The sort of kid who wants an AMD-based gaming system is the kind who gets a scooter and calls it a motorcycle.
AMD's debt will kill it. It doesn't even take a total drawdown of cash any more. Just one stumble that keeps the quarterly income from being green, and it's all over.
AMD's non-PC businesses won't take off. They're stodgy, low-volume, low-margin lines of business. They can be out-competed by Texas Instruments and Microchip.
AMD's line of credit is not a healthy thing. All AMD has to do is make less than 5% net profit in any quarter, and the bank will take everything away from it. The bank would rather have everything AMD has, than have a few percent interest. They have AMD by the balls. You don't know the truth and certainly don't want anyone else to know it.
1. AMD is still a better short than long play.
A. If they have all that cash, ask yourself why they needed a ghetto loan for half a billion more.
B. Those account receivables belong to the recipients of account payables, unless Bank of America calls its loan in which case the payables don't get paid.
C. The evils, risks, and just plain stupidity of this loan have been explained many times. Search for "ghetto loan" and read those posts.
D. Q3 revenue was spiked by oversized first-batch orders of gaming chips, and profits were faked by moving scheduled costs out of Q3.
E. Q4 is unlikely to show that much revenue growth and even less likely to show a profit, given the large costs associated with paying off Global Foundries. Taking debt to pretend a profit should be criminal.
2. The payment to GF will come out of the payday loan.
A. They're paying full price for a load of nothing; this is not a good thing.
B. You just said they're not buying chips. So they're not selling those chips, either. Seriously, how dumb do you think people are?
3. AMD only landed a contract with Sony. The other two were simply buying from AMD on inertia from older business.
A/B. Both fake numbers. They reported exactly 1 million sold, each. Which is silly considering everyone knew that Sony orders were way ahead of Microsoft orders.
C. New are arriving at stores in dirbbles. Neither manufacturer has its head screwed on, and neither wants the "sells out as fast as they come in" to go away until Xmas. Preorders are being held up too.
D. Yawn. Empty marketing hype from a troll. You're padding your padding with dead cats.
E. It's spelled Mantle, and it isn't any more cross-platform than any other gaming library, and it's not any sort of an advantage, as nVidia has had similar technology for years.
4. AMD has several new products coming out soon.
A. Kabini APUs use MORE power and are slower than the competition, unless you consider the "competition" to be a Pentium-D or something.
B. Mixing x86 and ARM is like mixing orange juice and toothpaste. Nobody will have a use for it that they can't accomplish cheaper by choosing one or the other.
C. Intel has been mixing heterogenous architectures since they put a working 386 inside every 486. You simply don't know what you're talking about.
D. Kaveri's has degenerated floating-point performance and doesn't even approach Haswell in capability. It's another late and slow frankenchip from the masters of the unimpressive.
Why aren't they doing something about these lackluster prices?
Everyone else in the market is going up, but not AMD.
That's costing me money. I could be selling a stock that is gaining in price. Instead I'm stuck hawking this garbage.
Clowns. Apparently don't know how to read a financial statement. Certainly don't know jack about the semiconductor business.
The reason LVS almost died is the reason it's really not as good to own. Neither Wynn nor LVS is in trouble in the least right now, but if trouble arises, it's the weaker that has the higher chance of being killed. And LVS is that. There's also still the possibility it will kill itself by doing something stupid like spending $35 billion to build a city in Spain. Nonetheless, those who took that gamble got paid, and that's good for them.
I'm not sure how that relationship is a bad thing for Wynn. It would tend to paint all the commission's witch-hunting as hypocrisy. It would also tend to make the commission lean towards Everett. I'm surprised he's allowed to have that job with that relationship.
Regardless of activist politics, a casino is going in somewhere in that area. Referendum? Not going to have any effect. It isn't Foxboro, which had legitimate questions of 24/7 traffic and a change in the character of the town. Everett (and everyone else) would love the neighborhood to be improved by the addition of a high-gloss business by the river.
Wynn has the best product. Expect it to get the project.
Maybe never. GOOG and AAPL caught the BRKA bug and now everyone wants a megaticker. Splits are arbitrary and meaningless. Just hang on for Cotai.
Huh. There's still vulture in the fridge from thanksgiving.
Nobody dumb enough to buy AMD believes me.
What color would you like me to draw your shares in today?
Ashraf's questions. My answers:
1. Will the PC market be in perpetual secular decline, or will it bottom out and rebound at some point?
People have taken a dislike to Windows. Win 8 may be the end of Wintel. AMD could make some hay by going all-Linux. If something isn't done to diversify the laptop and desktop in the home user's mind (and knock $100 off the cost), it's just going to keep dropping until there's nothing left but workstation. Think 1980s volumes, not 1990s.
2. Can AMD's efforts to branch into dense servers and communications/networking infrastructure bear fruit?
Servers are Intel's even when Sea Micro is on the packaging. Low-power paradigms as well. AMD has nothing competitive here and no way to get ahead. ARM isn't going to help; Intel already took away ARM's moat. AMD's ARM efforts can only have value in synergy with their ATI cores, and then only if they install their best ATI cores in the ARM APUs, something they've failed to do with x86 APUs.
3. What will AMD's competitive position in the GPU market look like? Is the underlying discrete GPU market growing or is it stagnant or even declining?
Discrete will decline along with PC. And with nVidia holding a clear lead in tech, ATI will decline faster than nVidia will, the same as how AMD x86 got squashed when Intel had a hiccup.
4. How attractive is AMD's semi-custom pipeline? Can AMD build meaningfully on the success of its game console wins, or is this a one-hit wonder from a revenue/profitability perspective?
Anything with "custom" anwhere near it is hyperexpensive, especially when you don't have real nuts-up silicon design experience. AMD's experience is in making incremental changes to designs that will run for a billion units. Semi-custom could make their gross margins go negative. They's also have to give their fab partners more money every time they want a small run of a given part number.
Bottom line: AMD will never pay its debts.
Nothing about AMD inspires panic in a short.
You should know that by now.
Institutions will get back into trading AMD when xmas product flows start to make the wires.
AMD is going to miss projections, let alone approach pumper hype.
Now it's working. I bet something the vulture posted screwed it up and deleting it fixed it.