Whoops.. loser. Down 2% pre-market. It's going to $10 today if you're not careful.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Just like all the biotech stocks tend to do it's running up prior to 3PM so the big hedge funds can get their short orders in and then it will likely sell off around 3:45. Tomorrow should be down 20% given the big run up today.
Have you been drinking the cool-aid this afternoon... I'd be happy to see it run to $37 and close at $30 to be honest.
Don't disagree. Made a boat load of $$ this AM on this stock, now wondering if I should go back in as a short this aftermoon or tomorrow morning. What's your best guess at where it will top out today or tomorrow?
Lots of recent news about this company. Up a tremendous amount in the last 7 days on all this positive yet a long way from an NDA news. Buy now, short now, wait and buy on dip... what's the take (and not the idoitic perspective but the investor side of things)
It seems there is some bit of misunderstanding exactly what these results say and don't say. I'm confused more now than before. How can a 36 month Phase 2/3 trial have pre-determined data releases at 18 months?
If this is a completely open label, unblinded study how can or can that be used to submit it to the FDA?
When they state "positive trend" that is or isn't a statistically significant result? What is the primary endpoint of the trial, is it TMS in all patients (PP) or is it RP103 vs. untreated patients? My last question is (and this was posted earlier by another person) why can't I find this on ClinicalTrials.gov? Any company that I've looked into buying stock in the past that is in the biotechnology sector put studies at that website. The company looks like they're on to something or trying to find a home for the MOA, just wondered if this is a premature pump and dump that's driving their stock price up or is it a good buy.
I'm hopeful that we do see some positive upward motion in this stock. Looking at the options it might be another 30-45 days before it really begins to climb towards $15-$18. Lots of April options being purchased
on the Call side at $14 for +$4.00. Should be a nice run up as they get closer to releasing Phase III results.
Question is to hold through the release of data or sell on the run-up to that release. Always the question in
the biotech sector.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Gotta love the little train that could. From all that's been published and how they typically have performed, it's highly likely they'll report incredible growth and provide strong estimates for 2014-2015. Wouldn't be surprised to see it run into the low $8's.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Be careful all you longs. This is what's called a share grab. MM and Hedge Funds working together to gobble up your shares at the lowest price possible, totally based on spreading fear in the market. Would not be at all surprised to see this equity close down today by no more than $.05. Possibly even close up. They're looking to rob you of your shares by driving the price down by the buy, sell, buy, sell tactic of trading the same block of stocks over and over. Should be outlawed by the SEC, but such is capitalism. Just look at the volume and the size of the trades being made. Almost too perfect to be real how it plays out over the first 90 minutes. That's because it's a computer program that is creating this. In the end all will end positive if you stick to holding a company like this that has a good business model and positive future. Do feel sorry for those who bought
into the Secondary at $12.75, but as others have said, the big firms didn't pay sticker price for what they purchased.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
So explain to me (since I'm honestly confused) what exactly is the business model here, potential future P/E and why is it up 25% since my initial purchases not more than 30 days ago. If only you could buy more shares of this puppy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Something doesn't look right about this. Down below $17.00 yesterday, very low volume today but up? Then 10% of today volume being traded after hours. Either someone is buying early on positive news coming tomorrow AM, someone is shorting or cover a short, someone is selling a lot and taking profits off the table.
Thoughts. Some have suggested the annoucement of a secondary prior to the earning report, then discuss that on the call and let everyone know all if fine, just needed to advance the Phase III program.
Okay... putting all our differences aside and banking on the fact that we all want to make some $$ off NBIX, I've been struggling with how best to play this stock in the near term (3-6 months). Longterm this company is likely to perform well with some bumps along the way, but that's normal for biotech.
Question is at $19.50, up over 100% in the last 10 days, does this still have a run upward left or is it going to see profit taking and shorts begin to push the price down? Up 5-10%, down 5-10% ???
I'm usually pretty good at predicting how these erradic biotech animals will behave, but NBIX is a lot more complex than some and the stock price isn't some cheapo $3-5 / share one.
Agree. Go with the DD and research you've accumulated over the past months, not because some poster who is a short named againdeny or panelvote is writing some unwarrented BS on this board. Look at the evidence, read the material and decide. The folks at CHTP are NOT throwing in the towel. They'll come ready to defend their NDA. The details are so numerous and outside our knowledgebase you simply can't believe. Some on the committee might not admit it but they've already decided either no or yes. But then there are many others who want a full review and to hear and see the show. If they're on the fence they vote yes because they know that another date and panel is upstream to protect their interests. If the panel isn't sure but wants more eyes on this sponsor application they vote yes.
This isn't a binary event unless CHTP wants to make it one. They'd be smart (and I'm sure they are) to get a positive vote based on what they can given the data and panel's views. Short term use, restricted to a specific population, monitoring, REMs program and then the longterm study data to revisit any changes. This is an Orphan Drug NDA, 80,000 patients. Very controlled use of the product (it's not going to be in the hands of the FP community). Benefit / Risk ratio might not be too bad, unmet need and a specialized prescriber helps them if they play their cards right. Hopefully they realize this and don't ask for more than the data will provide.
Interesting how againdeny and paneldoubt and others are brand new to Yahoo Finance just in time to scare people into selling so they can make a bit of cash on a short sale to pay for a cold beer tonight. Stick to your research, gut or whatever you do when things start to get tough. Lots of moving parts going on between the meeting tomorrow and then on Feb 14th. FDA has been around long enough to know what's best for the patients and providers. If I had a even venture a guess for tomorrow, I'd say a similar vote to last time and
then they send it up the chain for a full review on Feb 14th. Something to consider when thinking about all
this is how much back and forth goes on between the agency and the sponsor. Quite a bit in fact. That large, expensive longterm outcomes and durability and safety study that just started was NOT just the idea of CHTP. Lots of discussion with the agency as to how best to conduct the study, endpoints, enrollment, etc was hashed out before CHTP invested a penny into that study. It's still uncertain what will happen tomorrow, but FDA isn't trying to screw over sponsors, their role is safety + efficacy. They're always willing to guide and advise a sponsor on an application, but it comes with no pre-determined votes. With all these shares traded it wouldn't seen as if they're daytradders or shorts covering, it's buyers - hedging their bet that tomorrow will be positive, the stock with run up before Feb 14th, and then this whole games begins again.
Tincture of time... that's all it takes. A a bit of water and watch it wilt. This guy who short @ $15.00 needs to just wait. Stocks go up and they go down. Nature of the beast. It will be back down at $14, then back up to $20, then back down to $16 before all is said and done.
MMs are loading up on stock - regardless of the outcome tomorrow, they want to make sure that come Wednesday AM they have plenty of stock on hand to trade that day. Will close where it opened the day.
Then it's just a wait and see game. Probably most of this AM is buying at a low price and rolling the dice.
At these lows it's crazy not to buy and just take your chances.