Rory's stuck. All his plans to dominate the high seas arrrr--er, are falling flat.
At least Lisa Su made herself a few extra bucks insider-trading on you clowns.
I will never have to cover.
I think we're watching the shorts climb out of QRE right now. Only reason for it to move so quickly towards the proper ratio to BBEP. This of course shoots me in the foot, since I flipped from QRE to BBEP to eliminate the downside (if the merger fails, QRE will indeed crash back to its own level, while BBEP won't; meanwhile, that risk is slightly discounting the ratio; and anything else that goes on in either company and in their production and competition will affects both of them equally because they're effectively one thing now; so BBEP is QRE with no downside risk, and QRE is BBEP with a big downside risk and a few percent more upside to gain before the shares trade hands).
Occupy never had any effect on casinos.
delete and repost. and no; yhoo did the last redesign, realized there's no money in pages people spend more than 30 seconds interacting with, and left it to rot. if they ever notice it's still here, I have little doubt they'll simply pull the plug.
About noon it looked like the arbs had given up, but then they came back from lunch.
I'm keeping my eyes open for signs I shouldn't have switched, but I still like my chances.
That $80 million will be where the lawyers are aiming to settle, since they know the company's stuck for it. They could back out and pay it just to avoid the risk of paying more; and then they could get it back as part of the revised offer if there is one. Like I said, the vultures have a point. Up- and down-side risk are about equal on QRE. There's no visible downside risk on BBEP. It goes up if there's a breakup (and thanks QRE for its $80 million) and it goes up if the deal goes through because that's why you make deals. If it has to sweeten the deal to keep QRE in, that's the only open risk, but getting the deal, again, is a positive for BBEP, which will temper the hit to NPV.
The biggest risk in all of this is if they have to pay more to the Class C holders. They're getting cash, while the B's and us muppets are getting the same BBEP common shares (though why the B's should get the same price as the proles is a mystery... I suspect they're the ones who tipped off the litigation trolls). The cash just disappears from the kitty, and gives us no shot at it in the future.
QRE popped. BBEP dropped. They're now in lockstep, so if they go through the deal they benefit equally. But if the deal fails BBEP pops and QRE drops.
So I just traded in all my QRE for an equal value of BBEP. No change in my fate if the deal closes and upside if the deal bombs. The divs are slightly smaller (4.6% lower income rate), but at the moment the divs aren't the main consideration..
There is one risk bullet, though. If QRE demands more money, BBEP will drop and QRE will increase. I may be flipping the other way if that starts to look likely.
There's heavy near-term option ownership on deep in the money QRE calls and BBEP puts. The price moves yesterday made both worth significantly more. The volume and price action today look like both sides are exercising and the shares are being dumped by both the callers and the put-upon.. Add in people in QRE bailing on their shares just because of the pop, maybe because of the new risk. If I could trust the legal situation more I'd say it's filthy oversold and a bargain-shopping buyer's market.
I said "retrace", not "fall".
BBEP dropped in response to the announcement and has dropped more since. If the deal is cancelled it goes back where it was, same as QRE does. Both legs move against you.
deal falls through, both stock retrace, you lose the purchase premium on QRE and get called on BBEP which takes back the sale premium and more. the market is heavily weighting cancelation here. but I think repricing is possible or management goes through and fights the lawsuits. more the former. but I'd like to see management respond before I make a move. like I said, this wasn't intended to be a gamble.
no reason for it to stop. and then BBEP will pay it.
but here's my question. BBEP's yield is lower than QRE's. why would there be an increase in the dividend? much less an increase in yield after the reduction in share count for QRE holders?
The lawsuit trolls provide the clues.
QR common is class A. There's also a voting class B and a convertible class C. There's also debt.
The enterprise value of the deal (equity plus debt) is $3 billion. But the offer of shares only comes out to $1.5 billion. That's ~20% better than yesterday's market cap of 1.25 billion, but clearly not a real deal.
If management take the lawsuit trolls seriously, and I'm starting to think they should, then right now QRE's the better buy. But management may look at the litigation and BBEP may look at what it would have to add to the deal and the deal could fall apart.
Your nice, pokey little income stock just became a gambler's nightmare. Saddle up and tighten your seatbelts, everyone. The captain wants to water-ski.
Okay. I see why the lawsuit trolls are out. Apparently the splashy "$3B" number is enterprise value, and includes the debt. The actual price is only about a 20% premium to yesterday's close. That's weak.
I replied to this but it disappeared. i'm going to short Yahoo and ask them to move to Bangalore.
They should trade in lockstep until something happens. If you expect a breakup of the merger, today's action is your clue. QRE will drop (probably overshoot, too) and BBEP will retrace upward. If not, they're probably married.
Unless somehow the market is misvaluing the A/B share comparison.