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Jarden Corp. Message Board

youcanpickum 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 3, 2016 9:17 PM Member since: May 29, 2000
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  • Reply to

    MPLX thoughts

    by danny_holman Feb 3, 2016 7:17 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Feb 3, 2016 9:17 PM Flag

    2016 distribution coverage of 1.0-1.1x. Much lower than before. Bought back today and sold 20 puts. This will improve with oil so I believe I am getting back in after the bad news is out. I expect a further drop, but not much. They are protecting ratings which are bbb/bbb

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Discount to NAV

    by youcanpickum Jan 14, 2016 11:41 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 15, 2016 9:21 AM Flag

    This is my last post here as I am now out of my position in ACAS. There are other dividend paying BDCs that are more interesting, pay less that NII and sell at huge discounts. This morning we will have a good opportunity to buy them all including ACAS at even lower valuations so good luck to all.

  • Reply to

    Discount to NAV

    by youcanpickum Jan 14, 2016 11:41 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 15, 2016 9:16 AM Flag

    Thanks for the lesson. It's a good thing you are here to explain investing to me. The point which perhaps you are not aware of is that there are tons of assets selling at deep discounts to what management thinks is the true value. In addition, many BDCs including ACAS if you are not aware, use third party values and often pick and choose. PSEC is a good example of valuing its CLO book at far higher prices than other BDCs for the very same tranches and uses the arguement that they have controlling interests. Again, ACAS used spurious valuation when transferring assets to ACE3 when it was to certain "investors" benefit (not ours) so surely they can do the same to inflate other assets if deemed beneficial. The one time you can't do that is when you actually need to sell. I hope this explanation helps you to understand how business and management operates you pompous jerk.

  • Reply to

    Discount to NAV

    by youcanpickum Jan 14, 2016 11:41 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 14, 2016 8:10 PM Flag

    Where I disagree on the aged loans is that origination is not a cost. It is a source of revenue. Think fees man! Also FV is related to current NAV so unless the loans are all at a discount on the book, a buyer would have to amortize the premium so it is moot. All that matters here is the value a willing buyer is willing to pay. I am saying that BX, APO, KKR and other fine private equity firms have been hammered as well and have been discounted in the same way. There are too many alternative that pay income and trade at a similar discount to make ACAS that appealing at this time. Here is a REIT which is trading at 47% of book---NRF. The parent is NSAM who also just hired Goldman to sell them.

  • Reply to

    Discount to NAV

    by youcanpickum Jan 14, 2016 11:41 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 14, 2016 11:59 AM Flag

    Across the board they are down 10 to 25% of the last 5 days so there are that many more now below 60% of nav let alone 65%.

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Jan 14, 2016 11:41 AM Flag

    There are currently more than 5 BDCs selling below 60% of nav and pay dividends. So why is ACAS soddamn special? I am now out but still shorting puts

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    WMB holder with a question to ETE holders

    by oinkoink019 Jan 13, 2016 8:57 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 13, 2016 9:42 PM Flag

    Remember that if you own ete even at a higher price, due to K1 issues, you will be hit with Ordinary Income recapture on a sale, and for tax reasons depending on when you bought, you could still have a gain due to losses that have been sheltering your income all this time. Just Sayin!!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Sobering assessment on Valuations from MF

    by lenyw Jan 8, 2016 8:12 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 12, 2016 6:56 AM Flag

    What NOI? What earnings? What Billion shares? Mine are real. All you can do is imagine. I put my money where my mouth was and now do the same by liquidating. Perhaps there will be a bump, but other opportunities have arisen that will provide overall better returns and are less murky. Compared to any other decent BDC, ACAS has been poor in terms of portfolio investment management.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Sobering assessment on Valuations from MF

    by lenyw Jan 8, 2016 8:12 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 11, 2016 8:21 PM Flag

    My point about ACE 3 is just that You can not trust management to put an accurate valuation on their assets. If they sold at 90% of book, but were really worth more, what's to say that they haven't overvalued other assets that we continue to hold to offset that discount, collect higher fees and maintain NAV. Finally, if you take out the buybacks and consider that no dividend has been paid for years, I would say that the net return on assets under management net of fees has been abysmal. With that in mind I liquidated over 100k shares yesterday and today and now focus on selling puts. That has given me the best return on ACAS in the last 3 years.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Sobering assessment on Valuations from MF

    by lenyw Jan 8, 2016 8:12 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 11, 2016 2:46 PM Flag

    Look at the values of every asset manager that is listed from APO, BEN, BX, KKR, NSAM (even with exploring a sale), etc and they are all in the dumper. Really? ACE3 sale to an unknown list of investors at a huge discount to asset sales in ACE3 just months later? They didn't know? The market just magically moved up? Stop drinking the coolaid. I am simply saying that the easy assets to sell have been sold. The rest have values that are at best 3rd party pricing as well as ACAM valuation. So don't be so self righteous.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Sobering assessment on Valuations from MF

    by lenyw Jan 8, 2016 8:12 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 11, 2016 10:51 AM Flag

    Here is another take on the buyback. Let's say the entire 1byn is used to buy back stock at 15. You get a $5.50 bump give or take giving you $370,000,000. accretion. That sounds great on the surface, but if the remaining, less transparent assets are really overvalued, then you have that many fewer shareholders to bear the burden and it is that much more dilutive to NAV on a per share price. It think this has been a game of three card monte all along and they know it. By the way, Northstar Asset Management just put itself on the block using Goldman to find a buyer. The asset managers are all in the tank so I can just imagine the true value of ACAM is less than the current mark.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Sobering assessment on Valuations from MF

    by lenyw Jan 8, 2016 8:12 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 9, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    Most existing BDCs would want to buy assets, not overhead. They would prefer to use existing employees and leverage their strengths rather than hope the ACAS employees who have shown less than stellar judgement (to put it lightly ie:ACE3 sale and a huge discount). Therefore it is a question of value of the assets and how close the marks are to reality. Finally, what discount will a buyer want in this market where there are more than a half dozen DBCs trading at or below 70% of NAV. ACAM could be rolled into another management company like FSAM or MDLY, but Malon and company would be gone. It would only be for the income stream that could be valued. The problem there is the severe discount asset managers are suffering from now. Whether it is FSAM, Northstar, Medley, Apollo, KKR etc, they are all getting crushed so Malon, where were you a year ago? This is selling at the bottom. Now That sounds like the ACAS motto!! I dumped half of my stock yesterday, but kept my collar at 13 and 16 for February.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Who would like to guess today's opening price??

    by ian_vester Jan 8, 2016 6:29 AM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 8, 2016 9:42 AM Flag

    If I was selling my company which simply consisted of a management company and it's investments and my compay was selling for far less than liquidation value, understanding the illiquid nature of some of the investments, I would liquidate my liquid investments, buy back undervalued stock which accrues directly to the shareholders, hold back operating cash for the balance of my portfolio, reduce my overhead (right size the company for go forward needs) and be sure to double check the valuation of the balance of the portfolio to be certain that there are no surprises. Then I would be sure to report those results quickly to my shareholders. I am long stock, short 12 and 13 puts and 16 and 17 calls. I think we are range bound until the final verdict is in. So a high of 15.75 and low of 13.5 barring any update to NAV that surprises in either direction.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    interesting development

    by nhpwatcher Jan 7, 2016 6:53 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 8, 2016 12:03 AM Flag

    Any buyer would only want to purchase the assets at a discount otherwise they would just go and purchase assets in the open market. So the question is , now that asset manager values are in the crapper, is ACAM overvalued on their book and do we see a hit to NAV or do we now wait another 3 to 6 months to find out that there were no quote unquote suitable offers. What if any assets does the company have that might be worth more than they currently show on the book what is the tax asset worth those will be interesting questions to have answered

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 7, 2016 9:17 PM Flag

    Now The sale of the bonds makes sense. Liquidate what you can for close to par and buy back stock at a discount to bump NAV. Get the options further in the money, and exercise. Clean it up and sell off the balance of the assets. The only wild card is how they will manage to screw us with ACAM. I am guessing they will somehow sell that as a separate entity for a modest valuation to themselves via some less than transparent entity and flip it shortly thereafter like they did with ACE3. These guys are still thieves after all. On the other hand, what will they be managing other than ACSF, AGNC, and MTGE when the rest is sold off? Guess my puts won't be getting exercised at 12 and 13! Time to write more calls if we get a bump!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Jan 7, 2016 8:39 PM Flag

    That is one of the stupidest posts I have ever read.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Share buyback guesses?

    by newly_minted_bucks Dec 28, 2015 12:26 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Dec 30, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    So we can agree that ACAS management excels at taking losses in its portfolio repeatedly while transferring assets with built in gains out to other vehicles in which they have interest (ACE3) at undervalued marks and simply selling them there to their benefit. The only benefit we have seen in recent quarters has come from share repurchases offset by otherwise very poor investment decisions for us. But, at least they are consistent. NMB, why don't you stop the cheerleading and admit, management is not on our side here.

  • Reply to

    Share buyback guesses?

    by newly_minted_bucks Dec 28, 2015 12:26 PM
    youcanpickum youcanpickum Dec 29, 2015 10:04 PM Flag

    My guess is that buyback accretion is offset by loss on sale of positions. A 2 point loss on those bonds and loans would equate to (let's just say) $40myn. Buyback of 15 million shares at $5.5 accretion gives $82.5 million. Then with lost income on the bonds with continued high overhead and fees on the cash etc, we magically break even this quarter. And I am long, but not because I am a believer in management at this point. I am long PSEC as well and at least there we have huge management buying at this level. There has been almost none at ACAS, just the woosh of fees being paid out and nothing coming back for years.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • youcanpickum by youcanpickum Dec 22, 2015 9:19 PM Flag

    Since the PSEC board has been killed, and I post here usually, I thought I would bring up the huge insider buys at PSEC recently, including yesterday. What I have not seen is any insider buying at ACAS. So to what do you attribute that stark difference in insider activity? I am very long both, though I have lightened up ACAS to go longer PSEC.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • youcanpickum youcanpickum Dec 16, 2015 6:48 PM Flag

    That is absolutely right. At least one person is paying attention. Cash is always an easy commodity to value, but also offers a zero rate of return so the game is most certainly afoot.

    Sentiment: Hold

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