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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

youcanpickum 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 1, 2014 11:51 AM Member since: May 29, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Prive to adjusted book value

    by youcanpickum Oct 1, 2014 10:48 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Oct 1, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    I am simply taking a guesstimate of slightly lower NAV for both as well as any other adjustments that could be out there during the cleanup phase before reorg. If there are none, then the price is 69% of book. Several other funds such as SLRC, SUNS, ACSF and others with a portfolio of Senior Secured Debt are now trading down as well, but only about 15% below book, though they pay cash dividends. All are interesting values here since they will see rising income if rates go up (though muted by higher borrowing costs).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Oct 1, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    At 13.96, we are at 71.5% of a lower book value of 19.5 adjusting for potential drop in AGNC, MTGE assets etc. Really?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Sep 24, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    1.1 Billion with 39 limited partners

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    New stock offering announced

    by male_us_30_california Sep 23, 2014 5:26 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Sep 23, 2014 6:29 PM Flag

    This will raise money to buy more platforms from SDRL at higher than market prices helping SDRL raise cash indirectly and screwing SDLP holders by over paying for assets that will renew contracts at lower prices in the near future.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to


    by sage533 Sep 2, 2014 9:24 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Sep 2, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    CCIT holders basically get cashed out at par. With SIR at 27.37, the .36 shares is equal to 9.49. Figuring the exchange and cash portion the only winner here is the manager who has collected fees upfront and backend as well as for the holding period. With SNH and SIR do any better? I doubt it!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Aug 27, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    One of the scenarios I have not seen here is a going private tranaction. I would not be surprised to seen a transaction in which management combined with a private equity firms offers to go private at NAV or slightly below after deducting expenses. Goldman would be useful for this. Thoughts anyone?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    KMI- Will ATLS be next?

    by legalbark Aug 10, 2014 7:01 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Aug 10, 2014 11:23 PM Flag

    This is what happens when I go out to dinner with my wife: someone comes along and steals my thought and posts it. Perhaps not a rollup, but a buyout by another mlp to consolidate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Aug 9, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    What bothers me is that management fees and other expenses have not dropped even though, clearly they are dismantling the one stop business and parking huge amounts of cash in bonds. Where is the drop in overhead and fees? Sure, they will eventually split this thing up when they can find a way to profit for themselves from further inflated fees from numerous entities instead of one. In the meanwhile, why not cut back on unneeded staff in the areas where they are doing almost no deals like the one stop buyout business?

  • Reply to

    book value discount

    by mm5002003 Aug 7, 2014 1:36 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Aug 7, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    The $64000 question is how to value ACAM as a money manager standalone. What would be the appropriate multiple. From that we could derive a valuation on that portion of the company apart from the investment assets which I would continue to value at a discount to NAV.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Impressive lift in NAV

    by foxhsmart Aug 6, 2014 9:46 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Aug 7, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    I lightened up today. Closed my Aug 15 puts position and sold shares in my IRA. This run up in NAV is simply a reversal of ACAM valuation due to short term rise in NAV at MTGE and AGNC. If rates move up at all we will see the see saw movement downward in ACAM as AGNC and MTGE book values once again drop. I am more concerned about the very low NOI and the "complexity" read "costs" of this transition and 6 month to one year of underinvestment looking forward. I don't feel any urgency to own this. Many BDCs with a senior secured model in place are trading at 10 to 15% discounts to NAV. So upside is more muted now than it might have been six months ago. Still long my oldest shares, but not as excited. Will reconsider more if we sell down to the mid 14s again as I expect we will.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Aug 5, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    Just listened to SLRC conference. 8 to 9% on new senior secured loans, expecting low double digit returns over life of loan with just over 10% leveraged return. This might give some color to the expectations from ACAS senior portfolio. A number of BDCs are turning in this direction. In addition, Divvy rate on SLRC is over 8% with a 14% discount to book. I own ACAS, but not SLRC. This gives some feel for direction at ACAS.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum May 9, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    You can always buy additional shares in an offering to maintain your % position and not be diluted.

  • Reply to

    Blackrock SC 13G/A

    by sandy.criscione May 8, 2014 3:20 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum May 8, 2014 7:21 PM Flag

    This is up from around 24 million in February

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum May 8, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    Here is a better scenario: ACAS merges BDC assets with another bdc like ARCC or PSEC and splits out the management company. BDC assets sell for 10% discount to book and ACAM sells for a premium. Problem is asset quality at ACAS sucks with nonperforming assets so high at above 9% compared to PSEC for example with under 1%.

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum May 8, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    What is the benefit of having them in ACE 3 vs where they are now?

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Apr 30, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    I predict that there will be a rise in book value of around 25 to 40 cents based on increased valuations for ECAS, AGNC NAV increase, MTGE projected NAV increase and concomitant increase in value of ACAM offset by some valuation reductions in portfolio of BDC. In addtition I expect discussion of potential plan of spinoff of BDC assets. I would like to see the stock respond positively considering the 21,500 may 16 calls outsanding. Your turn!

  • Reply to

    Put Options & ARCM

    by alexalekhine Apr 25, 2014 5:40 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Apr 28, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    If stock distribution is greater than 10% of overall capitalized value, then adjustment would most likely be made. In this case, the spin of is 1 ARCM for each 10 shares of ARCP. However, the market value of ARCM per share is not expected to be 10% that of ARCP, so it is not likely to be adjusted in my opinion. The transaction is expected (according to page 5 of ARCP presentation) to be .05 accretive ot AFFO, .07 accretive to dividend and add $1.15 to value of ARCP. All of these are less than 10% metrics so it doesn't look good. That said, look at the 2015 January 10 puts. They could be interesting even without adjustment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Apr 24, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    Personally, I was hoping for their manufactured report to come out and give me a great opportunity to add across the board. What are they waiting for---the good news from ATLS, ARP and APL to fade before the second attack? I think this is an example of crying wolf too many times. Line, then KMI, now ATLS. The effects are diminishing, but they have already covered and moved on.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Setting up for big 1Q at ATLS

    by bosox_pats Jan 31, 2014 7:33 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Apr 23, 2014 10:03 PM Flag

    I have been long ATLS since it was in the teens. 20,000 units plus 30,000 arp and significant apl and others. Hope the hedgeye gives me opportunity with their bs report tomorrow to add more. I have owned MLPs since the early 90s when there were only a handful like Lakehead Pipeline which is long since absorbed. They have made me wealthy, so hang in there folks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Apr 23, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    bought another 109,700 at $20.16

    Sentiment: Buy

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