Minus 12.5% on top of 6% back to back downshifts? N Korea rattles, China cools, and bombings in Boston--it's hard to get worse news for US markets and those preliminary selloffs were on the capitulation that low irates are here to stay for the next two maybe three years. A bit of a bounce overnight, is all there is, but interestingly, the Japanese me too market which mimics the US 242 trading days of 250 is dead flat!!!!!!!!
More dismantled incendiary devices were found and neutralized in Boston. We need three full days of thrashing sideways and margin call cool off in the general market before I stick my toes into water filled with falling knives knife edge up.
Silver Lake is full of black swans, Chinese economy cools, and Boston terrorist attacks 2:45 EST--deliver a one two punch to silver which falls ANOTHER 12.5%. I'm surprised the attacks weren't blamed on the sequestration and US presence disappearing in a world where weapon system deployment depends on the availability of fuel. Operational dollars is the traditional place where defense gets cutbacks, so who knows what psychology affects those building #$%$ bombs. I guess the defense cheap shots are waiting to take place when not so obviously self serving.
Silver is off its all time highs by 50% and is at the retracement level of half the distance between all time high and low. We ought to get some good economic news today--anything would be better than the mess of sell sell sell building on itself for the bulls.
It's very treachy to be in the market right now anywhere, and as we all know, I stink at shorting, and we've been under the Bollinger bands for days now, not a place to buy or sell. Straddles make sense, but you can get killed in a stalled out market.
We're getting a bit of a bid, but it is just a bit. I won't even nibble till we get past the terrorist event, about three days from now.
50% retracement between is $23.50. Bear retracement is $21.50, bull in a bear is $25.50, and we are there already.
Is this the end of the market bull of five years, or just a commodity flush in anticipation of five more years of zero interest rates and desire to get into the equity side of the ledger?
Market sell off overseas and double top US menaces.
Minus 10% silver route in progress in the wee hours. Huge capitulation. Steer clear of falling knives.
Silver was crushed last Friday in a capitulation that left the market stunned. I suspect a head fake, dead cat bounce to the upside, and another takedown. Call it a slowing world economy in give up mode, the bears have the edge as there is little in the PPI to suggest more than a whimper of inflation. My guess, and it is just a guess, that five years of near zero overnight rates and #$%$ unemployment figures reported, hidden, and coming--just mean more of the same low irates and low inflation, and that has taken the wind out of the sails and made the shorts happy. Can silver go lower?
Straddles are called for here, and that is above the heads of the buy and hold and hope inflation makes it look like an investment is climbing. The old magic just aint working, and you can get killed out here waiting for sanity and logic to prevail. Until we climb to a realistic 5% unemployment and those jobs represented aren't PHD's working at Walmart we've got a lot of stagflation to look forward to.
It is not an easy market to make money. It's a crapshoot.
Earnings: Citigroup, Charles Schwab, First Republic Bank
8:30 am: Empire State survey 9:00 am: TIC data 10:00 am: NAHB
Earnings: BlackRock (BLK), Coca-Cola (KO), Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Intel (INTC), CSX (CSX), Yahoo (YHOO), Comerica (CMA), Northern Trust (NTRS), U.S. Bancorp (USB), TD Ameritrade (AMTD), W.W. Grainger (GWW), Linear Tech (LLTC)
8:00 am: New York Fed President William Dudley 8:00 am: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans
8:30 am: CPI 8:30 am: Housing starts 9:15 am: Industrial production 12:00 pm: Fed Gov. Elizabeth Duke
4:00 pm: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota
Earnings: Bank of America (BAC), American Express, eBay (EBAY), Bank of NY Mellon (BK), Burberry (London Stock Exchange: BRBY-GB), St. Jude Medical (STJ), PNC Financial (PNC), Mattel (MAT), Abbott Labs (ABT), Sandisk (SNDK), SLM (SLM), Textron (TXT), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Crown Holdings (CCK), Noble (NE), Quest Diagnostics (DGX)
7:00 am Mortgage applications 9:30 am St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 12:00 pm Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren 2:00 pm Beige book 4:00 pm Treasury Secretary Jack Lew on global economy at Johns Hopkins
Earnings: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM), Morgan Stanley (MS), PepsiCo (PEP), Philip Morris (PM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Capital One (COF), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), ETrade (ETFC), Chipotle (CMG), United Health (OTCPK:UEEC), Verizon (VZ), Nokia (Helsinki Stock Exchange: NOK-FI), KeyCorp (KEY), AutoNation (AN), Blackstone (BX), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Fifth Third (FITB), PPG (PPG), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Snap-on (SNA), Union Pacific (UNP), Amphenol (APH), Nucor (NUE)
8:30 am: Weekly jobless claims 9:00 am Minneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota 9:30 am: Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker 10:00 am: Philadelphia Fed survey 10:00 am: Leading indicators 12:00 pm: Fed Gov. Sarah Raskin
Earnings: General Electric, McDonald's, Kimberly-Clark, SAP
YDM will be back with an all new episode of the wekly economic calendar next week 15 to 19 April.
Taxing your patience, of course.
ADP employment 158000 not predicted 215000, refi mortages down but new home purchase requests up, the market doesnt have enough negative bias to affect PM yet, but general market has backed off a s
My fave the Russell 2000sell to took an undeserved drubbing yesterday as markets hid in the S AND P insead.
Today looks flatish, Europe is mired in Recession,
No wonder this country can't get a break, Yahoo can't add even with computer assist. How would you expect anything different from the average investor, which is to say the average institution.
Sick Europe will dampen spirits, and N Korea if it lobs anything into the air will heighten tension versus the BS of previous administrations (a nuke would quiet 65 years of BS IMHO). There's our buying and selling ops.
If Korea heats up and silver declines, it is telling you something about prospects for the metal in the next six months--and that is, silver will be depending strictly on its manufacturing side for growth in price.
Cyprus should not. With a nod to the stupidity of EU folks, who didn't explain, an "uninsured depositor" IS by economic definition, a guy who backs the bank in order to receive high interest--nobody in EU bothered to differentiate from the insured holder, who has an FDIC arrangement with the EU and should be held innocent--as a matter of fact, they were so stupid, they pressured the wrong guys.
So nobody should feel bad for the uninsured depositors, they took the risk.
Until the electronic run on Cypress banks is revealed, we've really no picture #$%$ is happening there really. Italy in the toilet Thursday, the swirling flushed waters of Euro sludge remain, but like a kid with ADD, we leap from headline to headline ignoring last weeks pop in unemployment and countless coll grads underemployed in Walmart nation. So be it. You don't argue with the herd. Predicting the bull run? Look at history.
History says another 20 percent, and silver and gold are not the places to be.
I hold my core position in silver with options sold against. Eventually that may make some money but, not yet, not yet.
Auto sales and construction spending rule the roost, but auto is the new house buy, and new construction should be flat to down. Will anybody care?
Now that is the question.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Apr 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Mar - 54.5 NA 54.2 -
Apr 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending Feb - 0.4% NA -2.1% -
Apr 2 10:00 AM Factory Orders Feb - NA NA -2.0% -
Apr 2 2:00 PM Auto Sales Mar - NA NA 5.5M -
Apr 2 2:00 PM Truck Sales Mar - NA NA 6.7M -
Apr 3 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 03/30 - NA NA NA -
Apr 3 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Mar - 200K NA 198K -
Apr 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Mar - 55.0 NA 56.0 -
Apr 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/30 - NA NA NA -
Apr 4 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Mar - NA NA 7.0% -
Apr 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/30 - 340K NA NA -
Apr 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 03/23 - 3050K NA NA -
Apr 4 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 03/30 - NA NA NA -
Apr 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Mar - 185K NA 236K -
Apr 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Mar - 210K NA 246K -
Apr 5 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Mar - 7.8% NA 7.7% -
Apr 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Mar - 0.2% NA 0.2% -
Apr 5 8:30 AM Average Workweek Mar - 34.5 NA 34.5 -
Apr 5 8:30 AM Trade Balance Feb - -$46.0B NA -$44.4B -
Apr 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Feb - $12.0B NA $16.2B
Jobless claims up 16000 over expectations, and market hasn't even reacted yet.
Wait for it.
NOT YET, NOT YET.... I caught their absence early morning also, I wonder if this is the thing to come on April first.
Nice move today in everything but my favorite Russell 2000 ETF. Tomorrow's another day, and it has to be, because Good Friday is a non trading day.
The Dow and Internationals may be unduly affected, even the S and P where internationals dominate, but the Russell 2000 IWM is dominated by locals in country little guys!
Looking at another 20% by 1 Jan '14, here we come!
Cyprus may be sending shivers down those who have the temerity to still stash cash in banks--but frankly Harlot, I Don't Give a Clam about protecting Russian Mafia overlords drug money. The problem is if it drifts over to the rest of Europe, and it sends chills down the rest of the world which thinks a bank is better than a mattress. Home sales and claims is more important, and of course that means the most impervious to any overseas levels of efforts are members of the Russell 2000. Been there a bunch past number of weeks.
So in the real world, not the world of Chicken Little, the prospect of Claims and Income is what I look at.
But over my shoulder, Cyprus looms like the Evil Dead. Scary without substance, motivational without meaning.
For when the bulls at Pamploma stampede, for reason good or bad, you don't get in their way.
Mar 26 8:30 AM Durable Orders Feb - 5.0% 3.8% -4.9% -5.2%
Mar 26 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Feb - -0.5% -0.2% 2.3% 1.9%
Mar 26 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jan - 7.5% 7.5% 6.8% -
Mar 26 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Mar - 65.0 66.9 69.0 -
Mar 26 10:00 AM New Home Sales Feb - 400K 426K 437K -
Mar 27 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 03/23 - NA NA NA -
Mar 27 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Feb - 2.0% 2.0% 4.5% -
Mar 27 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/23 - NA NA -1.314M -
Mar 28 8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/23 - 335K 338K 336K -
Mar 28 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 03/16 - 3050K 3040K 3053K -
Mar 28 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q4 - 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% -
Mar 28 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q4 - 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% -
Mar 28 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Mar - 55.0 56.5 56.8 -
Mar 28 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 03/23 - NA NA -62 bcf -
Mar 29 8:30 AM Personal Income Feb - 0.9% 0.8% -3.6% -
Mar 29 8:30 AM Personal Spending Feb - 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% -
Mar 29 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Feb - 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% -
Mar 29 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Mar - 72.0 72.4 71.8 -
Cyprus walls off Greece and futures roar, SLW too, from last night's performance numbers. Silver is backing off 3/4% though, so it may be bargain time.
Monday lines form outside Cyprus banks, and there may be blood in the streets, but hey, it's Friday, that's a long way off! Right? No?
No. Selloff this afternoon as the Cypriots don't plan on ruining their weekend with trying to bailout their country.
Got housing numbers that blew away estimates (never mind pick up in inventory means waking the sleeping giant of bank foreclosures and rentals waiting for flip mania) but nothing offset the ominous tit on a boarhog Cyprus, which has even the US asking, can it happen HERE?
Well of course it can, that is why we have 2nd Amendment rights, but we're still on the side of allegedly protecting savings from the banks-since about 1933. Now to the tune of newly minted $250K, and $500K if you're in a stock account. (SIPC).
Still the market is cringing away, SLW beats earnings and tacks on about a buck and a half--and silver tacks on about 1.25%--although about 1/2% that luster is disappearing overnight.
Slow news day means Cyprus deadline of Monday and Bank Holiday ending Tuesday means it is going to be wild in the streets if the Russians don't buy the gas for cash proffered by Cyprus, and kiddies, it doesn't look too good. General market futures are off a hair.
They find out your bankbook number and confiscate 6-10% of your savings. Only if you live and bank in Cyprus though.
Everywhere else Bernanke just degrades the currency by printing it to the tune of about six percent a year, and the yokels never know the difference.