grow. Soybeans are subject to rust/disease and other issues. Alfalfa has issues too, but you've just told me you haven't done a lick of DD, if you can't make the argument for growth in alfalfa and by extension the largest player with (now) the best R&D and an extensive sales outlet for its product. You're clueless.
Looking through the financials:
- If the price of glycol does not go down
- If the 600+ new customers in the last quarter are only partly represented in last quarter's revenues
- If the situation in NJ that seems to have improved in March stays where it is
- If all the glitches at all the sites are ironed out
Then going into next quarter is it reasonable to think this company may go cash-flow positive in total? Seems everyone is waiting for a definitive resolution to whatever is going on in NJ. Seems to be some hint of an announcement or resolution by the end of the current quarter? That's about all I could glean out of what they released.
So, DD finds that insiders own 30% of stock, you don't like Grover Wickersham due to some of his ill-advised past moves to raise capital. Now we are supposed to believe that after (almost) merging S&W into Pioneer, but rather giving the risk of development to S&W, we are supposed to believe the company is run for the benefit of insiders and to the detriment of other shareholders? No, you don't hold a 30% interest and stay beholden to Pioneer while running the company into the ground. Total BS. More likely you are correct in this way: the insiders that own a 30% stake are maximizing the value of the company. They are likely to sell out in 3 to 5 years as the prospects for the combined company and the Stevia initiative provide more color ... and then the enhanced value of the company gets realized by the insiders and other stockholders.
Roche has a tendency to overplay their hand. They try to get assets dirt cheap, and then fail to up the price sufficiently to close the deal. Illumina is a case in point...
Maybe a secondary offering was priced in on the good news, which one may deduce from their cash position. That would limit any upwards move.