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Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. Message Board

youngwolf_98 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 6, 2016 4:30 PM Member since: Dec 7, 2007
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  • youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Apr 6, 2016 4:30 PM Flag

    For dividends (distributions) now, I would buy WPZ (but it's an MLP). That said, I do like SUN and SXL for a nice mix of distribution growth plus capital/unit appreciation. Am a fan of ETE as well but feel like that one needs to get through the current morass that it the Williams acquisition (or not). Even though the K-1s can be cumbersome, I generally prefer the upside that select MLPs (like SUN) offer compared to more conservative c-corp dividend players (T or VZ). Especially given how much the energy midstream/retail MLPs have fallen over the past 21 months....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Pipes continue to advance higher again

    by rpfla Mar 16, 2016 12:48 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Mar 18, 2016 10:01 AM Flag

    Agree and would also recommend SUN - retail/convenience. Goes well with rising gasoline demand and is generally less susceptible to both commodity downturn and counterparty risk. PSX also interesting but rarely comes down....

  • youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Mar 16, 2016 1:01 PM Flag

    Agree with your perspective and numbers NoSure. If it was trading in the 6-8 range, I would be more conservative but do like the opportunity at 4-5 range. I also see that they will likely have a rather interesting news flow over the next few quarters that will likely keep the pressure on upside rather downside. I feel like the stock is being treated as if it failed a major FDA drug review and will require another year for positive news. This binary treatment is definitely not the case. Granted, all biotech is getting slammed (some more than others) but I feel like TLGT has a higher potential for upside swinging news releases over the next year. And then, more accelerated organic growth in the 2017-2018 range.

  • Reply to

    roth conf...

    by micro00 Mar 14, 2016 3:23 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Mar 14, 2016 3:49 PM Flag

    I believe that presentation was at 2 pm EST according to website and news reports.

  • Reply to

    ENterprise Group

    by racehorse9 Mar 12, 2016 4:31 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Mar 14, 2016 1:18 PM Flag

    Thats actually the Energy Transfer group and not Enterprise (EPD) which is a separate midstream MLP (without an IDR).

  • Reply to

    TLGT

    by classshopper Mar 11, 2016 11:28 AM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Mar 11, 2016 3:55 PM Flag

    Guess on the close. 4.97 and 760,000 shares traded....wild week thankfully coming to a close.

  • Reply to

    856-697-1441 At the prompt press 0

    by dannyronquille Mar 10, 2016 3:52 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Mar 11, 2016 10:07 AM Flag

    Only 9 mm shares to go! It appears that the short dropped a bit into the end of Feb - to around 19.5% from low 20s. My guess is that we will see this continue to drop over the next quarter. To be fair, the whole health/biotech complex has been under fire for awhile - you can see that many of the big dogs are also way down (IBB index - BIIB, CELG, VRTX, GILD, ALXN, BMRN, etc.). Other peers have also been hit hard with the bear cycle and latest earnings reaction - PRGO, TARO, LCI, PTX, etc. We shall see where we are by September.

  • Reply to

    Slightly disappointing

    by nosurebet Mar 9, 2016 4:38 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Mar 10, 2016 10:42 AM Flag

    Can't say I am surprised by the action this morning. Given the strong presence by shorts and the downside volatility leading into earnings, it was not a shocker at all. Jason sounded optimistic on the strategy but I felt like the analysts were left a little underwhelmed by some of the answers to their questions. Seemed a little flat and wobbly but maybe that was just my perception. This company will get more sophisticated over time. The question is whether one has the patience to last them out. That said, I have experienced the same with other biotechs/healthcare stocks as well. Certainly, there is ample room for upside in the medium-long term.

  • Reply to

    Slightly disappointing

    by nosurebet Mar 9, 2016 4:38 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Mar 9, 2016 5:00 PM Flag

    Agreed. Feeling as though 2017 may be the year that I thought 2016 was going to be. And maybe this explains some of the stock volatility and short interest. Just happy to get this quarter (and year) in the books. I think it was conservative and there is broad potential for upside. They just need to get beyond their base reliance on Econozole and develop additional projects. Good to get breakdowns on post PDUFA and pre-PDUFA and interested in Canada market potential. Good news is that their pipeline re: approvals is getting much faster/smoother. We shall see and now we can get back to ANDA approval spotting......

  • youngwolf_98 by youngwolf_98 Mar 9, 2016 11:21 AM Flag

    Yes indeed. Some strange action leading up to earnings. But my focus would be more on guidance vs. actual earnings and ownership changes. Looks like some large institutions are adding - Janus, BlackRock, Broadfin, Allianz, Invesco over the last quarter or so. Much more than the funds that are selling smaller positions - Ranger, Transamerica, Kalmar. Would be nice to see more insider purchase/ownership. One of the issues this security has had in the past is its low shares out (~53 mn) and low float (~39.9 mn) along with high short interest (~10.6 mn) and the institutions were unable to purchase large enough positions. I think those with patience and deep pockets can ride this one through a very interesting near-term market and it has some very interesting prospects over the next two years. But the volatility in the near-term, the high short interest and any operational stumbleblocks over the last quarter or projected over the next seem to be headwinds for now.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    CST put up for sale

    by greyheadguy Mar 4, 2016 11:19 AM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Mar 5, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    They are in the mix. They noted about atm share deal in recent earnings call so wouldn't be surprised if they do something related to CSt bid especially if the stores fit their strategic and geographic fit. All depends on price as others such as marathon, couche tard, Japanese company could also be bidders. I may wait until another sub 29/28 drop to add.

  • Reply to

    Why down 4% crazy

    by locatedmyballs Mar 3, 2016 2:28 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Mar 3, 2016 3:08 PM Flag

    I am still buying. Hilary will keep trashing Valeant and pharma. Generics though are in a rather different boat re: prices. She wants more generics! So on that, I am not worried about this company as they are in the sweetspot compared to biotechs that have one or two higher cost brand label meds. Accelerated speed of approvals has been a nice development but I have been saying that we need to get through earnings and see what guidance brings. I am a buyer under $6.

  • Reply to

    Buy more?

    by genem7169 Jan 15, 2016 8:21 PM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Feb 28, 2016 2:32 PM Flag

    Well hindsight is 20:20. Ete has become a wild Shakespearean drama with the Wmb deal in such focus and leverage of the gp a concern. The mlp concept is indeed being challenged right now. I am still entrenched in Ete and a cautious buyer of Sxl and sun at the right price but it looks to be a very volatile year. I see considerable upside in Ete once they remove the deal albatross around their neck - but could have leverage issues, deal penalties or distribution cuts in the near term. Both Sxl and sun are solid niche plays and both are rapidly expanding their base with blue bar revenue generation. Margins and volumes likely to suffer in the near term but the growth model and distribution strength continues. Any commodity upside will help and sun is probably the least sensitive st the moment. The Ete family will protect Etp first and foremost and continue to grow the Idr contributions from Sxl and sun. Main thing now is to remove the Ete and Wmb deal overhang and hopefully see stronger oil, natural gas and ngl prices in the second half. But now I see clearly that it is not only kmi that has to make very large decisions that will have meaningful near term impact in price, distribution, credit grade, growth stability and reputation.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • youngwolf_98 by youngwolf_98 Feb 26, 2016 4:23 PM Flag

    Very interesting earnings call. I think there is some overhang now given the wider ETE family issues regarding financing the WMB deal, maintaining credit status, dividends, etc. but SUN certainly looks like it is very quickly going about capturing significant wholesale/retail market share. Some issues pertaining to volumes, debt owed to ETP for dropdowns and sensitivity in oil-producing areas but impressive margins for retail, merchandise and their stripes/Laredo tacos units. Look forward to see their progression but reminds me of SXL going after the oil, ngl pipes, marketing and terminal business over the past few years. Will set a price point and add when it dips below but they look to have a nice opportunity set given their market share growth and varied revenue streams - many of which are rather immune to commodity price risk and counterparty issues.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Stock price performance

    by gosmokeacigar Feb 25, 2016 10:54 AM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Feb 25, 2016 11:22 AM Flag

    Yes indeed. This appears oversold. Just awaiting earnings and guidance at this point and everything else is water under the bridge. Positive news about their growth path and TICO strategy with smaller acquisitions and relatively strong balance sheet. 2016 will be a key year for this company. The short overhang is a thorn but not a big worry as long as they keep progressing on fundamentals including FDA approvals and ANDA track. But this one always has a good amount of volatility so need to focus on the long-term and hope they have robust guidance and continued operational efficiency with their growth plan.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • youngwolf_98 by youngwolf_98 Feb 20, 2016 3:48 PM Flag

    Adding under 19.

    Positives
    Near term: access pipeline sale, Moody's potential credit boost, cap-ex and dividend cuts, operational efficiencies and cost savings (although staff cuts unfortunate)
    Longer term: divestments of onshore plays in Permian, Carthage, granite wash, etc. at non fire sale prices - 2 to 3 Bn inc access plus efficiency cuts of around 1 Bn
    Strategy: Anadarko synergies with Felix acquisition, enlink value complement, and well economics in stack and scoop - play expertise in eagle ford, Delaware, wood ford Cana and prb (new venture area)

    Negatives
    Dilution - needed to backstop credit outlook - see also hes, Nbl, pxd, Cxo, etc.
    Balance sheet - debt leverage in short term but ok for 2016
    Production declines
    Moody's risk of sub invest grade credit

    So more upside than downside but need to wait for best value on asset divestiture in my humble view given the significant price drop.

    Believe the upside of first half catalysts outweigh negatives but others (Xec) have much more conservative leverage and operational forte but shares have not declined to same extent.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • youngwolf_98 by youngwolf_98 Feb 19, 2016 4:13 PM Flag

    Will be interesting to hear earnings. I don't think the Perrigo earnings (PRGO) the other day helped. They have their own specific issues though that are very separate from TLGT - trimmed guidance, legal fees due to Mylan defense, international weakness in Europe, branded dynamics, etc. I want to see what TLGT has to say about ANDA stream and new approval outlook (Lidocaine, Cefotan, etc.). Had to dip into this under $6 but looks volatile until we get earnings update.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SUN down over 7% on no news

    by topdown727 Feb 3, 2016 11:08 AM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Feb 4, 2016 12:31 PM Flag

    Watching this one carefully. ETP has finished their dropdowns and I think 2016-2017 will be interesting years for this company. They are just ex-div and the short interest is rather high but I am going to see how their retail/marketing/fuel sales progress over the next few quarters. I am an investor in SXL - another Energy Transfer entity and have been happy with that (although it too has suffered over the past year with other energy companies). Apparently Sun's retail side is strong as you attest and they make good tacos (through Laredo)!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Distibution intact-----

    by jazz9650 Jan 25, 2016 8:20 AM
    youngwolf_98 youngwolf_98 Feb 3, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    Today is ex-div date (2/3) so yesterday was last day to buy to get distribution. Payment will be on 2/12.

SXL
29.16-0.12(-0.41%)May 2 4:02 PMEDT