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Vantage Drilling Company Message Board

zd60610 81 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 20, 2014 10:52 AM Member since: Oct 4, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Bragg and 1.2 million

    by cal1bizman Dec 16, 2014 1:57 PM
    zd60610 zd60610 Dec 20, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    in the future?

    VTG will never build another drillship again. They are done. It doesn't make any sense to take on more debt for an asset that will not generate any profits. VTG will be fighting to stay solvent as they go through 16

  • Reply to

    Newbuild Jackup Order Book

    by happyhorn52 Dec 13, 2014 1:00 PM
    zd60610 zd60610 Dec 14, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    He got financing because the value of the day rates and contracts were higher. RIG debt was down graded to junk. It would cost Vtg 11-12% to borrow. That doesn't work with a 450-500 rate.

    The bank debt comes due in 2017. That will also be higher.

    VTG needs to align an asset restructuring fast while eliminating all mgt incentive compensation and perks.

    Interest rates have gone up significantly against Vtg. The buy the debt and short the stock. That's the art trade that's happening.

    Cobalt is done. No way they make the next payment.

  • Reply to

    Newbuild Jackup Order Book

    by happyhorn52 Dec 13, 2014 1:00 PM
    zd60610 zd60610 Dec 14, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    He got financing because the value of the day rates and contracts were higher. RIG debt was down graded to junk. It would cost Vtg 11-12% to borrow. That doesn't work with a 450-500 rate.

    The bank debt comes due in 2017. That will also be higher.

    VTG needs to align an asset restructuring fast while eliminating all mgt incentive compensation and perks.

    Interest rates have gone up significantly against Vtg. The buy the debt and short the stock. That's the art trade that's happening.

    Cobalt is done. No way they make the next payment.

  • Reply to

    Did news come out today on VTG?

    by cmeny1977 Dec 10, 2014 3:12 PM
    zd60610 zd60610 Dec 12, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    If you believe that your in trouble. It's possible the 30mm shares that were held by the courts are being sold. They were never sold while they were being appealed. I am worried PBR is in some trouble here and I wonder if contracts can get canceled. Is that possible???

  • Decent chance Moni plays a part as they discuss cross-border payments etc. We'll see. Need something like this to light a fire!

  • Reply to

    HH

    by zd60610 Dec 6, 2014 11:50 AM
    zd60610 zd60610 Dec 7, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    -Not worth increasing your debt positioning for a break-even asset plus those ships are not worth $650mm in the environment. Closer to 550-575. Better ways to use your capital like buying back stock or debt then making another $60mm payment in January.

    -They will need to convert debt to equity to ensure the company is cash flow positive in 2016-2017 or dilute heavily. In an environment where day rates are 450-500 their model doesn't work. Hell, they can barely book profits now with some of the highest contracts in the business.

    -The market is structurally changing. This is not 2008. This is a reshaping of the energy complex. It will take years of underinvesing in projects to see oil hit 100 again. VTG wont make it past 2017.

    -They need to hord cash in 2015 so pay their bills in 2016 and Pray things are better in 2017. Unlikely.

    Thank you for telling to "sell and move" on. Saved my life HH.

    Someday i will play offshore drilling again but will be looking at names like SDRL, NE, and RIG which is where money will flow when the industry rebounds. Remember dry bulk. Never came back.

    I have friends in this stock so I am rooting for you although I still stand firm on my views on Bragg.

  • Reply to

    Can VTG survive this downturn?

    by cmeny1977 Nov 30, 2014 7:02 PM
    zd60610 zd60610 Dec 6, 2014 1:59 PM Flag

    Big difference. Asset restructuring or dilution will happen to help maintain Braggs salary.

    The stock price was always a secondary consideration for this Fraud Team.

  • Reply to

    Negative Vibes

    by see44h Dec 5, 2014 4:43 PM
    zd60610 zd60610 Dec 6, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    I won't even seriously look at subs until 2016. The banks are no where near ready to ramp up their commercial wallets. Hopefully existing customers are converting to the next model.

    Looking forward to
    Commercial announcements in a few weeks.

  • zd60610 by zd60610 Dec 6, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    Remember what I said. The playbook used in the 90's when rates were falling and you had inflation across assets including commodities is over. Bragg used the same playbook and in turn cost a lot of people including his own employees and mgt team money.

    He has no business taking on Cobalt other then he was probably paid on the side like he was with Dragon to take delivery. When the CEO starts making capital allocation decisions that don't aligm with shareholders you have to wonder. He also never got back all the $$$ for Palladium. Simple stuff.

    Bragg needs to settle with SU
    Cancel Cobalt
    But back stock next year
    Then seriously consider an asset restructuring

    Break even for Vtg on UDW is around 475K. Looking at 2016, the equity value is in question.

    I am sure Bragg is up for another nice n
    Bonus this year too.

    70 cents.

  • Reply to

    Leon Cooperman

    by baa_n_saa Dec 5, 2014 4:54 PM
    zd60610 zd60610 Dec 6, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    We need news unrelated to existing customers. How about some exposure out of China.

  • Reply to

    Leon Cooperman

    by baa_n_saa Dec 5, 2014 4:54 PM
    zd60610 zd60610 Dec 5, 2014 10:20 PM Flag

    Would love to see him clean visa shares at 30. Would make a strong statement

  • Reply to

    Virgin Money

    by see44h Dec 5, 2014 2:16 AM
    zd60610 zd60610 Dec 5, 2014 6:15 AM Flag

    Nice win. To put it in context Virgin has about 4-5mm customers.

    Solid but we will need 30-40 of these smaller bank wins and I believe globally we will get them which is why I like the model.

  • zd60610 zd60610 Dec 4, 2014 9:47 PM Flag

    IBM

    What details do you have on the rollout or traction?

  • Reply to

    IBM

    by mundhla Dec 1, 2014 3:35 PM
    zd60610 zd60610 Dec 1, 2014 9:29 PM Flag

    If you do some research you will see Mastercard and Telefonica are partners in germany and Brazil. The big play for Masterpass is in emerging markets where there are 1billion unbanked people. The mobile phone can replace the cash market for payments, commerce, and shopping. Huge oppt for Moni to capitalize on this opportunity.

    These firms are all interconnected in multiple countries through Zuum and Yaap etc.

    I want to see some action in China and more in the US.

    Boy I'm #$%$ they canceled capital market days.

  • Reply to

    IBM

    by mundhla Dec 1, 2014 3:35 PM
    zd60610 zd60610 Dec 1, 2014 8:08 PM Flag

    You can expect IBM will be bringing Moni into the majority of their banking relationships to pitch the platform. This has already been happening which led to the collaboration up to this point in the relationship. All of these financial firms ABN, Morgan, Schwab, Etrade, Merrill etc will also need to provide their investment and banking clients these capabilities and more. This is about digital commerce across multiple channels.

    Management needs to show more results in terms of partnerships. Subscriber growth will really accelerate 2H 2015.

  • Reply to

    What about IBM Watson computer relationship

    by monitise390 Nov 29, 2014 6:59 PM
    zd60610 zd60610 Nov 29, 2014 10:19 PM Flag

    Data analytics for shopping and buying behavior
    Security related to fingerprinting, visual, and voice.

    Moni is going to be much more tied to b to c commerce then setting up p2p tech.

    If IBM was going to buy Moni they wouldn't be diluting this week. This tells me they will be going at it alone. They will need a tech refresh to compete with wearables etc....

    I just don't love that they didn't follow through with capital market days. If they had so many deals to announce they would do that first before raising capital! That simple.

  • zd60610 by zd60610 Nov 29, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    How is it positive that we needed to raise more capital and then cancel capital market days?

    It also sounds like we needed to refresh our tech. I wonder if Moni contributing to the marketing effort for Santander and Telefonica.

    No other deals to announce???

  • Reply to

    Great MSNBC - Monitise

    by opensource585 Nov 29, 2014 8:41 AM
    zd60610 zd60610 Nov 29, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Not a good sign the cancel capital market days. Not good

  • Reply to

    Stupid timing

    by shemp_hat Nov 28, 2014 8:23 AM
    zd60610 zd60610 Nov 28, 2014 8:26 AM Flag

    Shorts love this. Cancel capital market days and dilute!

    Not great v

  • Reply to

    Monitise was on CNBC news 4.30 am!

    by lubrano.biagio Nov 27, 2014 12:28 PM
    zd60610 zd60610 Nov 27, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    Follow through Friday???

VTG
0.4986-0.0114(-2.24%)Dec 22 4:02 PMEST

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