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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Message Board

yourbestfriendintheworld 1019 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Jan 12, 2007
  • Reply to

    Attempt #2: What would happen if:

    by frankjac2001 21 hours ago
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 3 hours ago Flag

    (spit-take)

    AMD doesn't have anything worth even $3/share right now but its debt. Selling ATI whole might not bring $2 billion. The rest of the parts, nobody would want. Far too much competition it just doesn't compete with.

    But they can't sell ATI because it's in the consoles.

    They could spin off the console business, including ATI and the x86 license, but that would have to take debt with it. So that doesn't solve the problem, since it's identical to just writing off all the other businesses.

    AMD is a 9-headed snake that's tied itself in knots.

  • Reply to

    Attempt #2: What would happen if:

    by frankjac2001 21 hours ago
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 3 hours ago Flag

    The APU IP isn't worth nearly that much. Anyone else can develop the same thing from the same principles.

    Also, since console is APU-based, you'll have to cut your profit estimates, as anyone getting the APU IP will want the royalties from the only thing currently using that IP. Otherwise, you can cut the selling price of the IP by 80%.

    And selling those things means AMD has zero future growth path. No IP, no innovation, no next generation, no new revenue to replace the console chips at EOL. The console OEMs will move on to whoever got the ATI IP.

    AMD can't get out from under its debt, can't make anything significantly profitable from what it has, and can't be bought by someone who could revamp it properly.

    This is why I never give a long an even break. They're making a terrible mistake failing to see the totality of the situation.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld 4 hours ago Flag

    If they don't cut the div, this ticker has a massive yield. If they confirm the div through next year, or even next quarter, how much does the stock price go up?

  • Reply to

    OPEC nations see stocks rising

    by slawsonjames Dec 21, 2014 7:20 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld 6 hours ago Flag

    They'll be successful in driving prices to the inflection point where they can modulate shale production and maximize production control with minimal price changes. Their profitability is assured by minuscule costs.

  • Reply to

    2 wins 1 billion 2016.

    by vicpapaik Dec 19, 2014 3:40 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 20, 2014 12:31 AM Flag

    So AMD is going to be saved by replacing a few ten year old machines that, seriously, nobody is thinking of replacing. If they're still running that hardware it's because they're running software that can't be updated, have no budget for upgrades, or don't have authority to validate new equipment to do that job.

    All your doing is begging for abuse by posting this stupid garbage.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 20, 2014 12:21 AM Flag

    Everyone knows you're the same person and everyone is smarter than you. Masochist.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    Holidays in the middle of the week for two weeks. Corporate shutdowns a-mundo. No normal trading going on until the 5th.

    Silly season. Santa Claus rally. Free stuff from far away relations. Mass hysteria!

  • Reply to

    citi

    by guangqingyao Dec 19, 2014 11:40 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 4:00 PM Flag

    They're in a business that never does anything new and can be made to come back if the economy is in existence and the risktaking hasn't emptied the tank. Its bulk actually saved it, because it fell squarely into the "too big to fail" category where its failure would have affected too many other people and businesses, so we as a nation propped it up until it could walk on its own.

    AMD has to find new products and redevelop its production process continuously to grow. It doesn't have that capability any more; hasn't had it for nearly a decade. It flails, trying small things to grab onto hope, but it has no hope of finding anything big enough to get it back to the sort of major producer it once was. And nobody would miss it if it went away. Its business is too small and too irrelevant. Sony and Microsoft and Nintendo will get their console APUs directly from the Arabs. No AMD needed. And literally no other market would miss them. None is missing them now, when they're producing almost nothing in those segments, after having been a major player in PC, Server, and notebook. They long ago vanished from embedded, and never had a presence in mobile. There's no reason for the public to take a risk on them. Especially since they're an Arab company.

    So no, comparing AMD to C and expecting similar results is not a reasonable thing to do. It's just another vapid pump.

  • Reply to

    citi

    by guangqingyao Dec 19, 2014 11:40 AM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    They did a 1:10 reverse split, so their actual low relative to the current price is $9.70.

    They took TARP money, and paid it back.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    You have to wonder if somehow AMD was tipped to an impending rating cut to the C's. Not many companies get a chance to prep for that, and AMD is lining up its ducks like it's on a deadline.

    First it shifts exchanges so the junk-bond status doesn't kill their listing entirely, then it warns its major creditor that it will be having excessive trouble getting credit from anyone else in the near future so it will need some slack on its existing loan terms. The 50% discount to the covenant pretty much says the bank might as well value the loan at half the principal.

    So I fully expect a credit-rating cut, and willingly speculate there's an imminent cash-and-equivalents haircut coming soon.

    These moves are way bigger than any extra income it could make from a PS4 inventory refill in Europe.

  • Reply to

    Demand head-fake

    by yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 2:51 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    hard to tell when the world will clue up. the saudis can still make the graphs look specious on a whim. they have the cheapest production costs, and their only economic concern is their government budget. which is bloated, and which they can cut by fiat because monarchy. so a few of the peasants don't get a new mercedes this year.

    so supply may become excessive, even if demand is growing. US production increases are most of the worldwide production increase, and the Saudis are simply not backing down to preserve price. America as a nation wants prices low, so don't expect us to coordinate private producers to cut production. the price will have to do that, and the Saudis are feinting, firming, posing, and dialing it in.

    if there's a surplus, it's because of the production side, not the demand side, is the point.

    so I don't know if the price of oil will rise again before the hedges run out, and I couldn't recommend loading up here on that basis. it could drop back to the recent low if the commodity price remains where it is for more than a year, and that would more than eat up the yield.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Using GasBuddy I found a station in South Dakota selling the go-juice for $1.71.There's lots of sub-$2 numbers across the country, and almost everyone can find it for $2.25. Upstate NY seems to be the last open space with $2.60 type prices, but I'm sure they're still seeing that as a gift. Everyone will be on the roads for the next 2-3 weeks. If the weather turns snowy it'll be bumper cars out there. Stay safe.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    Re stories today about "declining demand", I checked the stats and EIA says (as of 10 days ago) that demand is expected to record declines in OECD (developed) countries in 2014 and 2015. But it's still rising consistently in non-OECD countries. In fact, it probably passed the OECD number some time this year. And the total is rising.

    So the stories aren't looking at the whole picture and they're misleading the market.

    (Google "EIA Global Petroleum and Other Liquids")

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    The facts are you're a masochist, AMD is going to die, consoles are just prolonging the pain, and you love it.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    I'm of the belief that there's one defense to those claims: reasonable investors should have known as soon as Rory was announced as CEO that nothing the company said thereafter could be trusted and that the share price would be guaranteed to be sitting on a loss when he was to depart. Blame the victim. It works in civil court, too.

  • Reply to

    I think its time to buy.

    by vicpapaik Oct 6, 2014 6:31 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    I had to check the date to make sure that wasn't posted from 2006.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    What doors? They sold those over a year ago.

  • Reply to

    Possible reason for 8A filing

    by feraltom2 Dec 18, 2014 3:02 PM
    yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    The part of the acorn that could grow into a mighty oak was eaten by a squirrel in 2006.

    The best you can say about AMD is that in a few hundred years some of its atoms will have propagated through the ecosystem and found their way into every living corporation then living. And that will disgust them, the way it disgusts most people to know there's urine and feces from the ancients forming parts of molecules in our bodies.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld by yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    Let's review:

    AMD has -6.3 billion in retained earnings.

    It has $4.2 billion in assets, of which $600 million is goodwill (overvaluation of acquisitions) or explicitly intangible, and another $900 million is inventory, and none is capital equipment or real estate. It has $3.8 billion in liabilities. So taking out the intangibles (including goodwill) and allowing for rounding error, AMD is between 1.0 and 1.1 billion negative on things it can sell in a liquidation to pay people who want to be paid their money.

    And it has $250 million in cash it can't touch for any reason.

    It's lost every dollar ever invested in it, plus every dollar it's ever made, plus every dollar it ever borrowed, plus an additional $1.1 billion that it never had and will never get.

    AMD has managed to squander its founders' fortunes plus an additional $7.5 to $7.7 billion dollars, and has nothing to show for it but a broken-down lemonade stand gathering dust in the garage and an arm cast signed by Jerry Sanders' mom.

  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 19, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    They get a few months as a CEO to put those magic letters on their resume's, and then move on.

    What happened to GF's old CEO?

    What happened to AMD's old CEO, for that matter? Anyone seen him? He's got a week left to clean out his office and set up the logic bomb on the network. He's already bombed the stock price.

AMD
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