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The Madison Square Garden Company Message Board

yinvestor 2385 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 27, 2014 7:59 AM Member since: Oct 5, 2011
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  • yinvestor yinvestor Dec 27, 2014 7:59 AM Flag

    My recommendation for REGI management is not to invest too much and too radical(like the recent Europe investment) until BTC is permanent.

    High cash level and high book value will be crucial for the stock price and to attract more investors before BTC is permanent.

    Try to increase the shareholder value by spending carefully and turn the two major investments - SYNM and LS9 from last year into another two cash cows instead of cash burners this year.

    I would feel a little bit shamed of myself if I were the management of REGI since REGI is still trading at its IPO price 3 years ago with so many government support.

    Most investors especially institutions investors are still under water and none of them had made any profit from the growth of REGI.

    2015 is the year to see REGI stock trading above $15 steadily to stop any question of REGI from the investors and shorts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • yinvestor yinvestor Dec 27, 2014 7:48 AM Flag

    Not to mention the growth potential that REGI has. Clean energy is the future of US and the world.
    REGI has been increasing its production for the past few years from $200M to $350M in the future.

    REGI also spent about $100M last year to acquire SYNM and LS9, both investments have great growth potential but have not shown any income or profit in REGI report yet but it will starting 2015 Q1!

    Estimated EPS for REGI in 2014 is about $0.50 - $0.60.
    But estimated EPS for REGI in 2015 and 2016 is about $3 - $4 each year!
    P/E is only 3! Trading near cash level and 50% of its book value right now.

    It's a little pity that the BTC policy is not permanent to fully support the renewable energy industry and that's one of the major reason this stock is trading so low with uncertainty of BTC but the management had shown their ability to grow the company and make profit even without BTC so REGI would be a great long-term investment and that's why the institutions have been adding positions significantly for the past year from 20M to 32M! This will be a $15 - $20 stock in 2015 in my opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I had been holding REGI for two years now.
    Bought at $6 - $7, sold at $15 - $16, then bought it back around $10.
    This is a strong no-brainer buy under $10!

    Now REGI has cash $133M or $3.14 per share, book value $16 (42M total shares, more than 100% hold by institution or long-term holders, near 6M shares shorted to put the stock price low - 60% of book value, lower than IPO price $10 three years ago).

    By shorting this stock, the institutions are hoping to get more shares from other institutions or small investors.
    The institutions(not including the initial investors since IPO) are now holding near 32M shares, the average cost of these 32M are between $10 - $12(by selling puts, some of them had lowered their cost by $1 or $2 but not much).

    BTC has been reinstated for 2014 so REGI will for sure get around $90M cash this year.
    $90M cash income will increase REGI 2014 EPS to about $3 per share thus the current P/E is only 3.
    $90 will increase REGI cash from $130M to $250M level(adding $30M from operating).
    $250M / 42M = $6 per share cash! Book value will be increased from $16 to $19!

    By the end of 2015, BTC will most likely be extended or reinstated again.
    There is also a chance that BTC will be permanent so it won't require political review and extension every year or two years, this would be a extremely great news for REG which will for sure push the stock price immediately to $20 - $30 but don't count on it for now. Let's keep walking on the earth now.
    So if the BTC is extended again by the end of 2015(90% chance), this would mean another $100M - $125M cash for REGI due to the increase production and production from the new subdivision SYNM.
    So this $120M will increase REGI cash from $250M to $375M.
    $375M / 42M = $9 cash per share, book value will be increased from $19 - $22!
    REGI is now trading at under $10, that's 50% of its book value and near its cash level.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    600M and $15 per share cash for REGI - 2 years BTC

    by yinvestor Dec 17, 2014 12:14 PM
    yinvestor yinvestor Dec 23, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    Will the BTC be permanent? Maybe, who knows.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    REGI TV BioD Economics

    by jim6b Dec 17, 2014 6:56 PM
    yinvestor yinvestor Dec 18, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    Great video! Thanks!
    If you could give your opinion after viewing the video that would be appreciated.

  • Reply to

    REGI TV BioD Economics

    by jim6b Dec 17, 2014 6:56 PM
    yinvestor yinvestor Dec 18, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    You are making things more complicated.
    Try to sum up your points in one or two sentences?

  • Reply to

    Message to Self..

    by jeff_har52 Dec 17, 2014 4:19 PM
    yinvestor yinvestor Dec 17, 2014 5:45 PM Flag

    This message is to yourself only. LOL
    You should post to your own website if this message is only for yourself since this is a public message board.

    Also you "should" tell yourself never short a stock when the price is much lower than its cash level(or future cash level) and 50% under book value and under IPO price. LOL

    Warren Buffette told you to buy when a stock is selling way under its property value but you only learnt shorting. LOL

  • Thanks for the Christmas gift - BTC pass! :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It Passed Yet... Well basically nothing

    by rstockfollower Dec 17, 2014 1:48 PM
    yinvestor yinvestor Dec 17, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    It won't be fully priced in until at $15.

  • Reply to

    It Passed Yet... Well basically nothing

    by rstockfollower Dec 17, 2014 1:48 PM
    yinvestor yinvestor Dec 17, 2014 2:13 PM Flag

    It requires extreme patienct to become a good investor otherwise everybody could become Warren Buffette.
    I learnt my lesson from Yahoo.

    I predicted that Yahoo would hit $40 or $50 when it was at $12 a few years earlier before it did.
    Then I sold it at $20 right before it took off.

    REGI will be a $30 stock in just one or two years.
    Hold it if you are patient enough or sell it now if you are not.

    I had been in REGI starting at $6 - $7.
    Now REGI is extremely undervalued trading under IPO price $10 despite of its assets and cash had trippled than a few years ago. I have seen this kind of story over and over again that Mr. Market is alway blind.
    Short-term quick profit is always driving the money to the wrong direction where it should go and that's
    why the winners in this market is always the minority.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The market is underestimating the cash that REGI could get from the pass of BTC.
    2012 and 2013 BTC had increased the cash of REGI to $150M despite of the fact that REGI spent at least $200M on capital expenditures.

    Now with much higher production in 2014 and 2015 as well as the aquisition of SYNM.
    REGI should be able to get much more cash than 2012 and 2013.

    600M = $15 cash per share?
    I know my estimation might be a little bit higher but it's at least much closer than the other estimation posted on
    market plus by the other guy which is $80M only? I think he is a short gun! LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It will have $10 cash per share after receiving BTC.
    Shorts will have to cover.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • yinvestor by yinvestor Dec 9, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    BTC will pass.
    REGI will be cash rich($300M - $400M).

    Traders are in.
    Shorts are covering.
    Institutions are adding positions.
    Individual investors are waiting.

  • Institutional holding - 30.76M shares so far

  • Reply to

    Look at the volume!

    by yinvestor Nov 21, 2014 1:40 PM
    yinvestor yinvestor Nov 21, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    One year long waited breakout finally will come. :)
    The box between $10 - $12 will be broken IMO.

    This is just way too undervalued due to price manipulation.
    Most of the institutions are under water.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • yinvestor by yinvestor Nov 21, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    It's seems like somebody knows about something is coming soon.
    I would expect some quick rise to above $12.50 or even breakout of $12.50 in the next few weeks.
    IMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • They are trying to keep the stock price down to collect more cheap stakes for more gains in the future.

    This is still trading near IPO price $10. It should be a $20 stock after BTC is extended.
    So cheap!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • yinvestor yinvestor Nov 20, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    This news along without the BTC extension should trigger the run to $12 IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • SYNM is definitely a bargain for REGI and clearly REGI is targeting the BTC and that's why they have started the plant as soon as possible.

    Geismar Plant Grand Opening is a great news which the market has not yet given any credit to the management.

    I just don't really understand why REGI spent so much money on LS9.
    I don't think anyone here would have any insight about LS9 acquisition.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BRING ON THE EXTENDERS!!!

    by rstockfollower Nov 19, 2014 11:18 AM
    yinvestor yinvestor Nov 20, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    It's a done deal IMO.
    Shorts are just trying to play the uncertainty game.

MSG
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