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CARBO Ceramics Inc. Message Board

youngwolf_98 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 11, 2014 1:42 PM Member since: Dec 7, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by youngwolf_98 Aug 8, 2014 2:06 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Aug 11, 2014 1:42 PM Flag

    Really like the new opportunity with LNG fuel (vs. propane) which should certainly help margins with all their expansion growth. DJ looks good and making inroads in East, TX and WY. Also expanding well service maintenance to help in the warmer months. Not bad at all.

  • youngwolf_98 by youngwolf_98 Aug 8, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    They already prepped for the loss in their press statement. Will be interesting to see how guidance, financing and expansion plays weigh in. Will hold and add on dips (although maybe we are getting the dips now). Stock moves fast due to low float. Even though they have had some tough luck (propane and well issue), they certainly seem to doing the right things (especially if they have made progress on the counter-seasonal market expansion).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Another solid quarter if you ask me

    by cbd0012003 Aug 7, 2014 4:40 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Aug 8, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    Bad = 2Q production miss, higher production tax and DD&A and oil differentials.
    Good = NAV upside due to downspacing tests, extended laterals, preliminary Codell step-outs.

  • Reply to

    Another solid quarter if you ask me

    by cbd0012003 Aug 7, 2014 4:40 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Aug 8, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Guess right now I am more a buyer of SYRG and PDCE (CRZO as well) for upside but looks like BCEI gives a nice opportunity to add with these earnings. They have come a long way in a relatively short period of time but I think some of its peers may have more growth in the near-term. Can imagine consolidation in DJ over the next few years as companies improve their Niobrara/Codell completions and more importantly, the region gets takeaway capacity. With the ballot issue relatively contained, there is a good fairway ahead for these producers.

  • youngwolf_98 by youngwolf_98 Aug 8, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    Have been using the dip to add to RSPP and buying FANG in 70s. Saw that ATHL also issued equity. PE also looks rather undervalued relative to peers but waiting on earnings to decide. Like the RSPP horizontal program and latest ops update. These companies are growing production fast.

  • Reply to

    Best part about ENSV

    by michaellipka Jul 21, 2014 4:22 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Jul 26, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    Yes is now 'cost plus' which means they can pass along price increase to consumer. This was not in previous contract so increased revenues did not yield increased profit. Live and learn. Next two quarters probably very weak but fleet expansion and build out of less seasonal well services should prepare them well for this coming winter.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Down right cheap at these levels

    by tobypharma Jul 25, 2014 5:11 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Jul 26, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Seems to get punished for beating earnings of late. Like the strength in products and upside for Rovs in 2h. Guess need to watch margins and mix as it evolves but this company seems to be growing and diversifying in a sectoral downdraft. Very good sign to me as this is a niche player that is growing its competitive advantage in both traditional and new areas - umbilical awards are case in point. Keep on roving...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Best part about ENSV

    by michaellipka Jul 21, 2014 4:22 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Jul 23, 2014 5:02 PM Flag

    I bet companies like BAS are following. This year should be interesting and I like their positioning - especially in the dj.

  • youngwolf_98 by youngwolf_98 Jul 13, 2014 9:10 PM Flag

    News should make things interesting in the deal chatter. Surprised by the price (around 13.90) but KOG has had a pretty nice run-up over the year. Puts OAS a bit higher on my add list but expectations need to be tempered as per pricing of KOG-WLL deal.

  • Reply to

    ANYONE ALIVE ON THIS BOARD???

    by esteejp Jun 30, 2014 7:09 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Jul 10, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    Interesting to see RSPP operated properties included in the new Viper IPO (Diamondback). Watching these producers carefully and earnings over the next few quarters should be telling (if not lumpy) as the horizontal movement grows in this play. EIA has a nice update on the Permian in their Today in Energy section (July 9). Was hoping to add RSPP to my Permian portfolio (

  • youngwolf_98 by youngwolf_98 Jun 24, 2014 6:42 PM Flag

    That's a good start. Now will need some for light tight oil.

  • Reply to

    #$%$?

    by flickgrip Jun 16, 2014 10:34 AM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Jun 16, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    Great day to add - especially under $44/share. This one is going to $50 in no time. Permian Permian Permian - their exposure to crude pipeline segment in the hottest play at the moment is quality (plus Eaglebine & Granite Wash) and everything else they have going is icing (Mariner NGLs, refined products, etc.). Look at organic growth and large cap-ex raise for 2014. ATM financing provides optionality and is much less dilutive/cost-intensive vs. large capital raise and can be used whenever the company needs it (and will bring about much lower share price impact vs. other more onerous forms of cap. raise). I was in this company in 2012-2013 and took gains but used this split to get back in.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    #$%$?

    by flickgrip Jun 16, 2014 10:34 AM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Jun 16, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    Post split meandering. Remember when ETE split - went down before it digested the move and went back up. Give it some time and it should be back on course. They are in the right spot at the right time.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • youngwolf_98 by youngwolf_98 Jun 12, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    Nice news indeed - each $100 million around 2% of float? Tighten the spring for successive quarters. The weaker than expected first quarter is behind us. The bugaboo is that this company is so quiet that it's hard to know about specific contracts signed and progress being made on executing the robust backlog. What keeps me in and adding options is the margin, solid financials and niche focus on deepwater/high-end subsea environments. Hoping for a solid second half 2014 and a very strong 2015. Second quarter will be telling though regarding company's success in skillful and efficient execution of backlog and accumulation of new high margin business in the product side.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Split today

    by toby20002001 Jun 11, 2014 10:55 AM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Jun 12, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    Should show up by tomorrow morning. I recently got back into SXL. I thought I would have an opportunity to get back in at a lower price pre-split but that didn't happen. May be some opportunities to add after the split and I will do so under $90/$45. In the last earnings call, they mentioned ATM equity program and an update later this summer but doubt that will create a significant buying opportunity. So it goes. Can't really say anything negative about this one except that I shouldn't have taken profits when I did in hindsight. Also watching MMP but that too has had quite a leap over the past few quarters.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Jun 11, 2014 7:44 PM Flag

    Should be an interesting quarter. Lots of IPO news focused on freshly minted Permian companies - from Parsely to RSP and then ATH and FANG before that - all focusing specifically on this sub-basin. Holding onto my AREX as they have low cost prices (per acre/per well) and infrastructure even though they aren't in the core. The EP transaction helped prove up the neighborhood and I believe AREX will continue its momentum a bit (at least until we produce too much light sweet crude).

  • Reply to

    FANG vs ATHL

    by stockdaddy_mac Apr 16, 2014 6:15 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Jun 11, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    Like FANG for its high oil ratio, PE for its large rig program and ATHL for its organic plus A&D growth. Nice ducky derby here and adding in my AREX for value and PXD/CXO for 'old timers' (cheaper wells in SE part of basin). Permian getting lot of attention of late. My only fear is surplus of light oil in US and implications for price end of this year and next (unless crude/condensate exports allowed). Permian in early stages of horizontal development and this companies should do well based on their critical mass in core of the play. Need to see more on type curves as well as crude price projections (as well as NGLs and natural gas).

  • youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Jun 2, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    Will take some time to see results but according to TPH, most TMS wells are tracking 600mboe curve with best well (Crosby 12H #1) closer to 800mboe. Crosby has produced ~175mboe in 15 months, putting it on track to pay out in just shy of two years at $60/bbl netback (in vicinity of lowest cost oil plays which pay out in

  • Reply to

    Nice Week

    by youngwolf_98 May 30, 2014 4:37 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 May 31, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    Looks like they are not in Toronto next week. But will see how they increase their operational range. I like this company but would help if they weren't so dependent on hibernal months.

CRR
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