The only quiet day is Monday, every gambit in the economic world gets a report. I expect huge volatility all week long, for the week past proved tapering premature by years. Unemployment drops to 6.7% because--massive numbers of folks have just given up, and Walmart and Micky D's can hire only so many.
So why did the little guy stocks do better than the Dow and S and P? They're the real driver of the economy, and they need low cost business loans, and that means keeping irates low, and that means--we could see tapering the taper sooner than later.
Another 2% got lopped off homes this past week, up to now 6% off the high. Will anybody get the message?
Can you hear me Yellen at the top of my lungs?
Jan 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Dec - +$44.0B +$44.0B -$1.2B -
Jan 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Dec - -0.3% 0.0% 0.7% -
Jan 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Dec - -0.1% 0.4% 0.4% -
Jan 14 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Dec - NA NA 0.1% -
Jan 14 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Dec - NA NA 0.0% -
Jan 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Nov - 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% -
Jan 15 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 01/11 - NA NA 2.6% -
Jan 15 8:30 AM PPI Dec - 0.2% 0.3% -0.1% -
Jan 15 8:30 AM Core PPI Dec - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
Jan 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Jan - 4.0 3.5 1.0 -
Jan 15 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/11 - NA NA -2.675M -
Jan 15 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Jan - - - - -
Jan 16 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/11 - 335K 333K 330K -
Jan 16 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/04 - 2875K 2835K 2865K -
Jan 16 8:30 AM CPI Dec - 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% -
Jan 16 8:30 AM Core CPI Dec - 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -
Jan 16 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Nov - NA NA $35.4B -
Jan 16 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jan - 8.0 8.0 6.4 7.0
Jan 16 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Jan - 57 57 58 -
Jan 16 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 01/11 - NA NA -157 bcf -
Jan 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Dec - 945K 986K 1091K -
Jan 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Dec - 1000K 1000K 1007K -
Jan 17 9:15 AM Industrial Production Dec - 0.3% 0.3% 1.1% -
Jan 17 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Dec - 79.1% 79.1% 79.0% -
Jan 17 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Jan - 81.5 83.0 82.5 -
Jan 17 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Nov - NA NA 3.925M -
Since I had two major health issues under the age of 40, I applaud your Darwinistic approach. The sooner people who don't take care of themselves drop dead the better off the rest of us will be.
Oh wait! You're just going to wind up in an Emergency Room paid for by the state anyway.
Never mind mooch, keep up the good work.
You might think that with 6 days lost between Thanksgiving and XMAS this year, smart retailers would leave the sale day door open a bit longer than 25 Dec.
Homes cars mortgages confidence, a light trading week, and the govt will paint a rosy picture they can always change next reporting period, so the start to the New Year, classically the next week after should "tell" the soothsayers the rest of the year. For next week, with budget "behind" us, and only the debt ceiling in the late Feb Mar, will it be eat drink and be merry? Traditionally, yes.
See how that is supposed to work?
30 DEC Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET
31 DEC TUESDAY ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET S&P Case-Shiller HPI ]9:00 AM ET Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
Early Close 2:00 ET
New Year's Day All Markets Closed
2 JAN THURSDAY MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET PMI Manufacturing Index 8:58 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET ISM Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 6-Month Bill Announcement 52-Week Bill Announcement 3-Yr Note Announcement 10-Yr Note Announcement30-Yr Bond Announcement ALL AT 11:00 AM ET Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET
3 JAN Motor Vehicle Sales EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET Charles Plosser Speaks 12:45 PM ET Jeremy Stein Speaks 1:15 PM ET Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 1:30 PM ET Ben Bernanke Speaks 2:30 PM ET Charles Plosser Speaks 5:00 PM ET
New Home sales is the big gremlin today, as mortgage rates have spiked so badly, mortgage refi's have hit the toilet--but--when will the 4% hit home prices under $600K took in the past six weeks hit the fan? And will the market view that as bond buying anti tapering friendly? And will the market believe that is a probusiness thing again? I can see the herd milling about, waiting for its one day a year of dysfunctional family reunions to grumpily return to the market on Thursday, their nuts having been thoroughly roasted on an open fire?
The market closes at 1PM EST today and after market floats along till 5PM. But I suspect not a creature will be stirring, and the mice have indigestion. TTFN.
If you're a chartist you haven't been helping the last fifty percent PM fall. Reflation is a myth built on printing money, that all wound up drifting to banks, not the real economy. Hiring has been frozen to date based on corporations hoarding cash. The next hit on metals and miners to avoid a crash worse than the fifty percent haircut, is to see if hiring post XMAS actually remains, and unemployment, however #$%$ the McJobs, continues to decline NET of people literally falling off the unemployment roles.
If those recidivist unemployed remain a glut on the market, wage "growth" will not occur in reality, and pressure to raise prices to the employed will remain high, all auguring against PM valuations.
Silver has an industrial edge, but it has fared worse than gold, a 50% versus 40% gold haircut. If Yellen prematurely raises rates by whatever means, tapering bond buying is one of those means (before reflation of real estate, now dissipating from homes under $600K, but still blasting away at those above $750K) CD's will become a real drag on even the stock market advances--that shouldn't happen till end of 2016, but Fed timing has sucked mightily the past last 20 years.
You might recoup some cash by selling covered call options against your shares, you can get some juicy cash for leaps, and invest the rest in high flying equities from GOOG to NFLX. That might help.
when all cross the land,
personal income climbed
(for most tho 'twas bland)
And looks like goods ordered
may take a small hit
and our fave-mortgage index
still just looks like tschit.
On deficits, on mortgage rates,
on house prices that fall,
on claims that climb weekly
on employment stalled.
All is ignored, stock worshipers whine
into empty skies on cholesterol dine.
But silver will falter
as deflation persists
Don't catch falling knives
cuts really hurt like tschit.
Dec 23 8:30 AM Personal Income Nov - 0.5% 0.5% -0.1% -
Dec 23 8:30 AM Personal Spending Nov - 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% -
Dec 23 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Nov - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
Dec 23 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Dec - 83.5 83.3 82.5 -
Dec 24 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/21 - NA NA #$%$ -
Dec 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders Nov - 3.0% 2.2% -1.6% -2.0%
Dec 24 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Nov - 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% -0.1%
Dec 24 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Oct - NA NA 0.3% -
Dec 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Nov - 430K 433K 444K -
Dec 26 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/21 - 350K 350K 379K -
Dec 26 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 12/14 - 2850K 2850K 2884K -
Dec 27 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 12/21 - NA NA -285 bcf -
Dec 27 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 12/21 - NA NA -2.941M
See what I am getting at? Can you hear me? How about $5 upside potential in DAYS???
For those who want to walk up to the divvy on the 17th, which is also option expiration? See you about $2.5-$4 higher, if history prevails.
Measuring jobs during the XMAS season miscues the actual economy, the 7.0% unemployment figure is about to take a bust, but not until January is reported and the XMAS hire drifts out of the economy. In the meantime you don't fight the ticker. Silver is up on the dollar decline, but I think it is short lived -- for the next six weeks for you swing traders can make money being bullish. When the truth is known, to be lies, you'll want somebody to love when the market sees what the real economy looks like, but not yet, not yet. It all converges with the FOMC statement next week, but it also converges with the next budget snafu in January, and the dawn that we are in bubble territory. How do I know? The "taper" rumor of May, just began to slice away at pricing of existing homes these past two weeks, about 2% has disappeared off the top of home values, which are only at August 2006 values. 1/4 are still underwater, and 1/3 more can just break even.
Those that say no taper are right, but those that say out of the woods are whistling dixie.
Dec 10 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Oct - 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% -
Dec 10 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Oct - NA NA 3.913M -
Dec 11 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/07 - NA NA -12.8% -
Dec 11 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 12/07 - NA NA -12.8% -
Dec 11 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 12/07 - NA NA -5.585M -
Dec 11 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Nov - -$140.0B -$140.0B -$172.1B -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/07 - 325K 315K 298K -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/30 - 2750K 2750K 2744K -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales Nov - 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Nov - 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Nov - NA NA -0.4% -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Nov - NA NA 0.0% -
Dec 12 10:00 AM Business Inventories Oct - 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% -
Dec 12 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 12/07 - NA NA NA -
Dec 13 8:30 AM PPI Nov - -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -
Dec 13 8:30 AM Core PPI Nov - 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -
Too much made of "insider sales" which was free money to those that sold. Now watch the market chase the monster divvy. I think %8.50 is easily possible, not to mention the short squeeze arising from good, if not specatcular results.
No Nukes for Iran, agreement to agree 24 Nov, should blast market forward, but those pesky home sales and valuations run headwind into that 100 basis point pop in full bloom this week, not to mention seasonal slackdown everyone's forgotten these past 20 years. My neighborhood already took one percent off the price top. Dysfunctional families will brave rains 27 Nov to gather and give each other indigestion 28th, crushing arteries and spirits everywhere. Mkts are closed because there's only so much dissolution you can stand, closed even half day Friday to give more time for the Pepto to work.
This week's govt sponsored mythology is below. It's not what's real--it's what's believed and how marketeers behave that counts. Keep watching the skies.
Nov 25 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Oct - 1.0% 1.3% -5.6% -
Nov 26 8:30 AM Housing Starts Sep - 900K 915K 891K -
Nov 26 8:30 AM Housing Starts Oct - 915K 920K NA -
Nov 26 8:30 AM Building Permits Sep - 930K 932K 918K -
Nov 26 8:30 AM Building Permits Oct - 930K 932K NA -
Nov 26 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Sep - 13.0% 13.0% 12.8% -
Nov 26 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Sep - NA NA 0.3% -
Nov 26 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Nov - 74.0 72.4 71.2 -
Nov 27 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/23 - NA NA -2.3% -
Nov 27 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/23 - 335K 330K 323K -
Nov 27 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/16 - 2875K 2875K 2876K -
Nov 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct - -3.0% -2.2% 3.8% 3.7%
Nov 27 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Oct - 0.3% 0.2% -0.2% -0.1%
Nov 27 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Nov - 58.0 58.0 65.9 -
Nov 27 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Nov - 73.5 73.0 72.0 -
Nov 27 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Oct - -0.1% -0.1% 0.7% -
Nov 27 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/23 - NA NA 0.375M -
Nov 27 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 11/23 - NA NA -45 bcf -