We got you, enjoy your flight.
Please wait until next Wednesday to see if I am right or wrong, be patient short.
Here is why:
1. Balance sheet, $5 - $6 cash per share after receiving $90M 2014 BTC and $8 cash per share if 2015 BTC is passed this year, book value is right now at $16 and it will be $18 - $20 by the end of this year.
2. 2015 EPS will be about $2 - $3 with 2014 BTC and $3 - $5 with 2015 BTC, P/E will be only 5 - 8 with $16 - $20 stock price.
3. Growth potential, the company has doubled its revenue since IPO and with two new acquisitions SYNM and LS9, nobody knows how big it's potential is right now but we will see this year.
4. Institutions had increased their holding on REGI from a few millions shares to now 32M shares for the past two years, the demand of the stock price is high(4.5M shares still shorted) and the company recently announced $30M stock buyback(could buyback 3M - 4M shares) which could reduce the float by 10% at current price and will create more demand on the stock price. If you look at the stock price for the past two years, the cost of most of the institutions are between $10 - $15. It's called accumulation stage. Right now the institutions are holding 120%(32M) of the float(27M), thanks to the 4.5M shorts giving longs cheap stakes.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I never do short.
What I see here is the institutions have been accumulating their positions since two years ago from a million shares now to 32M shares in total while the stock price has not gained much(still lower than IPO price $10).
What do you think they are doing here with their funds?
I say they are waiting for a decent return which could be 100% or 200% or even more from long-term point of view.
In order to maximum their profit, they also sell covered calls and do shorting to put the stock price low so they could buy even more shares and that's they have been doing for the past 2 years.
The management is just trying to release a signal to the market that REGI stock is undervalued. That's good enough to trigger a short covering or even short squeeze around the Q1 report next week.
They don't necessarily have to buy even one single share.
Sentiment: Strong Buy