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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

yourbestfriendintheworld 878 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 23, 2015 2:49 PM Member since: Jan 12, 2007
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  • Reply to

    The Wynn Factor

    by grottoman Feb 12, 2015 11:09 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 23, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    "the company is far more dependent on him, than even AAPL was on Steve Jobs"

    Maybe. But if he got capped I'd be buying that dip.

    The idea that Wynn can't thrive without him is obviated by your observation that other casino hotels approach Wynn's quality on their top floor, and presumably can deal at almost as high a level in serving guests both on the property and when they're at home wishing they were on the property. If J. Random Hospitality Grad can stand up a 5-star casino resort, then doesn't it stand to reason that the kids who've been working with Wynn can, too, and can run an existing one as well as it's ever been run?

    While there hasn't been any specific effort put towards demonstrating that succession will be painless, it's a fair bet that even at its most painful it won't actually be that big a hit.

    At the very least there's Elaine, who can probably figurehead this thing and maintain connections as well as Steve can. Expect a bit of a fight with Andrea, though. Could be a soap opera if she thinks she's got Elaine's chops.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 7:05 PM Flag

    AMD's only reason for existing is to line the pockets of its C-Suite.

  • Reply to

    I will never have to cover.

    by yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 11:24 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 7:05 PM Flag

    you are a paranoid masochist. i'm spending your money tonight. all $300 of it.

  • Reply to

    I will never have to cover.

    by yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 11:24 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 7:04 PM Flag

    You keep forgetting. You're the one buying the shares. The shorts have your money. You will never get it back.

  • Reply to

    I will never have to cover.

    by yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 11:24 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 7:03 PM Flag

    Pess has shown himself to be susceptible to the desire to time short-term events. It is a mistake. It will trap him. This company is doomed, and nothing short of a Chapter 11 can fix it.

  • Reply to

    before the ruling was made public

    by crk00 Feb 19, 2015 1:16 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    AmEx had a chip-and-pin payment system. But they've deleted it. My new card no longer has the Smartcard gear in it (I have a Blue, and the card is clear, so you can see the electronics through it, and the RFID antenna is gone, as are the gold contacts for slotted terminals). And the logos on the payment terminals are being taped-over to hide them (not that they ever worked; almost none were activated; I only used the RFID once, and it didn't go through so I had to swipe anyway).

    I'm guessing that it was security and reliability issues. NFC won't be that much more secure than RFID was. Mag-strip is impervious to remote reading. Though I'm surprised the smartchip technology isn't being pushed harder.

    There is literally nothing any other payments system can do that AmEx can't do and then rule from a branding perspective.

    So yes. This price is as big a discount today as it was last week.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    What do you notice about the charts of Macau stocks? Particularly the last month as compared to the last year?

  • Reply to

    AMD vs FSL

    by guangqingyao Feb 17, 2015 11:30 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    FSL has profit margins of 47% and climbing.

    AMD has profit margins of 29% and dropping.

    When you compare the debt and cash you are engaging in deluding yourself, and when you post about it you are deluding others.

    FSL may or may not be fairly priced. AMD is certainly overpriced.

  • Reply to

    I will never have to cover.

    by yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 11:24 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    I was also shorting it when it was 42. My basis is in the teens.

    You were buying this when it was in the 4's, and never told anyone you sold.

    And you have it exactly backwards. The shares you have, which were probably bought from me, and are drawn in crayon, you got when I took your money from you.

    I won't be giving it back, either.

    I will never have to cover.

  • Reply to

    before the ruling was made public

    by crk00 Feb 19, 2015 1:16 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    The impact is actually minimal. not many merchants complied, and they haven't done so for a long time.

    Between this and the Costco dump, maybe AmEx will get a clue and stop trying to use pricing to screw merchants to make money, and will start capitalizing on its superior brand image. If merchant acceptance widens and the cardholder base is expanded and energized by the cachet of the brand, it can easily clobber the other guys.

  • Reply to

    Shorts R Right

    by bluefinboots Feb 19, 2015 11:49 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    You are losing your money even before it's spent.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    he has an insatiable compulsion to draw abuse to himself

  • Reply to

    I will never have to cover.

    by yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 11:24 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    Don't consider me weak just because I only step on you when I feel like it.

    And I have not done any covering or hedging of this stock. This company is worthless. The market is full of dopes who rely on magical thinking, and flat-out trolling masochists like you.

  • Reply to

    I will never have to cover.

    by yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 11:24 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    I just did.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 19, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Just reminding you of that. Some of you will remain in denial. That's too bad for you.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 17, 2015 7:41 PM Flag

    Spit-take 2.

    If Wynn is breaching anything of yours, then sue him. We'll watch.

    The Nugget is making money only because three other casinos, including Revel, are dark right now, and a dozen others have folded outright. It's already got the "high end" in AC, because here is no high end in AC. Revel proved that.

    If NJ ever gets itself together and cleans up the town, and cuts out the corruption and thuggishness of the local and state government, then there might be a chance of marketing AC as a good place to spend your precious me-time.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 16, 2015 8:57 PM Flag

    Unless there's a deal in place to make AC less like AC, the property taxes could be zero and it'd be a bad bet. And the tax deal is only a fraction of what needs to be reversed to turn Revel into a breakeven operation. There are very good reasons that nobody's bidding even a hundred million dollars for it.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 15, 2015 2:40 AM Flag

    Um, no. The real estate taxes are only low because the property is being assessed at a negotiated value of only $225 million, and only for 2015. If bought and rehabbed, its value goes back up.

    And by "run it cheaper" I mean he would not make it a cheap place to stay. We're talking about a Wynn property. The people who wouldn't pay Revel's prices are certainly not going to pay Wynn's.

    The fact is, Wynn would howl with laughter if you proposed he buy the Revel. He sold the AC Nugget and walked away from AC years ago, giving them the finger without looking back. If he never built a new place there, he's certainly not buying someone else's mistake. He wouldn't take it if they lost it to him at his own baccarat table.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 13, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    Here's a poll i found online (at nj dot c0m):

    Why aren't more people going to Revel?
    It's too expensive. No way I can afford to go there. 37.65% (800 votes)
    Atlantic City is what's wrong with Revel. I don't like going to AC. 22.82% (485 votes)
    There are no comps at the casino. No way I'll gamble there. 22.02% (468 votes)
    I love Revel. I visited and was pretty impressed. 9.79% (208 votes)
    Revel's no-smoking policy is a big problem for me. 7.72% (164 votes)

    First of all, the smokers can go drown in the surf.

    But look at the top two answers.

    Wynn can't fix the fact that many people consider AC a hole, and he's not going to run Revel cheaper than it was being run.

    Apparently it also has architectural problems that interfere with casino revenue generation by not creating synergy between hotel traffic and the casino floor. That's like driving with your brakes on.

    Pass.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Feb 12, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    Not bad. I was thinking of something more...mystical...

    Anyway, as for your tax projections, nuh-uh. I looked up that part of the CC and the language being used is ambiguous. I think he's talking about economic benefit, not just the tax bills.

    Here's what the CC said:

    "We are going to be the one of the top five private employers in the history of the State of Massachusetts. We are going to be responsible for $50 million a month in revenue for this state, probably another $50 million in related revenues to all the surrounding communities. We are going to employ thousands and thousands of people."

    Now look at what Wynn said in its online economic impact brochure, inter alia:

    "$267 million paid in annual, recurring state and local taxes
    $900 million per year spent by Wynn guest in other local and regional businesses
    $120 million spent per year on vendor-supplied goods and services"

    If the state and local taxes are only estimated at $25M per month, that doesn't add up to the $100M you got from the CC. But if you add in the guest spending and the vendor purchases (which seems low itself), that easily adds up to your $100M/month. Most of that is not Wynn's spending. And the vendor stuff is already captured in expense. So your $100M hoodoo becomes a $25M tax bill.

    That's $75M/month, $900M/year, $8 ttm EPS, that you're unreasonably excluding from the property's bottom line.

    We're gonna need a bigger shovel.

AGNC
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