Their half year report says they are working on an encapsulation material that has been qualified at one OLED lighting company and one photovoltaic company. Other materials are used in photo resist manufacturing which is used for LTPS and IGZO backplanes.
Now that its year end we can look at OLED 2014 valuation.
past 3 yr rev growth 35%
2014 rev growth 35%
PE 26 ($33 on $1.27 earnings)
No debt, $5 per share cash
PE net of cash 22
2013 EPS growth 133 percent
2014 EPS growth 150 percent
We think the engine starting business could ultimately drive a several-fold increase in the size of MXWL’s addressable market and the sheer size of this opportunity gives MXWL ‘multi-bagger’ potential (in our view). However, we think it will be at least a year before this market begins contributing materially to sales. In the meantime, the uncertain fate of China’s hybrid bus subsidy leaves MXWL exposed to a potentially major decline in revenue next year. Happily, plugin hybrid applications appear to be growing faster than we originally thought, which should help limit downside in 2014. We are nudging our price target higher (from $8 to $8.50) and introducing 2015 estimates that imply a return to sales growth.,” the firm’s analyst commented.
"Dr. Kinam Kim, Chief Executive Officer of Samsung Display gave a presentation earlier this morning at the Nomura Investment Forum in Tokyo, Japan."
I wasn't at this conference but you can see the speakers and companies presenting. Google "nomura investment forums", select the first link "Corporate Access - Nomura", then select the top link for 2-6 Dec 2013, "Nomura Investment Forum". Check out the Agenda, Guest Speakers, Presenting Companies. Samsung c and t (a construction company) and Samsung Electronics presented. Nowhere on the agenda is Samsung Display or any mention of Dr. Kim.
Yutong put out a press release yesterday regarding a visit by the Minister of Science and Technology. In a separate report at a recent bus show Yutong noted that the ZK6141BEV1 "bus can run for 300 km with 8-10 min recharging, so that the power can support one-day operation". Though bus revenue will, as expected, likely be down considerably this quarter with recharging speed being important it doesn't seem like the bus revenue will be completely phased out. Here's a clip from the Yutong press release, note the SuperCap reference.
At the final assembly workshop No. 3, Wan boarded several new energy buses like ZK6141BEV1 and ZK6120CHEVNPG3, and asked about the information of vehicle mileage, overall power performance of vehicles, energy-saving rate, core technology and so on. In addition, Wan also inspected the key technical equipments of SuperCap and whole vehicle control.
Thanks, I agree it is complex and we don't have all the details but we can make some reasonable estimates. Yes, at current market cap an acquirer could use $10M annually though an acquisition would probably be at some premium to current market cap. We do know from the 10K the federal NOLs don't start expiring until 2020 and we know they had losses up until last year. So the range of time for the NOLs to expire would be greater than 7 and most likely up to 18 years. They would need 15 or so years to use all of the NOLs so its likely an acquirer would be able to use nearly all of them. Whether they can use the last 10 million in year 15 doesn't make much difference to the present value. I haven't looked at California laws but its not necessarily the case that the federal laws apply to the state and with the California tax rate being 8.8% it's not as important. I'm not a tax accountant and I agree that on the GAAP accounting in the public filing the effective tax rate will be used. However, on a cash basis (the actual tax forms) I don't see why it wouldn't apply to the marginal tax rate? Regardless, the range of possible present value calculations for the federal NOL would be around $25M (at 20%) and 40M (at 35%). Still substantial compared to the market cap. And there are the Califronia NOLs and other tax credits.
Not really trying to change your conviction just doin dd. Happy Thanksgiving.
Does a change of control really blow up the NOL value or does it just stretch out the term over which they can be used in which case it still has a significant value. Between the $152 million federal NOL, 85 million California state NOL, 10 million research tax credit and 41 million net cash that could account for half the current market cap not even counting the ongoing business.
Atmel Corp. (NASDAQ:ATML)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reaffirmed by research analysts at Needham & Company in a report released on Wednesday, American Banking & Market News reports. They currently have a $10.00 price target on the stock. Needham & Company’s target price would suggest a potential upside of 32.80% from the company’s current price.
The analysts wrote, “Following XSense’s recent Windows 8 certification, ATML yesterday acknowledged that HPs new Omni 10 tablet features both its touch controller as well as XSense. While we have been bullish on XSense given its various use cases from the beginning, we believe this should accelerate XSense adoption. We continue to expect a production ramp of XSense-enabled devices over the next 1 to 2 quarters and think ATML can fetch $10-15 for the xSense sensors and $2-3 for the touch controller. While volumes of the Omni 10 are likely to be insignificant in the near term, we are encouraged by this announcement, and are maintaining our Buy rating and $10 price target.”
Why did he keep the green multiple factor a secret?
It may be they didn't know what it would be more than they were keeping it secret. The key to it may be in doping concentrations. We all know Samsung uses less red per area now than they did originally. So how much of that was due to more efficient production (less waste in the vacuum chamber) and how much due to decreasing the doping concentration? I doubt UDC even now knows the answer to that but they probably have a better idea. You can find charts online which show various performance parameters such as luminous yield and current density as a function of doping concentration. [such as google books: Organic Electronics: Materials, Processing, Devices and Applications] It seems like their is more variability in red doping concentration than for other colors. They show red with doping concentrations from 0.5% to 10% while they discuss green of 6% to 10%. If, for example, Samsung started with 4% red back in 2011 when they first tried green and went to 1% red now with green constant then previously the ratio would have been close to 1:1 but now it would be closer to 4:1. That would also help explain red material sales. It seems like there isn't the option to do that with green and blue without impacting performance.
He also said he wouldn't pick 2017 as an end date for new contracts so maybe they can get an LG contract to extend beyond that.
I might be reading too much into it but he brought up blue a couple times. He said "when we sell blue it will also be higher volumes". Brian Lee never followed up on it though.
There is a lot of rounding in these numbers as just the 1% rounding on $30 million could be plus or minus $0.3 million. With that, interesting that you computed host sales = $11.51 million this quarter vs company B sales is 34% of $38.2 million sales = $11.15 million (0.36 million less). It may be that some host material doesn't go through Nippon, such as to LG or others.
I'm not sure there is enough info to accurately determine Japan non-Nippon sales quarterly going back very far. Company B just represents the second largest company with greater than 10% of sales. Some quarters there isn't one, some quarters it is Nippon but it may also be LG. All I can really say is it seems to vary between $1-2 million. Based on company B data it was $2 million this quarter.
The country breakdown includes South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, U.S., and Other. The Taiwan and Other categories might show new emerging trends in the next few quarters.
#2 (company B) is Nippon Steel. UDC sells green host material to Nippon who mixes it with their host material and resells it to Samsung. AUO is in Taiwan who upped their purchases this quarter to $450k from previous levels of $50-150k per quarter. AUO didn't start their line until the end of q3 or even start of q4.
The Japan question is who besides Nippon is buying their materials? They've been selling about $1.5 million per quarter to Japan outside of Nippon for a while. Japan has a number of OLED lighting companies, Sony, Panasonic, Japan Display, Pioneer. Pioneer has been using UDC material in PMOLED products for a while but I think not anywhere near that level.
From schaeffersresearch: Plus, a round of price-target hikes from the likes of Piper Jaffray and Canaccord Genuity has added to the stock's momentum, and, at last check, OLED was up 24.3% to trade at $36.20.
Duksan is not a good indicator. They have been losing market share in ETL/HTL materials to Cheil. They also did not sell UDC green host in q2. They should do so in q3.
October 29 - Crosspoint Kinetics says it’s completed the installation of 43 of its second-generation electric hybrid systems on buses operated by Madison County Transit of Granite City, Ill.
The hybrid system improves acceleration performance, lowers fuel consumption, and reduces emissions. They were purchased through a contract awarded to Southern Bus and Mobility (Breese, Ill.) and were installed into new Turtle Top (New Paris, Ind.) Odyssey buses, Crosspoint Kinetics says.
The Kinetics’ Hybrid Power System:
Is design verified and validated
Has completed rigorous system-life testing
Requires minimal integration
Can be utilized with diesel, gas, CNG or propane
Reduces emissions by as much as 35 percent
Uses capacitors – no batteries needed; capacitors guaranteed for 1 million cycles
Increases fuel mileage by up to 30 percent
Extends brake life up to 8 times
Is installed and serviced by Cummins Crosspoint
Is government compliant & FTA approved
Crosspoint Kinetics S3000 Hybrid
The S3000 includes ultracapacitors by San Diego’s Maxwell Technologies, motor manufactured by Nidec in its Princeton, Ind. (Hurst Motors) facility, and control computer and inverter from ZBB Energy of Menomenee Falls, Wisc.
Crosspoint Kinetics says it’s working directly with key OEM bus and chassis manufacturers to ensure quality installations.
“We have successfully completed system-life, performance, reliability, and FTA/Altoona testing,” McNichols said. “We are confident our second-generation hybrid will perform and bring many benefits to the communities where they operate.”
The S3000 drive is in limited production now [October 1], with full production expected to commence during this fourth quarter of 2013.
“We have addressed many of the problems with first-generation hybrids, such as expensive batteries, less-than-satisfactory reliability, and complex integration into a vehicle,” Crosspoint Kinetics product director John McNichols says in a release. The unit is easy to install and remove, the company says, is compatible with gasoline, diesel, propane, and compressed natural gas engines, can be installed in new and used vehicles, and “even transferred from one vehicle to another.”
Saving fuel, reducing emissions and increasing brake life is what the Kinetics’ hybrid is all about. It also happens to be the most affordable hybrid power system on the market, and it’s a real workhorse. It automatically adds torque ahead of the engine to boost acceleration, and then conserves energy normally lost in the braking process. It’s also more than 500 lbs. lighter than many alternative systems because instead of batteries, it uses ultra-capacitors to store energy.
Kinetics has worked with several of the top bus manufacturers to integrate its hybrid into their specific chassis models. The hybrid system is listed on many state purchasing contracts as an option for alternative fuel systems.
Wedbush upgraded Atmel (NASDAQ: ATML) from to Outperform with a price target of $9.00 (from $7.00). Analyst Betsy Van Hees believes the company has its "house back in order."
"We believe with (1) DOI back to target model, (2) core MCU showing remarkable resiliency in a tough market, (3) pro forma GM expansion set to accelerate in 2014, and (4) expectations sensibly reset for XSense to provide meaningful revenue contributions in 2014 that Atmel's house is back in order and the headwinds that hampered the stock in 2013 will likely be tailwinds in 2014," said Van Hees.
"We upgrade Atmel to an OUTPERFORM rating (from NEUTRAL), increase our PT to $9 (from $7), and recommend investors take advantage of the recent pullback to buy shares. Our new 12-month PT of $9 (from $7) is based upon about 14x our 2014 pro forma EPS estimate of $0.60 (from $0.50) plus $0.63 (from $0.53) of cash per share," added the analyst.