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Manulife Financial Corporation Message Board

yes_free_will 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 10, 2016 7:45 PM Member since: Jul 27, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Share dilution

    by elambrian Jan 29, 2016 11:11 AM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Feb 10, 2016 7:45 PM Flag

    Brian.Book is $3.69/share. So the selling price adds to equity. The debt previously converted at six bucks, but reset to $4.60, where the debt converted to stock at $3.60/share I believe? So, I'll take $4.15. The debt also paid 8%. I believe this deal is a plus.

  • Reply to

    Closing down NJ plant

    by shrimpoordoeus42 Jan 4, 2016 1:21 PM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Jan 20, 2016 8:12 PM Flag

    Shrimp - They had accrued $800K on their books as part of a settlement. I note that they will continue paying for the lease (equipment and site) this year. So let's say ~$65K/mo. Gets you close, no? I don't see how they get their $2M now. My guess is the landlord wants the industrial permit back from the company. I'm not sure what the write-off will be. I'm thinking of all the repairs and redos they did at the site. I lost count frankly. I could imagine an industrial green-field site in Texas where land is cheap, glycol and chemical plants/uses are extensive... If north Jersey was tempting due to the synthetics the N. Texas and the Gulf Coast has an extensive petro-chem biz with not dissimilar needs. I agree a better explanation of how they will go forward with their tech leadership is something for them to address. I'd like to see their cash position significantly improve as a first step. Getting rid of the NJ black cash hole certainly helped.

  • Reply to

    CEO David J. Ide

    by alphachildrenweargrey Nov 25, 2015 3:49 PM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Jan 15, 2016 8:19 PM Flag

    Alpha - He missed his easy chance at $0 for GLYE. We were headed there before he showed. We don't have long to wait. Bring the subject up again when we get 2Q16 results in. You will either be vindicated or will be eating crow.

  • Reply to

    Volume is good

    by wlenaty Jan 14, 2016 10:24 AM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Jan 14, 2016 7:13 PM Flag

    wienaty - look at the reservoirs at SABESP. As they keep going up, so will the stock. They should be in great shape by the end of the rainy season. Over 1/3 full now. Were at 5% two years ago.

  • yes_free_will yes_free_will Jan 12, 2016 5:05 PM Flag

    Tom - You know the funny thing is if they announce a partnering agreement for CLB20 to go with their prospective heart repair candidate they already announced, then the dilution risk going forward is small. The stock should be able to move back to close to 1 buck, if not there. They are spending $6M to expand the clean room, so they obviously are anticipating announcing additional business on the PCT side.

  • Reply to

    This is not bad news.

    by jca408harvard Jan 6, 2016 5:25 PM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Jan 6, 2016 6:38 PM Flag

    Jca -- believe if they announce a partnership for CLBS20, say for example with Roche et al., then tomorrow's meeting would be a plus. This evening's announcement after earlier 'focusing' efforts smacks of desperation.

  • Reply to

    Closing down NJ plant

    by shrimpoordoeus42 Jan 4, 2016 1:21 PM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Jan 5, 2016 9:34 PM Flag

    Shrimp,

    They finally cleaned up the map a bit. NJ is closed and the investment is written off. They stop losing $100K/mo, and the work/customers have been distributed to other centers, thus making them more efficient/profitable. So, a positive for cash flow, and they don't have to pay the other $250K the NJ landlord wanted. However, the investment write-off (be nice to know how much and when) will cut book value and cut any potential profit. That's okay. The investment was probably gone last year, but talking gave them a chance to move the work to other centers, beef up capacity and finish the restructuring. Now, does the book value go from 0.18/share to 0.08/share or lower? It is pretty obvious why they need the capital raise now.
    Some cryptic wording about expansion to Texas (if they win the bid), or else east of the Mississippi south or Midwest (say a corridor form Ala/Miss to Tenn and Indiana/Michigan? Some talk of profitability in 2Q16. It will be a positive to get more patents in place, but I'd settle for positive cash flow and continued top line growth. Getting past NJ is a step forward. Looks like the question now is whether they can get the margins, volumes and sales necessary to get to profitability.

  • Reply to

    Nice to the Reseviors Filling Up

    by optsyeagle Dec 20, 2015 2:48 PM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Jan 2, 2016 9:40 PM Flag

    Effects of the drought aren't over, but the system is up to 30% FULL. Beats the 12 - 5% we've been doing the last few years. Need more... a lot more rain.

  • Reply to

    Company Is full of sh%#!!!!

    by youngsinatra Dec 13, 2015 11:21 AM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Dec 19, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Sinatra. Company is a turn-around story. Make your judgments based on that metric. The old guard were more on the 'pump' side. The Jersey plant has been a millstone: technically, operationally, profitability and capacity-wise. If we knew how that was going to work out, the risk in this stock would be less. The rights offering is obviously meant to reward current shareholders ... and dilute the old guard. That is probably fair, since they seem to have made significant progress in righting the ship. Now, in fairness, we need the price of oil to go to 60-70 bucks a bbl to move this significantly higher.

  • Reply to

    Why so low?

    by tresfelix Dec 2, 2015 1:36 PM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Dec 16, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

    bump

  • Reply to

    Question

    by magilla_s Dec 2, 2015 10:18 AM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Dec 16, 2015 7:26 PM Flag

    Magilla, PEA comes out 1Q16

  • Reply to

    Why so low?

    by tresfelix Dec 2, 2015 1:36 PM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Dec 2, 2015 9:58 PM Flag

    Several factors may be in play: (1) Australian pushback on merger with Recall seems to have spooked some. Probably overdone. Divestments of some assets in Australia seems to be a workable solution; (2) Residual value of metal document containers/racks seems to be an issue for some; (3) Digitization of data with a secular move away from paper storage; (4) Data center growth and future growth drivers vs. secular moves in data storage seems to be an issue as well.

  • Reply to

    Quarterly Results

    by yes_free_will Nov 18, 2015 9:55 AM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Nov 30, 2015 5:41 PM Flag

    How much is NJ costing us a quarter? What combination of events will put it in the black? When is this set of event going to occur, and how certain are we that it will occur?

  • Reply to

    hold and wait

    by adrianthefrog Nov 24, 2015 9:51 AM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Nov 27, 2015 5:08 PM Flag

    Frog - so they aren't going to announce their definitive findings EOM as promised. Instead, they will be bundled in with their submission. Why?

  • Reply to

    Bad Weather

    by yes_free_will Nov 19, 2015 5:27 PM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Nov 25, 2015 8:54 PM Flag

    Bill -- sounds like they are screwed.

  • Reply to

    Wait! What? Twenty-four million shares!?

    by liketheseas Nov 18, 2015 9:19 PM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Nov 20, 2015 6:09 PM Flag

    Did ILMN actually execute any of their share buy-back plan? How much?

  • Reply to

    Is this the bottom?

    by observingthechaos Nov 19, 2015 12:39 PM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Nov 20, 2015 5:26 PM Flag

    Doubt it. If the market goes down, this will go down. Don't have anything to move this needle up. The last quarter was great, but now that management has learned how to handle its cash better ... the low-hanging fruit has been realized. What is going to appreciably move the needle? A deal? Probably sometime next year, if there is to be one on one of their compounds in trials.

  • Reply to

    Quarterly Results

    by yes_free_will Nov 18, 2015 9:55 AM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Nov 19, 2015 6:40 PM Flag

    Jimmy you bring up a good point. The polyester manufacturers seem to be feeding the NJ site mostly with traincars worth of feedstock. That scale and business model seems to be giving this company some major growing pains. My sense is they have put that scale of plant in a temporary holding pattern until they can get their operations straightened out and profitable. Certainly talk of foreign plants has cooled since earlier this year/last year. My sense is the low prices for refined, recovered glycol, and the apparent relative high price for feedstock has put the economics of such a large commitment a harder row to hoe.

  • yes_free_will by yes_free_will Nov 19, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    Note this is an El Nino year. That means flooding rains from Washington to S. CA and inland to the Rockies. It also means profound drought in Australia. This year's El Nino is the worst on record. Anyone care to guess the impact of record drought in Australia and record rains and wind on the USA west coast on alfalfa seed operations of this company?

  • Reply to

    Quarterly Results

    by yes_free_will Nov 18, 2015 9:55 AM
    yes_free_will yes_free_will Nov 19, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    The dilution caused by issuing shares in lieu of cash is down significantly (See 10k). Reduction of head count accounts for some of this, but I do believe their cash flow has improved with the increase in revenues (5 of 7 sites were cash flow positive in a historically weak quarter). The current quarter should be fairly strong, but they have indicated it will not be profitable (versus what Dave Ide suggested last June in his progress update). So yes, the two issues on management's plate that they have a capacity to affect are the debt (and its cost) and the weeping sore called the NJ plant (and its cost). I'm speculating that the equity raise either goes to increasing revenues or reducing cost. These guys seem to be doing a good job driving to break even, so I'm guessing debt reduction is in the bag, since it significantly reduces cost in a very predictive manner. Second priority might be settlement of the NJ mess, if a reasonable solution is within scope. Third priority might be a new business opportunity. I'm guessing a plant in OK/TX as a possibility. I doubt they are going to commit more effort to the NJ plant given the current situation. My guess is excess capacity/unfilled capacity is a current issue there. Again, the last dilution at .32 was supposed to go to the NJ plant, and I doubt that has happened.

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