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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

yourbestfriendintheworld 441 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 minutes ago Member since: Jan 12, 2007
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  • Reply to

    My take on AMD stock.

    by pessemist 1 hour 10 minutes ago
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 6 minutes ago Flag

    ATI and nVidia are the two oligarchs of computer graphics.

    So if graphics is worth over $150 billion why doesn't AMD have at least $50 billion in revenue from it?

    And why can't it make more than 2 cents per share?

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 8 minutes ago Flag


  • Reply to

    No more free rides INTEL!!!!

    by nicoboy.boot 19 hours ago
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 9 minutes ago Flag

    Unless AMD negotiates in good faith, it's Intel who tears up the agreement, and gets to keep all the IP, forever, for free.

    Keep shooting yourself in the foot, and keep paying premium prices for worthless paper.

  • Reply to

    1 Hour away from a HUGE HUGE Drop

    by sizzlin2day Oct 28, 2014 3:31 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 19 hours ago Flag

    already happened, sunshine. you blew the call on the "HUGE HUGE drop". time for you to stop.

  • Reply to

    AGNC Target Price $15

    by dr_klumps 21 hours ago
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 20 hours ago Flag

    What color is the bench you sleep under at night? In cash for a year? I've had a fantastic year, despite the pasting I took not paying attention to the mREITs when the Fed started talking about ending QE last Spring.

    Your problem (okay, the one I'm going to illuminate with a narrow light right here) is you don't know how to diversify. BTW, you should be piling back into oil now. It's pretty much done getting killed. Winter is coming. The Arabs will make their market-share gain, mess up the Canadians' pipeline plans, set their derivative bets, then tighten their spigot once again, and we'll be back to wondering if we can make enough electric cars.

    But that's not urgent. Watching AGNC is. The talk in the Spring took the SP well below BV. That needs to reverse. Then the spread will drive the company's actions. It will be like reversing the Chicago river. Good for everyone.

  • Reply to

    Markets unstable??????

    by mmichaelr Oct 28, 2014 3:53 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 20 hours ago Flag

    What are you smoking? QE worked. It prevented deflation. There was nothing the Fed could do about inequity, but it surely could keep wages from crashing to Asian levels, and businesses from shutting down. QE worked so well that Europe just jumped in with both feet. America is done with it, now that the business climate has firmed up. We're ready to try something called letting the children move out of the house.

    It's a brave new world, junior. Get some brave new hype.

  • Reply to

    AGNC Target Price $15

    by dr_klumps 21 hours ago
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 20 hours ago Flag

    You keep targeting hyperbolic misadventures. I'll keep watching the real price and I'll tell you when it's really hit the bottom.

    15 is asking too much at this point. And don't expect the financial picture in the coming months to resemble anything in the recent past. The company will be taking advantage of the massive spread and its post-QE BV to fill up its ledger with high-value MBS.

    You'll get long some time in the next couple of weeks, or you'll miss a quality opportunity.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 21 hours ago Flag

    We won't know what kind of dogs American Capital's managers are until we find out how they planned for this moment.

    If they're stuck holding a passel of the wrong kind of swaps, AGNC shareholders are ef-balled. But if they guessed right, expect something special in your xmas stocking.

    I'm just waiting for the bottom.

  • Reply to

    Markets unstable??????

    by mmichaelr Oct 28, 2014 3:53 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 21 hours ago Flag

    Boom! Diggety.

    Low ST rates, no pumped MBS prices?

    Let the shakeout settle and then start up the share-printing press.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 22 hours ago Flag

    Pretty much a perfect storm to signify a hard bottom with obvious rebound and easy growth coming.

    Your job just got infinitely harder and more painful.

  • Reply to

    WYNN note from Sterne Agee

    by drjackcar Oct 29, 2014 7:53 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Oct 29, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    They've been reading my posts about Wynn Palace. Good.

    As for buybacks, no fricken' way. Those only serve to allow whales to sell big blocks back to the treasury without splashing the tape or allowing the vultures to circle. The volumes are too small to make meaningful waves in the overall market. And what whale would be dumb enough to want to sell this? It might as well be a division of the national mint. So no. No buybacks. No paying off crazy for no collective gain.

    That part about the efficiency is important as well. Heavy reduction in number of slot machines and smaller reduction in tables, but an increase in revenues. That's good restructuring of the productive capital.

    The casinos are being well managed, the hotels are killing it, and we're building the world's best, right where it can do the most good.

  • Reply to

    Markets unstable??????

    by mmichaelr Oct 28, 2014 3:53 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Oct 29, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    The market is fine, but AGNC should be considered unstable. The Fed stopping QE is going to crater bond prices and with them AGNC's BV.

    But then it's party time. If BV drops below SP, the mREITs can start doing SPOs again. They'll be buying prime paper with high interest, and no Fed interference. We'll have lost the 3-month div runup cycle, but the game of Guess the SPO Date will be afoot.

    I'm currently out of mREITS and surfing volatility, and because of yesterday's call on the top, I have a ton of powder sitting dry waiting for Yellen to yell "come and get it".

  • Reply to

    Bought puts..ouch

    by ajdoha234 Oct 29, 2014 2:52 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Oct 29, 2014 3:01 AM Flag

    Leaks, but not accurate ones, would be my guess. Abnormal action started after 2 pm ET. The AH pop was premature and got moderated. They didn't consider the full announcement. It was a good report, but not a total repudiation of all troubles in Macau.

    But hopefully the shakeout is complete. 15 months until Wynn Palace opens. Only need to gain $4-5 per month to hit $250 by then. The economic recovery in China and the revitalization of VIP gaming will help people realize that the best investment in the world is in a the best casino in the world when it's about to open into the teeth of a boom in the biggest economy in the world that also happens to be in the most gambling-crazy culture in the world.

    They haven't stopped building infrastructure to deliver customers, and they haven't stopped building accomodations and amusements on Hengqin to help keep customers in the general vicinity. All the things people were speculating on last winter are still in play, and due to come back around on the profit jukebox.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Oct 29, 2014 2:52 AM Flag

    (rakes in the pot)

  • Reply to

    Any chance of a special div to be announced?

    by spittinimage6 Oct 28, 2014 10:33 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Oct 29, 2014 2:47 AM Flag

    As I mentioned elsewhere, WYNN was paying big divs the past few years because it was making gobs of Maccanese profits like all the other casinos, but not building new properties like they were (skipped Singapore, got blocked by indian competitors with political juice in Florida, told Okada under no circumstances does the company want Manila to expand, got a taste in Philly and it tasted rotten, and slow-played Cotai). So the cash was piling up and Steve decided it should be distributed until a project could be started. I was surprised he did a big div last year, considering Wynn Palace was already under development. This year he's diverted the cash to reinvestment, because Cotai is in full swing and Everett is about to go shovel-ready. This was expected. It's a true investment of what otherwise would just be cash in shareholder pockets. We'll get paid off in spades when the doors open on Wynn Palace, doubling productive capacity in Macau just as demand is predicted to be ramping up hard (according to the gaming authority's economists), and Boston will be a little sugar on top (and the best place to stay in the state). And then it will be time to start building in Japan.

    So divs will remain moderate for a few years, but equity should ramp to make up for it. Still calling for 250+ by the opening of Wynn Palace. The turmoil in Macau didn't change that, it just made it a less conservative prediction, and the new economic data make it conservative again.

  • Reply to

    Any chance of a special div to be announced?

    by spittinimage6 Oct 28, 2014 10:33 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Oct 29, 2014 2:33 AM Flag

    The ex-date will be Nov. 10.

    (For those who don't get it: the record date de facto respects shares being held back for T+3 settlement; so anyone holding on the 3rd business day prior to the record date can actually hang on to the shares until the record date, and everyone will, because that's how brokers work. So the first ex-div date is the day after the last cum-div date, or the record date minus two trading days.

    For those who want to get really wonky: the record date respects T+3, but not because the rules say so; the R-2 rule is set by FINRA by fiat, without referring to settlement delays. I suppose that keeps the law a little cleaner in case someone accidentally or obliviously delivers the shares early. If they do, it won't change the disposition of ownership of the dividend, because, it's the timing of the sale that really counts, not the timing of the settlement.

    Super-trivial pursuit aside, if for any reason the dividend is more than 25% of the book value of the company, FINRA mandates the ex-div date is the day _after_ the _payment_ date, which is an arbitrary amount of time after the record date. That means the div gets sent to the person who actually has the shares in their possession (still respecting T+3, mind), and that person, if they sell the shares between the record date and the payment date, is responsible for receiving and forwarding the dividend cash to the person who bought the shares. I have no idea why this would be the case, but it must have been a fun fight to get there.)

  • Reply to


    by factscounts Oct 28, 2014 4:38 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Oct 29, 2014 2:12 AM Flag

    This company is a machine for printing money. The only reason any "analyst" mentions it is so they can get a little of the attention the company attracts. Maybe if we stacked a billion dollars in the lobby and let them get their picture taken next to it...

  • Reply to

    Earnings tomorrow= $200 + by FRIDAY

    by fucavnyc Oct 27, 2014 10:50 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Oct 29, 2014 2:09 AM Flag

    Uh-huh. $25 billion in handle and $700 million in income is "dead".

    You need to find a new hobby. This one is just covering you in your own spittle.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Oct 29, 2014 2:05 AM Flag

    This is a significantly reduced xmas bonus compared to recent years, but it's well known those large special divs were due to the company not making significant capital expansions (they began after WYNN missed the boat in Singapore).

    Wynn Palace and the new project in Boston will be reinvesting profits for a few years, which is a good thing, because it means more assets, more market share, more segment dominance, and vastly more income.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld Oct 29, 2014 2:02 AM Flag

    I'm tired of leaks of inside information.

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