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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

youcanpickum 59 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 15, 2014 1:36 PM Member since: May 29, 2000
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  • Reply to

    New stock offering announced

    by male_us_30_california Sep 23, 2014 5:26 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Sep 23, 2014 6:29 PM Flag

    This will raise money to buy more platforms from SDRL at higher than market prices helping SDRL raise cash indirectly and screwing SDLP holders by over paying for assets that will renew contracts at lower prices in the near future.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Sep 24, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    1.1 Billion with 39 limited partners

    Sentiment: Buy

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Oct 1, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    At 13.96, we are at 71.5% of a lower book value of 19.5 adjusting for potential drop in AGNC, MTGE assets etc. Really?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Prive to adjusted book value

    by youcanpickum Oct 1, 2014 10:48 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Oct 1, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    I am simply taking a guesstimate of slightly lower NAV for both as well as any other adjustments that could be out there during the cleanup phase before reorg. If there are none, then the price is 69% of book. Several other funds such as SLRC, SUNS, ACSF and others with a portfolio of Senior Secured Debt are now trading down as well, but only about 15% below book, though they pay cash dividends. All are interesting values here since they will see rising income if rates go up (though muted by higher borrowing costs).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Oct 2, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    "we agreed to contribute 100% of our equity and equity-related investments in seven portfolio companies (Affordable Care Holding Corp., Avalon Laboratories Holding
    Corp., CIBT Investment Holdings, LLC, FAMS Acquisition, Inc., Mirion Technologies, Inc., PHI Acquisitions, Inc. and SMG Holdings, Inc.) to the Fund" so the debt is still on ACAS books. That amounts to 12.6 million. The convertible debt was 59.4 million and get this, the equity was on the books at 5 million.

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Oct 2, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    correction: on the books 12/31/13 at $5myn, on 6-30-14 at 4.5myn. So they thought it had dropped just 3 months ago. Convertible debt dropped from 59.4 myn to 53.5 myn 6-30-14.

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Oct 2, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    We need to see balance sheet for Avalon to determine value of ACEIII interest net of other debt and equity. I agree. Still, why would you discount a company by 10% when you are so close to an exit?

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Oct 2, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    On July 29th were read: Pro forma normalized estimated AFFO run rate as of year-end 2014 of $1.18 - $1.20 per share including 2014 completed and announced transactions. This AFFO estimate does not include any balance sheet acquisitions in excess of our $4.5 billion 2014 guidance, no dispositions, no rent growth or G&A synergies for 2015 and assumes results for Cole Capital consistent with the Company's 2014 projection.
    Then today we read: Update on 2014 and Introducing 2015 Earnings Guidance: In light of its pending sale of Cole Capital to RCAP during the fourth quarter of 2014, ARCP has reviewed and revised its 2014 AFFO guidance to a range of $1.06 to $1.08 per share. In addition, ARCP is introducing a 2015 AFFO guidance range of $1.11 to $1.14 per share. Our 2015 AFFO per share guidance is based on a range of balance sheet acquisitions between $2.5 billion and $3.5 billion as well as $4 billion to $5 billion of acquisitions on behalf of the Managed Funds and ARC Global II in 2015. SO WE SELL A GREAT ASSET which Nicholas S. Schorsch says will increase RCAPs income by 50cps next year and reduce our AFFO to barely cover the dividend. Why?

    Sentiment: Sell

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Oct 6, 2014 11:30 PM Flag

    The issue is hedging going forward to minimize risk to distribution. They are reasonably hedged forward including for the QR aquisition according to the most recent presentation. Question is how far oil falls now that we are an oilier partnership and how long it stays down. Nat Gas should be a bit more stable. Good news is that below $90 new wells are generally not profitable, especially deep wells so it should be a shorter cyle.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Conference call highlights

    by marklibera Oct 13, 2014 7:56 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Oct 14, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    With UBTI of over $1000 you will have taxes on any income from ATLS held in your ira. MLPs don't go in an IRA!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Oct 15, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    In addition to the fact that other bdcs took a hit this morning (BKCC, TICC, PNNT, etc) PSEC made a filing error that might have caused additional pain. That has already been corrected. BDCs are now on average at 20% discounts to book value. ????

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    KMI- Will ATLS be next?

    by legalbark Aug 10, 2014 7:01 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Oct 15, 2014 7:33 PM Flag

    Wow, how was that for seeing the future!?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Oct 15, 2014 7:39 PM Flag

    ATLS could buy in ARP and redistribute assets to is Atlas growth partners investors, continue to collect fees on the assets while not have the risk. HMMMM. Mr. Cohen said they are looking at different ways to increase ARP shareholder value. Creative ways, I believe he said. That would be creative. This way the balance sheet could be used to buy new properties and place them in new partnerships and keeping an overriding interest. Right now you are buying ARP shares for cheap by buying ATLS.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    How many shares will we get in TRGP per 100 ATLS? .

    by jjaf2005 Oct 15, 2014 11:11 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Oct 15, 2014 10:35 PM Flag

    No!. That is the payout for APL. ATLS gets $9.12 cash and .1809 TRGP plus the spinco of ATLS gp.

  • Reply to

    What does deal mean for QEPM?

    by dorkymcirish Oct 21, 2014 10:04 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Oct 21, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    After the closing of the Field Services unit, TLLP will rollup the balance of QEPM. This was stated several times during the conference call almost as an afterthought. The QEPM portion of the purchase was secondary to the purchase of Field Services assets and the GP. The question is whether we get stock or cash. I am guessing the price will be around the 20-21 range given where it was trading prior to the announcement in order to preempt class action lawsuits which would be reasonable at this level with the parent leaving the child out to dry. Then it is a question of the cheapest currency. TLLP, which I loaded up on today, if it goes back to upper 60s would make a cheap currency with immediate accretion. I imagine QEPM shadowing TLLP to a certain extent and am also long QEPM as of today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Oct 21, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    On July 3, 2014, a notice of the filing of the application was issued (Investment Company Act
    Release No. 31148). The notice gave interested persons an opportunity to request a hearing and
    stated that an order disposing of the application would be issued unless a hearing was ordered.
    No request for a hearing has been filed, and the Commission has not ordered a hearing.
    The matter has been considered and it is found, on the basis of the information set forth in the
    application, as amended, that granting the requested exemption is appropriate in the public
    interest and consistent with the protection of investors and the purposes fairly intended by the
    policy and provisions of the Act.
    IT IS ORDERED, under section 6(c) of the Act, that the exemption from section 12(d)(3) of the
    Act, requested by American Capital, Ltd., et al. (File No. 812-14222), is granted, effective
    immediately, subject to the same conditions as those imposed by the Prior Order.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Let's say they cut the distribution to 90% of AFFO of $.90. That's an 81 cent distribution. So this will recover and become a buyout candidate at 12 x AFFO which would be highly accretive to any buyer who has a strong balance sheet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Been loading up on ACSF ..

    by its_not_my_business_but Oct 28, 2014 1:07 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Oct 29, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    I have open orders in the low 12s and keep adding as well. Look at SUNS which is similar and trades at a similar discount. It is thinly traded also and jumped 50cent in the last two days on very little volume.

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Oct 29, 2014 8:06 PM Flag

    Deal came right back to market.

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Oct 30, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    100% margin means forced liquidation so this should be over by 10:30

    Sentiment: Hold

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