fasebyao, agree with the negative implications of your observation that Silver can't hold a rally. Of course, the stock market can; everyday up....19 Tuesdays in a row....It is very risky betting against those trends, even after a reversal day, the likes of which we saw yesterday. The scam goes on...Now the banksters are working the Silver ETF. Yes, we can see it; they have the routine down. They buy the SLV, sell the futures as a hedge against the long SLV, and for market effect, and then redeem the SLV shares when the paper longs capitulate, and simultaneously cover shorts. This happens almost daily, now, with the full approval of the powers that are.
I see a swing move in silver to the $18 area as a possibility. If Monday's low gives way what's to stop it going there? The paper market, so much bigger than the physical, and the physical is stuffed up with big premiums. I suspect the combination is causing buyers to defer their moves. When price weakens to lower lowers how much more aggressive do recent buyers want to be when they can't get the product and the premiums are high.
If paper silver was selling for $15 and physical was $20, both falling, and delivery on the physical was two weeks out would you be more or less eager to buy than you were two or three weeks ago...to commit more cash...? Meanwhile the shorts are partying.
I fear the physical market may dry up, at least relative to its recent peak activity, and the whole price deck comes tumbling down. And once should silver go to $15 how will future buyers look at buying at $25, $30....with QE under discussion for a wind down....
Boy, I can get bearish....but this rigged market is working against us and nobody knows when that will end. That is a fact. Just about everything else I read about recover and higher future prices is based on hope and wild #$%$ guesses. Yesterday's reversal was a blip on the 2yr chart. Inflation concerns and higher velocity of money are the keys to a trend change.
I thnk I have the concept of this vehicle...suppposedly secured adjustable rate loans to companies...
Why is the dividend falling at a time of upward bias for interest rates?
Huge volume on 5/2. I wonder if it was because of the CNBC exposure, yesterday
Any thoughts on this decline in the premium to NAV? Are metal bulls turning their CEF in to buy the actual metal in such numbers to put the closed end fund at a discount to NAV....? A discount of price to NAV has been a buy signal in the past...Have things changed so...?
looks like you made a good buy...Is the dividend only paid once a year??
Monday we saw $22 and $12 quotes for Silver and AG, respectively. I am just wondering how far this pair could fall if an economic slowdown comes on , now...
Premium NAV must be near zero as of today's close, rendering CEF an outstanding means of buying the metals. The premium to NAV doesn't have alot of history in negative territory. Hoping these near zero numbers are a contrary signal, but that is mere hoping as the commodity markets are in sideways to down configurations.
fasebyao, my numbers come in a little lower than yours do...At $30 silver, for example I need 45% profit after tax on revenues. At 40% which is what I think will be seen I get a dollar...based on 10 million ozs. and 120million fully diluted shares outstanding.
It would appear, if Silver can't get itself susptained above $30, and averages $28 for the year, at a reduced profit margin of 37.5% we'll see AG sometime in the lower teens, based on a 15 times multiple. That is quite the come down from the 20s.... Until JPM gets out of the way, and stays out of the way, there's isn't much hope that silver will get to $50 except under very rough conditions, and it'll be likely to get smashed back down again once whatever the conditions were that drove it temporarily to $50 abate.
At $75 silver and 15mil ozs productionin 2016 I can see AG around $95, assuming a 25 multiple and silver's price holding relatively firm at $75 for six months or so...I have some good confidence the production number will be hit, much less that a relatively stable price of $75 will be seen and concern that such a multiple of 25 won't be accorded.
Right now keeping powder relatively dry but under $15 will start accumulating again for what could be a spectacular ride over the next three years....if we aren't blindsided by some deflationary recession and silver's price is allowed to find its free market level.
Good fortune to you. .