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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

yourbestfriendintheworld 351 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 15 minutes ago Member since: Jan 12, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Jersey shore braces for casino closings

    by low_mac Jul 20, 2014 1:17 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 21, 2014 12:38 AM Flag

    "The market — motorists who are within a full-tank of gas from Atlantic City — is worth about $6 billion, said Israel Posner, executive director of the Lloyd D. Levenson Institute of Gaming, Hospitality and Tourism at the Richard Stockton College of New Jersey."

    It's actually worth less than $3 billion. But at least we know who to blame for all the overinvestment. People who can't add.

    The only question remaining is how this will affect Chris Christie. You know he'd be claiming to be the son of god if revenues were up 10%. Now that they're plummeting he's nowhere to be seen (and that's hard to do).

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 22, 2014 11:03 PM Flag

    Missing decimal point aside, Bankruptcy is AMD's only option at this point.

    It utterly failed to find a transformative technology to build a moat around itself, and now it's just another hobo trying to wipe windshields with a greasy rag. The only product segment it dominates is console game chips, and game designers are starting to say they won't even develop for consoles because the new generation started out behind PCs and are dropping further and further back all the time.

    AMD's window is closed. One tiny bit of negative guidance and it tanked 20% overnight. It can crash another 50-80% in a day when management starts sweating when asked about bankruptcy.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 22, 2014 11:04 PM Flag

    Haha. You had an ugly haircut on Friday.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 22, 2014 11:06 PM Flag

    Sprint owned spectrum, a unique product that nobody else can use in their territories, and had millions of customers paying them continuously. AMD owns nothing anyone wants.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 24, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    News shows three vastly different prices for the deal, and the market seems to have a fourth. What is so hard about the math?

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 24, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    How many are there and what do they own that common doesn't? Or is the common the class B (it can happen)?

    I think that's where the missing portion of the share price went.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 24, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    They should trade in lockstep until something happens. If you expect a breakup of the merger, today's action is your clue. QRE will drop (probably overshoot, too) and BBEP will retrace upward. If not, they're probably married.

    Unless somehow the market is misvaluing the A/B share comparison.

  • Reply to

    convertible shares

    by traderdave666 Jul 24, 2014 1:07 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 24, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    Is there anything else in this company's basement we need to know about?

  • Reply to

    Class B?

    by yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 24, 2014 12:15 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 24, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    I replied to this but it disappeared. i'm going to short Yahoo and ask them to move to Bangalore.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 24, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    Okay. I see why the lawsuit trolls are out. Apparently the splashy "$3B" number is enterprise value, and includes the debt. The actual price is only about a 20% premium to yesterday's close. That's weak.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 24, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    The lawsuit trolls provide the clues.

    QR common is class A. There's also a voting class B and a convertible class C. There's also debt.

    The enterprise value of the deal (equity plus debt) is $3 billion. But the offer of shares only comes out to $1.5 billion. That's ~20% better than yesterday's market cap of 1.25 billion, but clearly not a real deal.

    If management take the lawsuit trolls seriously, and I'm starting to think they should, then right now QRE's the better buy. But management may look at the litigation and BBEP may look at what it would have to add to the deal and the deal could fall apart.

    Your nice, pokey little income stock just became a gambler's nightmare. Saddle up and tighten your seatbelts, everyone. The captain wants to water-ski.

  • Reply to

    ambulance chasers

    by rwschell Jul 24, 2014 2:27 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 24, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    they may have a point. see my previous message.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 24, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Posts going missing.
    1 hour 3 minutes ago by yourbestfriendintheworld
    This topic is deleted.

  • Reply to

    div

    by bobbyjopro Jul 24, 2014 3:19 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 24, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    no reason for it to stop. and then BBEP will pay it.

    but here's my question. BBEP's yield is lower than QRE's. why would there be an increase in the dividend? much less an increase in yield after the reduction in share count for QRE holders?

  • Reply to

    Someone catch me on this, because I'm thick

    by coochy.cooty Jul 25, 2014 9:31 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 25, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    deal falls through, both stock retrace, you lose the purchase premium on QRE and get called on BBEP which takes back the sale premium and more. the market is heavily weighting cancelation here. but I think repricing is possible or management goes through and fights the lawsuits. more the former. but I'd like to see management respond before I make a move. like I said, this wasn't intended to be a gamble.

  • Reply to

    Someone catch me on this, because I'm thick

    by coochy.cooty Jul 25, 2014 9:31 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 25, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    I said "retrace", not "fall".

    BBEP dropped in response to the announcement and has dropped more since. If the deal is cancelled it goes back where it was, same as QRE does. Both legs move against you.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 25, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    There's heavy near-term option ownership on deep in the money QRE calls and BBEP puts. The price moves yesterday made both worth significantly more. The volume and price action today look like both sides are exercising and the shares are being dumped by both the callers and the put-upon.. Add in people in QRE bailing on their shares just because of the pop, maybe because of the new risk. If I could trust the legal situation more I'd say it's filthy oversold and a bargain-shopping buyer's market.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 25, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    QRE popped. BBEP dropped. They're now in lockstep, so if they go through the deal they benefit equally. But if the deal fails BBEP pops and QRE drops.

    So I just traded in all my QRE for an equal value of BBEP. No change in my fate if the deal closes and upside if the deal bombs. The divs are slightly smaller (4.6% lower income rate), but at the moment the divs aren't the main consideration..

    There is one risk bullet, though. If QRE demands more money, BBEP will drop and QRE will increase. I may be flipping the other way if that starts to look likely.

  • Reply to

    Oh. No S**t, Sherlock.

    by yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 25, 2014 11:03 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 25, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    That $80 million will be where the lawyers are aiming to settle, since they know the company's stuck for it. They could back out and pay it just to avoid the risk of paying more; and then they could get it back as part of the revised offer if there is one. Like I said, the vultures have a point. Up- and down-side risk are about equal on QRE. There's no visible downside risk on BBEP. It goes up if there's a breakup (and thanks QRE for its $80 million) and it goes up if the deal goes through because that's why you make deals. If it has to sweeten the deal to keep QRE in, that's the only open risk, but getting the deal, again, is a positive for BBEP, which will temper the hit to NPV.

    The biggest risk in all of this is if they have to pay more to the Class C holders. They're getting cash, while the B's and us muppets are getting the same BBEP common shares (though why the B's should get the same price as the proles is a mystery... I suspect they're the ones who tipped off the litigation trolls). The cash just disappears from the kitty, and gives us no shot at it in the future.

  • Reply to

    Oh. No S**t, Sherlock.

    by yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 25, 2014 11:03 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 25, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    About noon it looked like the arbs had given up, but then they came back from lunch.

    I'm keeping my eyes open for signs I shouldn't have switched, but I still like my chances.

AGNC
22.66+0.21(+0.94%)Oct 20 4:00 PMEDT

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