Ashraf's questions. My answers:
1. Will the PC market be in perpetual secular decline, or will it bottom out and rebound at some point?
People have taken a dislike to Windows. Win 8 may be the end of Wintel. AMD could make some hay by going all-Linux. If something isn't done to diversify the laptop and desktop in the home user's mind (and knock $100 off the cost), it's just going to keep dropping until there's nothing left but workstation. Think 1980s volumes, not 1990s.
2. Can AMD's efforts to branch into dense servers and communications/networking infrastructure bear fruit?
Servers are Intel's even when Sea Micro is on the packaging. Low-power paradigms as well. AMD has nothing competitive here and no way to get ahead. ARM isn't going to help; Intel already took away ARM's moat. AMD's ARM efforts can only have value in synergy with their ATI cores, and then only if they install their best ATI cores in the ARM APUs, something they've failed to do with x86 APUs.
3. What will AMD's competitive position in the GPU market look like? Is the underlying discrete GPU market growing or is it stagnant or even declining?
Discrete will decline along with PC. And with nVidia holding a clear lead in tech, ATI will decline faster than nVidia will, the same as how AMD x86 got squashed when Intel had a hiccup.
4. How attractive is AMD's semi-custom pipeline? Can AMD build meaningfully on the success of its game console wins, or is this a one-hit wonder from a revenue/profitability perspective?
Anything with "custom" anwhere near it is hyperexpensive, especially when you don't have real nuts-up silicon design experience. AMD's experience is in making incremental changes to designs that will run for a billion units. Semi-custom could make their gross margins go negative. They's also have to give their fab partners more money every time they want a small run of a given part number.
Bottom line: AMD will never pay its debts.
Nothing about AMD inspires panic in a short.
You should know that by now.
Institutions will get back into trading AMD when xmas product flows start to make the wires.
AMD is going to miss projections, let alone approach pumper hype.
Now it's working. I bet something the vulture posted screwed it up and deleting it fixed it.
Chart works again. List still doesn't. Must be part of the fast-food strike.
It looks like they hosed the 5-day chart thumbnail, too. Monday thru Thursday are missing.
Buncha script-kiddies being led by a kindergarten teacher.
The Message list and all the messages are there, but the Topic list is kaput after a few days ago, unless you select "All" in the timespan box, then you get threads from 2012, and then another gap back to 2006. Same thing happens if you're looking at a topic and use the arrow button to go back to the previous topic; it skips the same way the Topic list does.
Good job, Yahoo. You screwed up a piece of database programming any child could have done right.
Your track record of failure and masochism are spectacular, birdbrain.
If shorts had anything to lose they'd buy it up to $5 already. As it is we can barely keep crayons in stock.
Going from $8 to $3 in 2 years, soon to be $0 when the realities of the declining console market come to roost, and ARM turns out to be another AMD dog and pony show..
AMD is trading below its IPO price from 40 years ago.
It's never improved, and it's not improving now, cherry-picker.
End-user equipment has low margins. Intel has the ability to make world-beating high margins. Every once in a while its boffins get a hair up their #$%$ and try to pump demand by fronting a consumer product containing their technology, but it never goes far. Watches, motherboards (more OEM but still a stuffed product), cameras, set-top boxes. They're not set up to get enough productivity and profit out of those lines of business to justify the distraction from their (literal and figurative) core businesses. So they spin out the laggards and go back to their knitting and make bank.
AMD? Not so much. Sea Micro isn't a technology mover (it sells more Intel than AMD chips). It was a sweetheart deal for the CEO of Sea Micro who was a former AMD manager. Rory may have thought he could shift from silicon to plastic, but he quickly decided to stay with silicon and accept the much lower margins of the toy-chip business.
AMD is a three-legged dog with a gammy leg. It'll be put down soon, the way Intel puts down its toys, only this time it's all of AMD that will be done away with.
There you go. Don't mind the Dr. Pepper stains. They don't invalidate what has no value in the first place.
No, it's true. And the learning curve will be steeper on this one. And the total number of units sold will be lower because of the higher prices and greater number of non-console competitors. Which was the point of the original post.
1. AMD is still a better short than long play.
A. If they have all that cash, ask yourself why they needed a ghetto loan for half a billion more.
B. Those account receivables belong to the recipients of account payables, unless Bank of America calls its loan in which case the payables don't get paid.
C. The evils, risks, and just plain stupidity of this loan have been explained many times. Search for "ghetto loan" and read those posts.
D. Q3 revenue was spiked by oversized first-batch orders of gaming chips, and profits were faked by moving scheduled costs out of Q3.
E. Q4 is unlikely to show that much revenue growth and even less likely to show a profit, given the large costs associated with paying off Global Foundries. Taking debt to pretend a profit should be criminal.
2. The payment to GF will come out of the payday loan.
A. They're paying full price for a load of nothing; this is not a good thing.
B. You just said they're not buying chips. So they're not selling those chips, either. Seriously, how dumb do you think people are?
3. AMD only landed a contract with Sony. The other two were simply buying from AMD on inertia from older business.
A/B. Both fake numbers. They reported exactly 1 million sold, each. Which is silly considering everyone knew that Sony orders were way ahead of Microsoft orders.
C. New are arriving at stores in dirbbles. Neither manufacturer has its head screwed on, and neither wants the "sells out as fast as they come in" to go away until Xmas. Preorders are being held up too.
D. Yawn. Empty marketing hype from a troll. You're padding your padding with dead cats.
E. It's spelled Mantle, and it isn't any more cross-platform than any other gaming library, and it's not any sort of an advantage, as nVidia has had similar technology for years.
4. AMD has several new products coming out soon.
A. Kabini APUs use MORE power and are slower than the competition, unless you consider the "competition" to be a Pentium-D or something.
B. Mixing x86 and ARM is like mixing orange juice and toothpaste. Nobody will have a use for it that they can't accomplish cheaper by choosing one or the other.
C. Intel has been mixing heterogenous architectures since they put a working 386 inside every 486. You simply don't know what you're talking about.
D. Kaveri's has degenerated floating-point performance and doesn't even approach Haswell in capability. It's another late and slow frankenchip from the masters of the unimpressive.