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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

youcanpickum 59 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 7:28 PM Member since: May 29, 2000
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  • Reply to

    interesting Cole press release

    by bloodyknuckles14 Dec 19, 2014 3:08 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Dec 19, 2014 7:28 PM Flag

    This was done to get sales of these products started again. It must really be hurting to have these funds stagnate. No sales, no fees.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Dec 19, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    The fact that Nick and Kay had to resign is very telling. Kay was lying on his conference call. He knew at the time that he had participated in a criminal activity along with Nick assuming any of this is true. Watch a tape appear that corroborates what is in the suit.. He probably hoped the other participants would stay quiet. I am also sure he got word of the pending lawsuit and bailed. He would have known and so would Nick. That is criminal. There is no one who is enough of a heavyweight at ARCP to lead with refinancing, growing the business, or any strategic decisions like restructuring the company. This will be sold off in pieces with the best properties going first at reasonable prices just to reduce debt. Dividend will be cut in half as well. Then we are left with the less marketable properties like Red Lobster and no growth. I am not seeing the upside, but there is plenty of downside left.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Timing is Odd

    by alexalekhine Dec 15, 2014 10:20 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Dec 15, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    Read the separation agreements. Clawback, etc. The upside here is limited to maybe 12, but the downside near term is 2-4 if another extension is not forthcoming or findings lead to other debt-related tightening which could kill the divvy til covenants are restored. I am now out.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Dec 15, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    The cost of defending against them is enormous, though.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Timing is Odd

    by alexalekhine Dec 15, 2014 10:20 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Dec 15, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    Problem is, you have a rudderless ship. This company is now officially for sale. Remember Kay saying emphatically last month that there is no way he would leave. What else did he say? No bad people just bad choices. Wow. There is now a very good chance that this company will be sold, but before then, the audit will find additional problems. Kay doesn't want to be associated with this POS, plus he has ties to Schorsch. But you can't trust anything that comes out of their mouths and they only have til 1-15 to post corrections. Buyers won't pay top dollar for this. Cole is now worthless to an outsider.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    year-end rally & january effect

    by sandy.criscione Dec 12, 2014 11:30 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Dec 15, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    Quite a number of Senior note funds are trading down due to the Oil sector getting hit and % of loans related to that industry in portfolios. Many are at 80% or less of Book Value. So timing of getting heavily into the senior loan biz is not great for ACAS. If new loans are put on books now, we might see a pickup in yield as paper is bought at a slight discount, but otherwise, just bad timing IMO.

  • Keep in mind what determines the value of the Medallion in the first place. It is the potential income from renting the license to a driver that determines the value at any time. Has the value dropped by 50%? No. Of course not. So what would it take to cause a 50% drop in revenue on rental of the Medallion? Perhaps only a change in the law that allows a doubling of taxis in Manhattan and elsewhere that now has a restriction. Would New York want twice as many drivers on the street? I highly doubt it. Would they want to regulate a whole new industry and deal with the insurance issues etc. I highly doubt that either. I would say that TAXI could do a better job of presenting it's portfolio, perhaps with a chart of the number of and cost of licenses at each level to show which loans are most at risk to better gauge the true portfolio risk rather than an average number which can be deceiving. Is it 40% LTV on the number of loans or the $ value of loans? If 10% of loans where made at $600,000 on $1,000,000 Medallions, then that skews the numbers upward, but adds risk of loss. So what is the initial LTV permitted on any loan? If you know this for sure, please post it here.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Two more heads rolled

    by rondhale Dec 3, 2014 6:33 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Dec 3, 2014 10:50 PM Flag

    This is done instead of or in case insurance is not available. So if ARCP can't get officers insurance now and wants to keep the new CFO they have to offer to cover them somehow given the ongoing issues. This is one way to do it.

  • Reply to

    $1.80 ARB DISCOUNT!!!!

    by iwiniwin2 Dec 1, 2014 3:05 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Dec 1, 2014 5:46 PM Flag

    $2.40. I think that is possible, but still think a deal gets done since it is so accretive to TRGP and NGLS. I have been out since deal was announced, but bought a small (7500 units) back at just under 28. Don't care if deal is dropped. ATLS is also at discount. Parity there is $33.31. I calculate $29.91 on APL. My $2.40 comes from after hours price of $27.51

    Sentiment: Hold

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Nov 20, 2014 11:08 PM Flag

    What I want to know is the exact breakdown of investors in ACE 3. Could there be any funny business going on with Malon or anyone associated with ACAS have indirect ownership of ACE 3? Transparency.

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Nov 20, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    Only thing hurting us now is strong dollar.

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Nov 14, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    ABY dividend guidance raised. Not ABGB.

  • Reply to

    Analysis-ARCP

    by nowreallyknowthetruth Nov 14, 2014 7:26 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Nov 14, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    Are you a moron? You should not be posting if you have no idea what you are saying. DRIP is all new shares and the company gets the money. Where do you think the shares come from? AIR?

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Nov 13, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    This is from the CCPT V supplement:

    On October 29, 2014, the indirect parent of our sponsor, our advisor, our dealer manager and our property manager
    announced non-reliance on certain of its financial statements. Subsequently, our dealer manager was advised by several of the
    broker-dealers participating in this offering that they would either terminate or suspend their selling dealer agreements with our
    dealer manager, and by certain prospective broker-dealers that, for a period of time, they would suspend their initial review of
    our offering prior to entering into a selling dealer agreement with our dealer manager. As a result, we may not be able to raise a
    substantial amount of capital in the near term. If we are not able to raise a substantial amount of capital, we may have difficulty
    in identifying and purchasing suitable properties on attractive terms in order to meet our investment objectives and may be
    unable to reduce our current leverage profile. This could also adversely affect our ability to pay regular distributions from cash
    flow from operations to investors.

  • Reply to

    What if ARCP wins the lawsuit?

    by jaust192 Nov 13, 2014 11:16 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Nov 13, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    This is the sad result of guilt by association. Nothing more. RCAP will recover. The sad part is that the Cole deal would have been good for RCAP. The stock portion of the purchase was crushed and would have required much more cash. This would have been a point of contention anyway.

  • Reply to

    JP Morgan upgrade this morning....

    by blankwillie Nov 11, 2014 1:01 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Nov 12, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    Targets are meaningless whether they are high or low. I have seen targets cut in half over almost nothing or raise significantly and backdated by a day to match a stock's huge upswing on good news. JP Morgan's opinion is no better than anyone else's. The market is speaking right now and it is not too impressed. That is all that matters. My straddle will offer a buffer while this sorts out, but I have liquidated 3/4 of my position which was quite large. I just want to wait til after Jan 1. to sell the balance so I don't get hit with any more 3.8% surtax this year. At 15.38 I am about even vs an outright sale at 16.14 for the rest of my shares. Below that, I just postpone my tax bill by a quarter. Been watching ARES and others to see how market will treat ACAM/ACAS. Not very encouraging.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    American Capital Income Spinoff

    by youcanpickum Nov 5, 2014 6:09 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Nov 10, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    I own that too!

  • Reply to

    American Capital Income Spinoff

    by youcanpickum Nov 5, 2014 6:09 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Nov 10, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    Take a look at FSFR trading at 10.88 with a book of 13.89. 78% of book for a senior loan fund with a $1.20 dividend. I have a spreadsheet of funds and most are at 10 - 20% discounts to book. So I don't expect a miracle. When you take the haircut of dilution, and expected discounts, there isn't a whole lot of near term upside. I sold the 16 calls and 14 puts so I am satisfied for now and will keep doing something similar while I wait.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Merger math

    by marklibera Nov 6, 2014 3:57 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Nov 10, 2014 2:08 PM Flag

    ARCX LP units equal 12% x 40% x 12,950,000 shares outstanding divided by 51,900,000 of ATLS = 0.012 shares of ARCX per ATLS = $0.275 per share of ATLS using a price of 23 on ARCX. 16% GP share value is a question mark, but certainly not close to $2. The real question here is value of various GP components, ARP, Lightfoot , DEVCO GP.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Newcomer longs - something to be aware of

    by djp5625 Nov 9, 2014 10:37 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Nov 10, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    If they did the same thing going back 2 years, it would only amount to about 10 cents per share. So let's not be ridiculous here. You have a better chance of shooting the left testicle off a gnat than you do of moving the stock with exaggerated nonsense.

    Sentiment: Hold

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