Quote from Ben Levisohn at Barron’s. Too bad they're in the business of making gasoline from crude oil. We could be billionaires if they made lemonade instead.
Look at all the oil services stocks, all up big today. Take BAS as an example of another low-float stock, up 12.6% today. Nothing special here.
There must be a reason. The market typically does not misprice a Fortune 10 company's stock for as long as has been the case with VLO.
So did you sell when you posted the MACD went negative on April 2 or ignore the writing on the wall like so many of us holding out for $65?
$52B based on the premium Shell is paying for British Gas, without consideration for the difference in asset quality. That translates to $138 per share, so it's probably too high. $38B - 42B, or $100 - $110 per share, may be a more realistic valuation, but nobody will offer that amount in cash for Apache's assets. Maybe a prospective acquirer could offer equally undervalued stock, but Apache's BOD may not accept.
Add another $2B from Australian operations. Debt should be reduced to $6B by September if the company does not squander the proceeds. Not much left of this outfit's international and deepwater operations that attracted me in the first place.
Goldman Sachs says the crude glut is going to turn into a product supply glut. Even in the face of rising demand? Don't fall in love with any refiners if the Giant Squid is betting against them..
Despite public statements that proceeds would be used to pay down debt? Now that APA has scaled back their drilling program, let's see what they do with the ~ $3B proceeds from the Wheatstone and Kitimat deals.
Some of us have been thinking of VLO as a value play for years, but it seems to offer a lot of value and not much play.
Looks like your chart, tarot cards, ouija board, or whatever you use is broken.
TSO management was better able to capitalize on domestic crude discounts of the past few years, because their refineries can run WTI. VLO's complex refineries, designed for another time, can't blend as high a percentage of WTI. That doesn't mean VLO has not been capitalizing on other crude discounts, but institutional investors (i.e., hedge funds) have been too busy fawning over TSO to notice.
TSO also has been going gangbusters to diversify their revenue stream, primarily via logistics and marketing, which the institutional investors also appreciate. Both companies have a high percentage of institutional investors, but TSO more so.
I see you turning conventional wisdom on its ear. Buy high, sell low? Buy the rips and sell the dips? Soon, you will have no money left to invest.