Doubt it. If the market goes down, this will go down. Don't have anything to move this needle up. The last quarter was great, but now that management has learned how to handle its cash better ... the low-hanging fruit has been realized. What is going to appreciably move the needle? A deal? Probably sometime next year, if there is to be one on one of their compounds in trials.
Jimmy you bring up a good point. The polyester manufacturers seem to be feeding the NJ site mostly with traincars worth of feedstock. That scale and business model seems to be giving this company some major growing pains. My sense is they have put that scale of plant in a temporary holding pattern until they can get their operations straightened out and profitable. Certainly talk of foreign plants has cooled since earlier this year/last year. My sense is the low prices for refined, recovered glycol, and the apparent relative high price for feedstock has put the economics of such a large commitment a harder row to hoe.
Note this is an El Nino year. That means flooding rains from Washington to S. CA and inland to the Rockies. It also means profound drought in Australia. This year's El Nino is the worst on record. Anyone care to guess the impact of record drought in Australia and record rains and wind on the USA west coast on alfalfa seed operations of this company?
The dilution caused by issuing shares in lieu of cash is down significantly (See 10k). Reduction of head count accounts for some of this, but I do believe their cash flow has improved with the increase in revenues (5 of 7 sites were cash flow positive in a historically weak quarter). The current quarter should be fairly strong, but they have indicated it will not be profitable (versus what Dave Ide suggested last June in his progress update). So yes, the two issues on management's plate that they have a capacity to affect are the debt (and its cost) and the weeping sore called the NJ plant (and its cost). I'm speculating that the equity raise either goes to increasing revenues or reducing cost. These guys seem to be doing a good job driving to break even, so I'm guessing debt reduction is in the bag, since it significantly reduces cost in a very predictive manner. Second priority might be settlement of the NJ mess, if a reasonable solution is within scope. Third priority might be a new business opportunity. I'm guessing a plant in OK/TX as a possibility. I doubt they are going to commit more effort to the NJ plant given the current situation. My guess is excess capacity/unfilled capacity is a current issue there. Again, the last dilution at .32 was supposed to go to the NJ plant, and I doubt that has happened.
Tyler seems the final EIS is in and it is positive. Need to wait 30 days for additional comments from all stakeholders before it goes to stone. Meanwhile.. they have signed a contract with the outfit that will build the Magnolia Plant. Restoring 300 acres of wetlands seems to have brought the tree huggers on board, Saalong with the smaller footprint of the plant. Seems like we are on schedule with our project milestones.
Shrimp - true, but at least they didn't spend it all. Given the rights offering notice you found, I was expecting a lot worse. Given they are looking at a 70% rights offering vs. a 100% rights offering, I would submit they have a very particular funding raise in mind. So, something like reducing debt seems a more likely purpose. Maybe also a settlement with the NJ landlord. The landlord and the company aren't still talking because an agreement can't be reached. It seems they are trying to both acquire more feedstock, and cheaper feedstock. Maybe if they can get the NJ facility in production more hours a week, and push through more product, then they will be profitable. Some language in there to suggest such an outcome.
Looks like the lads have done a nice job growing revenue and lower costs. What is somewhat worrisome is that only 5 of 7 processing locations are cash flow positive, but that may be seasonal. By saying the price of mono-glycol is the limiting factor to profitability, it would suggest they cannot take out sufficient cost to get there. They could take out debt payment ... and maybe eliminating the debt is what the rights offering is all about? It may take out cost, while helping take care of that 'going concern' issue in the accounting opinion? Maybe settle with the NJ landlord? Cash on hand is up. Good. So, what is needed is more volume of feedstock at a lower cost rate through the NJ facility and higher commodity (oil) prices.
Mieka - are you referring to the Telix or the El Tejon projects (e.g., Azure Minerals or Big North Graphite)? Seems to be the cheapest mine to restart with existing infrastructure in place, but the large flake graphite may not be of the same quality and yield as the Alaska mine. Big North tried to sell itself to Flinders earlier this year, but it fell through when due-diligence couldn't get needed info from the Mexican government in time... hhhmmnnn.
Brian, fixed costs would include physical plant, machinery and improvements (e.g. storage additions) picked up in the deal. Remember, the deal also includes R&D and seed stock. They didn't indicate the deal would be accretive to earnings in the first year.
Cheer up Wegbox, the circus leaves town Jan 17 with Obozo and the rest of the buffoons heading to Reagan Natl in a tricked out clown car. Maybe then we can get someone serious in place to spur business and investment
"On average, elderly persons (ages 65+) with diabetes have more physiological impairments to healing. However, evidence shows that they should expect the same frequency of healing as younger populations, albeit at a slower rate." -- Hyperbaric and Advanced Wound Healing Center
Interesting stat: the average age of the subjects for the DermaPACE trial was 60.4 years, while the average age for the subjects in the sham portion was 56.2 years.
Shrimp -- I can only surmise that they are close to cash-flow positive, or are there. Recall last Jan in a letter that they were cash-flow positive that quarter, except for NJ. So, let's assume they made cash-flow positive last quarter (but aren't profitable). It would follow that this quarter they MAY be able to pull-off a profitable quarter -- because of customer growth. Don't know, just trying to piece a few bits together. Companies that don't want to dilute their shareholders, but need to raise cash have let existing shareholders double-down or get a better deal by letting them buy shares direct. Banks needing capital have done this instead of diluting shareholders without any options. Getting past all that... the question I think we all want to know is why, and to what end?
Shrimp -- I talked to the CEO a few months ago. He seemed reluctant to go to market with any equity raise, because of the current depressed price of the stock. I would like to know the reason as well... and how the funds will be applied. Having said that... they are cutting costs and reducing overhead, while still expanding the user base. Obviously, we are talking a volume business that is more profitable the more recycle gets done/unit of time. The addition of customers and source of supply is a huge step forward to that end. The question is New Jersey. Does that remain a boat anchor? How does that get resolved/stabilized? I don't see profitability last quarter, but positive cash flow would be a step forward. This quarter seems to be the defining report card for this effort. A profitable quarter would be a major milestone... The question remains: what is the money going to be applied against? I notice they are expanding or wanting to expand in the Midwest, South and Southeast. They already are expanding in the Northeast. What's left? The Southwest isn't being mentioned. So is the equity raise going to buy/build a facility in the Okla/Texas area for instance, or resolve the NJ issue, or both? I just don't know, but the equity raise seemed like a remote possibility earlier this year. What is the compelling reason for doing it now?
Shrimp - I think it depends on one's risk tolerance and investment horizon. My take is this isn't being done to get rid of the 'going concern' language from their accountant's opinion (My take I profitability is what is required to eliminate that language). It may be it is necessary to both settle claims with their New Jersey landlord and maybe to seed an expansion effort in an unserviced area (the US SW or overseas?). So the risk bet is we need to believe they have he NJ landlord issue resolved, or it is substantially manageable. Now on its merits, I wouldn't mind buying a company at 19 cents book value for 8 cents, only IF I felt the risk was worth it. Insiders own 29% of shares (good), and several bought shares on Oct 5 knowing what was coming (better -- but they aren't shelling out a lot of real dollars here), and thus I think most large owners with relatively large positions will not buy their full allotment. Some of the smaller owners may benefit from overallotment. Just my guess.
rpn -- don't feel bad... many sectors of the US economy and the companies that occupy that space would've done much better with an econ-competent Presidency. Reagan's degree was in economics. Obama's was a BS in BS. Cheer up. After hearing Hillary inept, pandering blather about medical price controls and Bernie the Socialist's rants, we can always do worse ... and the actors on stage now are a joke.
Purple -- Vitamin D is a fat-soluble vitamin, which means too much will flat-out kill you. So, polar bear liver is absolutely deadly in incredibly small amounts precisely because it is loaded with Vitamin D